Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races

The Guru is Moving!

2008-02-24T12:59:00.001-05:00

Some exciting news: the Guru is moving!

Check out the new digs at:

Senate Guru
http://www.senateguru.com/

It will have the same thorough content, and even more interactivity.

For those who have been kind enough to link to the Guru's blog in your Blog Rolls, please update appropriately. Your support is greatly appreciated!

Thanks for your readership. Like Jack Black said in School of Rock, "I'll see you cats on the flip-flop."

Saturday Rundown

2008-02-23T12:58:00.002-05:00

You have kicked butt on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page! Tom Allen has gotten to 20 contributions, Rick Noriega has gotten to 30, and Andrew Rice has gotten to 50! Meanwhile, we're close to two milestones: Larry LaRocco is 3 contributions shy of 40, and the entire page is just $51 shy of the $6,000 mark. Can we get Larry LaRocco just 3 more contributions this weekend? You guys are great! Thank you so much!

Stu Rothenberg has updated his 2008 Senate Ratings. And the changes from his November ratings all look good for Democrats. The Virginia seat moves from "Lean Takeover" to "Likely Takeover," New Mexico moves from "Toss-Up" to "Lean Takeover," Minnesota moves from a "Narrow" incumbent advantage to "Toss-Up," and Alaska moves from a "Clear" incumbent advantage to only a "Narrow" one. All Democratic seats remain in "Currently Safe," except for Louisiana, which remains in "Toss-Up."

Oklahoma: State Senator Andrew Rice will liveblog on Firedoglake TODAY at 2pm Eastern, 1pm Central (in about one hour!). He will, of course, discuss his 2008 Senate bid to oust anachronism Jim "In Denial" Inhofe.

Tennessee: It sounds like former Tennessee Democratic Party Chair Bob Tuke will join the 2008 Senate race and probably announce next week:

It's almost certain that I'll be making an announcement, probably next week, that I'll be running against Senator Lamar Alexander for the Senate and I'm anxious to do it and I think it's important. ...

It'll have to be a ground game. It will be a ground game. I'm a Marine; I know how to do that. ...

The principal issue is change and, frankly, the absence of leadership. I've been disappointed, and I think a lot of Tennesseeans have, that Senator Alexander, who certainly has all the ability, has failed to deliver on leadership.

Tuke will join a Democratic primary alongside former Nashville Mayoral candidate Ken Eaton, former Knox County Clerk Mike Padgett, and former Green Party candidate Chris Lugo.

Louisiana: Some big names from Louisiana's business community are coming out in support of the re-election bid of Senator Mary Landrieu:

Jim Bernhard, CEO of the Shaw Group, and more than 20 other Louisiana business leaders will today join U.S. Senator Mary L. Landrieu, D-La., to discuss her success as a champion for Louisiana businesses and to show their support for her reelection later this year.

The group of leaders endorsing Senator Landrieu will include Harmony Center founder and Baton Rouge Area Chamber board member Collis Temple, Jr., and Louisiana Recovery Authority board member Sean Reilly, COO and President of the Outdoor Division of Lamar Advertising Company.

Senator Landrieu is demonstrating the broad range of support that will serve her very well in November.

Minnesota: If you look up "Norm Coleman" in a thesaurus, "bad for the economy" should be one of the synonyms. Meanwhile, both MN Blue and MNCR wonder why Mike Ciresi kicked $2 million of his own money into his campaign, with MNCR curious if it's a sign that Ciresi might go back on his pledge to have the DFL Convention determine the nominee and might fight on for a primary victory in September.

Texas: If John Cornyn is speaking, odds are he's being dishonest.

New Hampshire: Sprintin' John Sununu prattles on and on about his love of a regressive flat tax in front of a friendly right-wing crowd.

Which is worse for John McCain? His hypocritically close relationship with lobbyists or his close relationship with indicted Arizona Congressman Rick Renzi?

Stay tuned for a very big announcement from the Guru tomorrow!

Friday Items

2008-02-22T12:41:00.002-05:00

I haven't asked in a while; so, if Friday's your pay-day, or if you just want to see Democrats make competitive races out of Republican-held Senate seats that the GOP was hoping it could take for granted, please send a few bucks to worthy Democrats on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page. Pretty please!

January fundraising numbers are in; and, once again, the DSCC outraises the NRSC. This time, it's $3.95 million to $3.5 million, with a new cash-on-hand differential of $30.48 million to $13.2 million. And the DSCC's debt is down to $1 million.

Maine: Uh oh. It looks like the Collins camp doesn't have their excuses straight as to why Susan Collins failed in her oversight duties while Chair of the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. Susan Collins, back in 2004:

But Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins, chair of the Senate Governmental Affairs committee, says the panel will not be taking any action because Halliburton's contracts in Iraq already face probes by the General Accounting Office, defense auditors and the Pentagon inspector general.

OK, Collins doesn't want to be duplicative. Sure, it sounds like she's passing the buck, but at least she gives a reason. But, wait! Now in 2008, that Collins is being pressed on her lack of oversight, her Senate chief of staff-slash-political campaign manager (huh?) Steve Abbott says:

“It was all political,” Abbott said. “It was meant to be a theatrical side show.”

Hmmm... Were they important hearings that were just being conducted by other offices (the GAO, the Pentegon, etc.) or were they just meant as political theater? As much as Two-Faced Susan might try, she can't have it both ways. Sounds like the Collins camp needs to get their stories straight.

Alaska: Despite being under federal investigation for his backlog of scandals, Ted Stevens has officially filed for re-election. His reason for running again? "Extreme environmentalists." People who would like to see an end put to Stevens' peerless brand of brazen appearances of impropriety eagerly await the announcement of Democratic Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, who beats Stevens in a hypothetical match-up according to a recent poll.

Mississippi: The DSCC catches Senate-appointee Roger Wicker in his latest blatant hypocrisy, this time on student loans to make college education more affordable.

Colorado: All-around yutz Dick Wadhams is formalizing his paid staff role with Backwards Bob Schaffer's 2008 Senate campaign. You may remember Wadhams from such greatest hits as George Macaca Allen's 2006 debacle.

Kentucky: Mitch McConnell is pretty unabashed about the fact that he's simply trying to bribe Kentucky voters to gain re-election:

“When you're in the position of (Barkley) or myself, we're in the middle of every issue,” McConnell said. “We all have one vote, but the level of influence is different.”

He said that can be seen in the amount of federal money Kentucky has seen over the years. From the current budget, McConnell said he's brought $500 million to the Bluegrass State. He also noted that through the tobacco buyout (which McConnell penned), $43 million made its way into Calloway County.

Forget that McConnell is amid the worst approval ratings of his career and that the majority of Kentuckians think he's ass-backwards on Iraq. Hey, if he can squeeze a little extra pork spending, then Kentuckians should just disregard his record of unparalleled obstructionism and shoddy ethics.

Oklahoma: Don't forget: State Senator Andrew Rice will liveblog on Firedoglake tomorrow (Saturday) at 2pm Eastern, 1pm Central. He will, of course, discuss his 2008 Senate bid to oust anachronism Jim "In Denial" Inhofe.

North Carolina: Republican Senator Richard Burr provides us with the creepily gushing comment of the day:

"If you really want to know what Elizabeth Dole is like, she's a rock star," he said. "When you go around with her, it doesn't matter whether they've known her their entire life or whether they meet her for the first time, they get this glow on their face."

Mr. Burr must only see the faces of the less than 45% of North Carolinians who actually approve of Liddy Dole's job performance.

South Dakota: Badlands Blue offers an analysis of why a Steve Kirby challenge to Senator Tim Johnson just doesn't make any sense.

Gosh, the supposedly anti-lobbyist "maverick" John McCain employs more lobbyists on his Presidential campaign than many lobbying firms!

LCV Releases Environmental Scores for 2007

2008-02-21T17:54:00.018-05:00

The League of Conservation Voters released their National Environmental Scorecard for 2007, grading members of Congress on their votes on legislation affecting the environment. A score of 100 reflects a record of voting the pro-environmental way every time on the tracked legislation; a score of zero, of course, reflects a wholly anti-environmental voting record on the tracked legislation. Tracked legislation included bills on CAFE standards, renewable energy, offshore drilling, and much more. So let's go to the scores:

GOP Senators Running for Re-election	2007 Score	'03-'04 Score	Dem Senators Running for Re-election	2007 Score	'03-'04 Score
Lamar Alexander (TN)	33%	4%	Max Baucus (MT)	67%	52%
John Barrasso (WY)	33%	n/a	Joe Biden (DE)	67%	92%
Saxby Chambliss (GA)	7%	0%	Richard Durbin (IL)	93%	88%
Thad Cochran (MS)	0%	0%	Tom Harkin (IA)	87%	73%
Norm Coleman (MN)	33%	16%	Tim Johnson (SD)	33%*	52%
Susan Collins (ME)	100%	64%	John Kerry (MA)	93%	44%**
John Cornyn (TX)	0%	4%	Mary Landrieu (LA)	53%	32%
Elizabeth Dole (NC)	7%	8%	Frank Lautenberg (NJ)	93%	92%
Mike Enzi (WY)	13%	0%	Carl Levin (MI)	67%	88%
Lindsey Graham (SC)	7%	8%	Mark Pryor (AR)	60%	48%
Jim Inhofe (OK)	0%	4%	Jack Reed (RI)	93%	96%
Mitch McConnell (KY)	7%	0%	Jay Rockefeller (WV)	73%	84%
Pat Roberts (KS)	0%	0%
Jeff Sessions (AL)	13%	4%
Gordon Smith (OR)	73%	28%
Ted Stevens (AK)	27%	4%
John Sununu (NH)	53%	36%
GOP Senators' Average	23.9%	11.3%	Dem Senators' Average	73.3%	70.1%

*missed significant number of votes due to illness - counts in LCV ratings as negative
**only rating in recent career below 89% - likely an outlier due to many missed votes while running for President

Current GOP House Members Running for Senate	2007 Score	'03-'04 Score	Current Dem House Members Running for Senate	2007 Score	'03-'04 Score
Steve Pearce (NM)	0%	3%	Tom Allen (ME)	100%	90%
Heather Wilson (NM)	15%	16%	Mark Udall (CO)	95%	100%
			Tom Udall (NM)	100%	97%

A few observations become very clear:

1) Democrats are wildly better than Republicans when it comes to protecting our environment. But reducing overall energy consumption and expanding renewable energy development is not just about protecting our environment. It's also about - catch phrase alert - reducing our dependence on foreign oil, which strengthens our hand (read: reduces the Middle East's leverage against us) in the fight against terrorism.

1a) In 2007, only three Republicans scored above 35%, and all three were obviously from blue-leaning states (Maine, Oregon, New Hampshire). By contrast, only three Democrats scored below65%, one of whom (Senator Tim Johnson) only scored so low because of many missed votes due to illness.

1b) Both Republican House members running for Senate are clearly horrible for the environment, while all three Democratic House members running for Senate get A's.

2) Democrats are far more steady in their positions on environmental/energy policy. The reason I posted each Senator's score from the '03-'04 cycle is that it was the Congress right after their last election - in other words, the Congress furthest from their next election cycle. As such we could compare how they vote when their name is on the ballot versus when it's not. Democratic Senators' average score between 2007 and '03-'04 fluctuated only about 3%, but Republican Senators' average score between 2007 and '03-'04 fluctuated by a much larger amount, nearly 13%!

2a) Excluding Tim Johnson (many missed votes in 2007 due to illness) and John Kerry (many missed votes in '03-'04 due to Presidential campaign), the largest Democratic fluctuation between '03-'04 and 2007 was 25% (Joe Biden). Excluding John Barrasso (who wasn't in the Senate in '03-'04), there were three Republican Senators with fluctuations of over 25% between these two time periods (Lamar Alexander, Susan Collins, Gordon Smith).

2b) Clearly, Republicans in blue states (i.e. vulnerable Republicans) felt the need to posture themselves as more pro-environment than they really are when the electoral spotlight isn't on them. Note the shifts among these most vulnerable incumbent Republicans:

Vulnerable Republican	2007 Score	'03-'04 Score
Norm Coleman (MN)	33%	16%
Susan Collins (ME)	100%	64%
Gordon Smith (OR)	73%	28%
Ted Stevens (AK)	27%	4%
John Sununu (NH)	53%	36%
Vulnerable GOP Senators' Average	57.2%	29.6%

These most vulnerable Republican Senators nearly doubled their environmental rating scores in a desperate and disingenuous attempt to appear more moderate in their election cycle. Let's hope their Democratic opponents do an effective job of highlighting this obvious election cycle political posturing.

Thursday Tidbits

2008-02-21T14:09:00.003-05:00

Virginia: Broken record alert: yet another poll shows popular former Governor Mark Warner with a huge lead over - shall we say - less popular former Governor Jim Gilmore in their 2008 Senate race. Rasmussen Reports' latest numbers show a 20-point lead for Warner with a 57-37 margin.

Maine: Senator Frank Lautenberg will hold an endorsement event with Congressman Tom Allen today. Why is this particularly notable? Because Lautenberg was perhaps the most vocal Senator in calling for Susan Collins to hold oversight hearings on Iraq waste and mismanagement while Collins was Chair of the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Oversight, hearings that Collins seemingly never got around to holding.

Idaho: The 2008 Senate campaign of former Congressman Larry LaRocco offers an update on grassroots outreach, fundraising (including the Jon Tester event), and his new radio ad via a post on the terrific Idaho blog Red State Rebels.

New Jersey: Republican Senate candidates Joe Pennacchio and Murray Sabrin are accusing a third Republican candidate, Anne Evans Estabrook, of violating campaign finance law by hiding the amount of money she has put into her own campaign, ostensibly to avoid triggering the "Millionaire's Amendment," which would allow Estabrook's opponent to raise their contribution limits. Love those bloody GOP primaries. (HT: Blue Jersey)

Massachusetts: Republican state sen. Scott Brown, who had earlier suggested that he would consider a 2008 Senate challenge to Senator John Kerry, has instead opted to run for re-election to the Massachusetts state Senate.

Texas: State Representative and Lieutenant Colonel Rick Noriega has released his first TV ad, highlighting his military service, accomplishments in the state Legislature, and some priorities for when he's in the Senate:

Wednesday Evening Rundown

2008-02-20T18:21:00.002-05:00

The DSCC has released a scorching new web ad highlighting Republican Senators' own comments on Iraq, illustrating both how wrong GOP Senators have been and how committed they are to the Bush-McCain policy of endless war:

Idaho: Republican Idaho Senator Mike Crapo has publicly commented in support of Larry Craig's efforts to clear his name. So why hasn't Republican Senate candidate and Idaho Lt. Gov. Jim Risch done likewise?

Oregon: Here's another bad omen for Republican Gordon Smith: the Oregon Republican Party is over a quarter-million dollars in debt, including $35,000 owed to the IRS for "about two years' worth of payroll taxes it failed to pay for its employees." In other news, the Portland Tribune offers a glowing profile of Speaker Jeff Merkley as he juggles a Senate campaign with leading an accomplished state House while enjoying only a one-vote Democratic majority.

Nebraska: Rumor has it that Democrat Scott Kleeb will join the 2008 Senate race next week. Fact has it that, on Monday, Kleeb will announce... something.

Oklahoma: State Senator Andrew Rice will liveblog on Firedoglake this Saturday at 2pm Eastern, 1pm Central. He will, of course, discuss his 2008 Senate bid to oust anachronism Jim "In Denial" Inhofe.

North Carolina: Public Policy Polling's latest numbers see Elizabeth Dole's approve-disapprove at a lousy 43-32, but she still manages to cling to the 50% mark against her Democratic challengers, leading State Senator Kay Hagan 50-33 and businessman Jim Neal 50-29. Part of the explanation for the gap between Dole and the Dems is the Dems' lag with key constituencies. Both Democrats have the support of less than 55% of registered Democrats and less than 45% of African-Americans. Meanwhile, Dole has filed the paperwork to make her re-election bid official.

New Mexico: Republican Congresscritters Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson matched up in a GOP Senate primary debate yesterday, and the mud flew. Wilson attacked Pearce for a vote against more funding for border patrol agents and a vote for a plan that included the closure of a local Air Force base. Pearce painted Wilson as the big spending, big government type not welcome in real Republican circles. Man, this primary is fun! In other news, Pearce apparently thinks that legalizing same-sex marriage will lead to legalized pedophilia. Class act.

Good for Stanford University! Let's hope other fancy-pants universities with huge endowments follow this model and make top-notch educations more affordable.

Tuesday Night Round-Up

2008-02-19T19:26:00.004-05:00

Mississippi: Former Congressman Ronnie Shows has withdrawn from the 2008 Senate race to succeed Trent Lott. This clears the way for former Governor Ronnie Musgrove as the Democrat in the race against ethically questionable Republican Senate-appointee Roger Wicker. In his statement, Shows gets behind Musgrove's candidacy:

Ronnie Musgrove has a long history of working with all Mississippians to bring about change and I believe he is now our best hope to be the Independent Voice this state needs in Washington. I look forward in the coming months to helping Governor Musgrove win this election so Mississippi will have a Senator who will work to end the partisan bickering that prevents Washington from getting anything done.

This race is expected to be very tight, with one poll showing Musgrove with a lead and another showing Wicker with a lead.

Oregon: Political commentator for The Oregonian, Jeff Mapes, reports on new Rasmussen Reports polling numbers on the 2008 Senate race. Both Democrats hold Republican Gordon Smith under 50%, but the gap is in double digits. Smith leads Oregon state House Speaker Jeff Merkley 48-30 and activist Steve Novick 48-35. Mapes doesn't think much can be made of the 5-point difference between Merkley's and Novick's results, but notes that the advantage still lies with Smith.

Idaho: Former Congressman Larry LaRocco has released his radio ad taking on Republican Jim Risch's broken promises on taxes, and it is scathing. You can listen to it online or read the text (in PDF).

South Dakota: Republicans continue to insist that they will find a top tier opponent for Senator Tim Johnson. With state rep. Joel Dykstra and businessman Sam Kephart looking like absolutely no match whatsoever for Senator Johnson, former Lt. Gov. Steve Kirby is reportedly considering a bid. Kirby was last seen finishing a distant third in the Republican gubernatorial primary in 2002. A decision from Kirby is expected "by the end of the month." Amongst the other names bandied about is Republican former Gov. Bill Janklow who, some of us may remember, killed a man in 2003. Bottom of the barrel much?

Montana: Senator Max Baucus made his 2008 Senate re-election bid official by filing with the Montana Secretary of State's office this morning.

Tennessee: Former Knox County Clerk Mike Padgett is jumping into the 2008 Democratic Senate primary race to determine Lamar Alexander's opponent.

Tuesday Items

2008-02-19T12:37:00.001-05:00

Maine: It has now been three weeks since I sent my open e-mail to Susan Collins' communications staff about hearings she held (or didn't hold) during her tenure as Chair of the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. I guess I'll just have to send it again and hope for a response.

Minnesota: Rasmussen Reports just released a poll showing Al Franken with a narrow 49-46 lead over Smilin' Norm Coleman (and Coleman with a narrow 47-45 lead over Mike Ciresi). This represents an overall ten point gain for Al Franken since Rasmussen's October poll showing Coleman with a 49-42 lead. This is also the second polling operation to see Franken with a narrow lead over Coleman, but Coleman with a narrow lead over Ciresi, following a Minnesota Public Radio poll conducted at the end of January.

Louisiana: Despite the support of former Governor Jeb Bush's political machine and an edge in the polls within days of the primary, Mitt Romney managed to lose the Florida Republican primary to John McCain by almost 100,000 votes. Romney's campaign director in Florida was Mandy Fletcher, who is now joining the campaign of recent-Republican state Treasurer John Neely Kennedy. With Fletcher's recent experience in stunning losses, we hope more of the same is brought to Treasurer Kennedy's campaign against Senator Mary Landrieu. Does Fletcher have extensive familiarity with the political landscape of Louisiana, at least? Says Fletcher, "The only two people I know in Louisiana is a guy from high school who works for the Saints and Alan Levine." We'll take that as a "No."

Idaho: Serving as another signal that Democrats across the country are committed to a competitive Senate race in Idaho, Montana Senator Jon Tester will be the special guest at a fundraiser in early March for Senate candidate and former Congressman Larry LaRocco. Also, today is the day that LaRocco will unveil his new radio ad criticizing Republican Jim Risch for dishonestly breaking his promise regarding tax increases.

New Mexico and Colorado: The Udall boys, Congressman Tom and Mark, get some great press in Outdoors Magazine in a profile that outlines one of the methods by which Democrats have worked to reclaim the Mountain West:

They've positioned themselves as conservationists, forging alliance with sportsmen and farmers while painting Republicans as tools for mining and gas.

The Democratic agenda clearly works best for Americans. I fully expect Congressmen Udall to effectively make the case to their respective states in this regard.

Tennessee: Former Nashville Mayoral candidate Kenneth Eaton is about to enter the 2008 Senate race against Lamar Alexander. On the Democratic side, only former Green Party member Chris Lugo is in the race, while former Tennessee Democratic Party Chair Bob Tuke continues to consider a bid.

Over at Booman Tribune, an analysis is offered as to which Democratic Presidential candidate would offer the longest coattails to Democratic candidates for Senate, based on the Presidential candidates' performances in each state's primary/caucus. If you consider Virginia, New Hampshire, and New Mexico relatively safe Democratic Senate pick-ups, the next five tightest races are Minnesota, Colorado, Oregon, Maine, and Alaska. Four of those five states have already had their Democratic primary/caucus (Oregon's turn isn't until May 20). All four were won by Barack Obama, and won by a very sizable average margin of over 34% (ranging from 19% in Maine to 49% in Alaska). By this particular metric that BooMan analyzes, Obama stands out as a potentially much more helpful top-of-the-ticket for Democratic candidates for Senate than Hillary Clinton would be.

Monday Miscellany

2008-02-18T12:54:00.002-05:00

New Hampshire: In true dog-whistle political style, Sprintin' John Sununu makes it abundantly clear that he adheres strictly to the George W. Bush economic policies of tax cuts for the rich and privatizing social security.

Idaho: A very good sign for Democrats in the Gem State, including Senate candidate and former Congressman Larry LaRocco: the Idaho Dems are organizing more strongly at the grassroots than at any time in recent history.

Charles Barkley for Governor of Alabama in 2014.

Booman highlights polls showing Barack Obama matching up better against John McCain than Hillary Clinton does in several key states.

With massive recalls recently of goods like children's toys, baby food, pet food, lettuce, spinach, trucks, batteries, and now the largest beef recall in American history, doesn't it make you feel all safe and snuggly to know that John McCain vilifies appropriately regulating the marketplace to maintain consumer safety at every opportunity? In other words, shorter McCain: "Wiretapping law abiding Americans, good. Regulating industries with massive product recalls, bad."

Real Republican Records

2008-02-17T13:55:00.001-05:00

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, state Democratic Parties, and other organizations are making a concerted effort to make sure that voters know the real records of Republicans running for Senate in 2008. Here are some of the best websites chronicling the lackluster records, questionable ethics, and rife hypocrisy of the Republican Party's 2008 Senate candidates.

Alaska: Retire Ted unravels the web of scandal spawn by appearance-of-impropriety maven Ted Stevens.

Colorado: The Centennial State offers a two-fer, as Bob Schaffer On the Issues highlights Big Oil Bob's attempts to hide his right-wing positions on issues from Colorado voters, while Shifty Schaffer puts a spotlight on Backwards Bob's lies.

Kentucky: What's McConnell Hiding? asks a very important (and self-explanatory) question of the Senate's Republican ringleader and Obstructionist-in-Chief.

Maine: As its tagline makes clear, Collins Watch is charged with "keeping an eye on Maine's junior Senator," Susan Collins.

Mississippi: The Real Wicker highlights the ethically-questionable and all-too-cozy relationship Senate-appointee Roger Wicker has with corporate contributors and lobbyists.

New Hampshire: Stop Sununu illustrates how out of touch John Sununu is with Granite State voters and how he looks out for the Bush administration's corporate cronies instead of New Hampshire families.

Oregon: Stop Gordon Smith runs through the numerous hypocrisies and election cycle conversions of Gordon Smith, the "Say Anything Senator."

Texas: Stop Cornyn brings attention to the shoddy record of Bush-rubber-stamp John Cornyn.

Last but not least, Roadblock Republicans offers a thorough analysis of the Senate Republicans' record-breaking pace of obstructionism against a positive agenda of expanding health care, strengthening the economy, and bringing our troops home in a responsible and expedient manner.

You should bookmark all of these sites and pass the links on to every voter you know!

Saturday Briefs

2008-02-16T14:51:00.002-05:00

Idaho: The Democratic candidate for Senate, former Congressman Larry LaRocco, will soon be releasing a new radio ad criticizing the record of Republican Jim Risch. Word is, it will focus on Risch's tough campaign talk against taxes contradicting his record in support of a 20% sales tax increase that applies to all items including groceries, which of course significantly impacts Idaho's families. Meanwhile, with the Senate Ethics Committee's admonishment of Larry Craig making news, the Idaho Democratic Party is urging the state Republican Party to take appropriate action. Republican Jim Risch is going to have to publicly comment on the Craig scandal at some point, or he'll just continue to face questions. Better sooner than later, Jim.

Texas: The TX-GOP and Bush-rubber-stamp John Cornyn, devoid of any fresh ideas or positive record to run on, are resorting to more slime as they prepare a Swift Boat-style attack on State Representative and Lieutenant Colonel Rick Noriega.

Michigan: Republican Rocky Raczkowski, who was creamed by Senator Carl Levin 61-38 in 2002, has decided against a 2008 Senate bid, leaving state rep. Jack Hoogendyk as the Republican's likely sacrificial lamb. (HT: Michigan Liberal)

Kansas: Very disappointing news as businessman Greg Orman has withdrawn from the 2008 Senate race. Orman had shown significant promise, particularly by outraising incumbent Republican Pat Roberts in contributions from individuals in Q4-2007, about $450,000 to $350,000. This leaves Lee Jones as the Democrat in the race. In 2004, Jones was defeated soundly by Republican Sam Brownback, 69-28.

Oregon: Gordon Smith, the "Say Anything Senator," has been caught in yet another election cycle hypocrisy, this time on health care.

South Carolina: Despite earlier rhetoric to the contrary, Lindsey Graham is getting very comfortable with waterboarding.

Mississippi: Democratic former State Representative Erik Fleming, who is challenging Thad Cochran this year, shares his thoughts on the race via Mississippi blog Cotton Mouth.

Friday Very Quick Hits

2008-02-15T12:21:00.002-05:00

Deepest condolences go out to the Northern Illinois University community as they deal with the aftermath of the latest in what sadly feels like a spate of shootings on college campuses.

Maine: Best wishes for a full recovery go out to Diana Allen, wife of Congressman Tom Allen, as she responds to her recent diagnosis of breast cancer. Very fortunately, the malignancy was detected in its very early stages by a routine mammogram, leading to a positive prognosis for recovery. Let that be a reminder that early detection is the best defense.

Michigan: Republican state rep. Jack Hoogendyk is willing to put himself up as a sacrificial lamb against Senator Carl Levin. Levin last won re-election in 2002 by a 61-38 margin. Nice knowing you, Jack.

New Hampshire: The League of Conservation Voters has endorsed popular former Governor Jeanne Shaheen in her 2008 Senate bid. That's hardly a surprise given Republican John Sununu's atrocious record on energy and the environment.

Oregon: Gordon Smith and his staff are downright afraid to meet with constituents to discuss issues, even with hunters who are typically considered part of the Republican base. Well, Gordo, there's no hiding on Election Day.

Happy Valentine's Day

2008-02-14T13:48:00.002-05:00

NRSC Chair John Ensign is once again publicly chiding Republican Senators for not contributing enough to the NRSC. I guess times must be really tough over at the NRSC. And Ensign must be really concerned about how bad the 2008 Senate race results will make him look.

Minnesota: Holy cow. Republican Norm Coleman could face a big-time 2008 Senate primary challenge: former Senator Rod Grams. Commented Grams, "I haven’t said yes; I haven’t said no." With both polls and dollars trending against Coleman, a truly difficult primary could likely prove terminal for his re-election bid. Go Grams! Meanwhile, a new Survey USA poll again sees Coleman and Al Franken neck and neck, but sees Mike Ciresi falling 11 points behind Coleman. Expect the Franken camp to point this poll out to every DFL Convention delegate.

Colorado: Rasmussen Reports sees a dead heat in the 2008 Senate race between Democrat Mark Udall and Republican Bob Schaffer, though Udall leads among independents by a 43-32 margin.

Alaska: Former Unalaska city councilmember Rocky Caldero has withdrawn his candidacy from the 2008 Senate race, and has even pre-endorsed Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich should Begich enter the race.

New Mexico: The filing deadline for the Land of Enchantment passed this week and Congressman Tom Udall was the only Democrat to file for Senate. Republican Congresscritters Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson were the only filers for the GOP.

Mississippi: Republican Thad Cochran's pork-barrel earmark tally is approaching $1 billion. Couple that with Robert Novak calling ethically-questionable Republican Senate-appointee Roger Wicker "a poster child for an earmark moratorium" and you see a clear earmark addiction among Mississippi Republicans.

Arizona: John McCain's Senate office says that he has "no current plans" to resign his Senate seat as he campaigns for President. Note that, if he does resign mid-term, state law requires that the gubernatorial appointment to fill the vacancy until a special election be of the same political Party as the resigning officeholder.

The Senate Ethics Committee has issued Republican Larry Craig a "letter of admonition" in response to the events surrounding his airport bathroom arrest. So we know that the Senate Ethics Committee does, in fact, exist. Still, they have a great deal more work to do.

Holy cow! Former Republican Senator Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island is endorsing Democratic Senator Barack Obama for President.

Wednesday Quick Hits

2008-02-13T13:28:00.002-05:00

North Carolina: A new Survey USA poll on the 2008 Democratic Senate primary sees State Senator Kay Hagan and businessman Jim Neal neck and neck, with over one-third of respondents still undecided.

Oregon: Speaker Jeff Merkley has a terrific post up on both The Huffington Post and VetVoice discussing steps our government must take to fulfill its commitment to our veterans.

Idaho: Hey, interesting news: Republican Jim Risch is a paranoid liar. Why do I say that? In another recent frantic fundraising appeal, Risch writes:

Last year in neighboring Montana, conservative Republican U.S. Senator Conrad Burns was defeated in large part due to and [sic] a huge influx of cash from wealthy Democrat [sic] donors in left-wing bastions like New York City, Hollywood, Seattle, Chicago, and San Francisco!

OK, ummm, there are so many things wrong with this. Here are three off the top of my head:
1) I think Burns' biggest concern wasn't fundraising but his ethically-questionable relationship with corrupt lobbyist Jack Abramoff.
2) Money alone wasn't Burns' problem as he outspent Democrat Jon Tester $9.2 million to $5.6 million, and Burns still lost.
3) Burns also raised more money than Tester from some of those "left-wing bastions". Burns took in $247,076 from New York City and $149,029 from Los Angeles. Tester took in only $150,649 from New York City, and Los Angeles doesn't even appear on Tester's top five "Top Metro Areas," which sees San Francisco coming in fifth at only $12,153. In other words, Tester only took in about 61% that "conservative" Burns did in "left-wing" NYC, and Burns raised at least twelve times as much as Tester did in "left-wing" Los Angeles.

It's very clear that Republican Jim Risch's entire 2008 Senate campaign is built entirely on fear-mongering against imaginary liberals. I wonder, will Risch swear not to take any campaign contributions from the "left-wing bastions" of "New York City, Hollywood, Seattle, Chicago, and San Francisco"? It will be interesting to see how hypocritical Risch is in this area. Heck, through the end of 2007, over 40% of his campaign money came from PACs.

Tuesday Tidbits

2008-02-12T15:59:00.000-05:00

New Hampshire: A new Granite State Poll (in PDF format) offers reassuring numbers. The poll clocked Republican John Sununu's approve-disapprove at a languishing 46-35, while popular Democratic former Governor Jeanne Shaheen's approve-disapprove came in at a steady 57-23. The poll found Shaheen beating Sununu 54-37, which is almost identical to the 54-38 findings in both previous Granite State Polls on this race, in July '07 and September '07. Lookin' good. Also, Democrat Jay Buckey is withdrawing from the race, leaving Shaheen unopposed in the primary and focused entirely on Sununu.

Kentucky: Ugh. Less than 24 hours after the Guru described Lieutenent Colonel Andrew Horne as "the strongest Democratic challenger to take on Mitch McConnell," Lt. Col. Horne withdraws from the 2008 Senate race, leaving businessman Greg Fischer and former state Secretary of Commerce and two-time gubernatorial candidate Bruce Lunsford at the top of the Democratic pack. This is disappointing news.

Arkansas: Even with John McCain looking like the presumptive Republican nominee for President, Mike Huckabee reiterates in no uncertain terms that he has no desire to run for Senate in 2008:

"There is a greater chance that I would dye my hair green and get tattoos all over my body and do a rock tour with Amy Winehouse than there is for the Senate."

Sounds certain. Tough break for the AR-GOP, who look like they won't even bother to field a candidate against Senator Mark Pryor.

Maine: Elections are about choices. Well, here's a difference to choose between: Tom Allen cares about veterans; Susan Collins does not.

Minnesota: I have to say, I'm very disappointed in the tone of the attacks Mike Ciresi is lobbing at Al Franken. Not only is it beneath Democratic politics, but it makes you look desperate, Mike. Meanwhile, Franken continues to earn glowing local press.

Colorado: Bob Schaffer is the Mitt Romney of Colorado - and, no, that is not a compliment.

Oregon: The local media recognizes that a vote for Gordon Smith is a vote to continue the failed policies of George W. Bush.

Arizona: House retiree-to-be GOP Rep. John Shadegg is leaving open the possibility of a 2010 Senate bid if John McCain wins the Presidency (or, I suppose, retires). Remember that popular Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano already enjoys a double-digit lead on McCain in a hypothetical 2010 Senate match-up.

Ohio: Again, looking ahead to 2010, if I had to put money on it, I'd bet that Republican George Voinovich will retire at the end of his current term. (He'll be 74-years-old on Election Day 2010.) If he does retire, Republican former Congressman and current Bush budget director Rob Portman may be interested in a 2010 Senate bid.

The terrific folks over at Roadblock Republicans.com released a hilariously accurate YouTube video:

Monday Rundown

2008-02-11T13:54:00.000-05:00

Condolences to the family, friends, and constituents of Congressman Tom Lantos.

New Mexico: CQPolitics chronicles the many reasons why they moved New Mexico from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Democratic," including a 49% to 33% Dem to GOP registration advantage, an impressive lead in the polls for Congressman Tom Udall, and an impressive lead in fundraising for Udall.

Alaska: Another week, another Ted Stevens earmark scandal. This time, documents reveal that a $1.6 million earmark Stevens secured in 2005 was tailored to lead to the purchase of property owned by, guess what, a former Ted Stevens aide-turned-lobbyist, Trevor McCabe. And another former Stevens aide-also-turned-lobbyist, Brad Gilman, acted as the "go-between" for the deal. Seriously, at what point will it simply be a crime to work for Ted Stevens? And how many earmark scandals will it take before Stevens loses his seat on the Appropriations Committee?

Tennessee: Former Tennessee state Democratic Party Chair Bob Tuke is reconsidering a 2008 Senate bid against Lamar Alexander after having taken himself out of the running. Something to keep an eye on. (HT: GoldnI)

Maine: A bad omen for Susan Collins: the turnout at the Maine Democratic caucuses shattered the previous record, 46,000 yesterday compared with just 17,000 in 2004. Maine Democrats are energized! By comparison, reports had Republican caucus turnout at a mere 5,000.

New Jersey: Rumors (just rumors for now) have former NJ-GOP Chair and former state sen. Joseph Kyrillos considering an entry into the 2008 GOP Senate primary, further complicating the picture for current candidates businesswoman Anne Evans Estabrook, state sen. Joseph Pennacchio, and professor Murray Sabrin. The more, the merrier! (HT: Blue Jersey)

Both Booman and DKos diarist poblano offer thoughtful analyses of Senator Barack Obama's success in states with 2008 Senate races. poblano's focuses more heavily on the most competitive races, while Booman's looks at tougher southern states. Speaking of Senator Obama, he won his second Grammy last night.

Today is the second anniversary of the day on which Dick Cheney shot a 78-year-old man in the face. Does Hallmark make an appropriate card?

This is hilarious:

The 2008 Democratic Senate Primary in Kentucky

2008-02-10T19:53:00.000-05:00

Republican Mitch McConnell faces an incredibly tough re-election bid. He suffers from notoriously lagging approval ratings, myriad scandals, and a record of partisan-fueled obstructionism. A majority of Kentuckians disagree with Mitch McConnell on Iraq.

And, in an environment in which some in government, including George W. Bush and presumptive 2008 GOP presidential nominee John McCain, decry the use and abuse of budget earmarks, McConnell's one selling point to Kentucky is the porkbarrel spending he secures via earmarks - which draws the ire of conservative groups whose support McConnell can no longer count on.

Democrats also enjoy the momentum generated by the Beshear-Mongiardo ticket's 2007 gubernatorial win over the corrupt administration of Ernie Fletcher, for whom Mitch McConnell went to bat on several occasions.

In a nutshell, Mitch McConnell is quite vulnerable.

So who do the Democrats have to take him out? Eight Democrats filed for the Democratic primary before the January 29th filing deadline. I don't mean to be dismissive, but four of the eight names you will probably hear little about: Kenneth Stepp, James Rice, David Wylie, and David Williams (not the same-named Republican president of the Kentucky state senate). I'll certainly do my best to keep readers attuned to significant news from any of these candidates, but I'm not anticipating much.

A fifth name, Dr. Michael Cassaro, is likely to be an also-ran, as well; although, he is reportedly putting $2 million from his personal wealth into his campaign. While money alone, as you will read later in this analysis, isn't the determining factor, perhaps that will do something to raise his name ID.

The Democratic primary will likely be dominated by three candidates: former state Secretary of Commerce and two-time gubernatorial candidate Bruce Lunsford, businessman Greg Fischer, and Lieutenant Colonel Andrew Horne. Lunsford is best known for his two Democratic primary defeats for Governor; Fischer is best known for his company's invention of the ice & beverage dispenser used by many fast food and other restaurants; Horne is best known for his 2006 Congressional campaign in Kentucky's 3rd district.

Horne announced in mid-December and Fischer announced in mid-January. Lunsford announced on the last day of filing for the race. Both Horne and Fischer released online videos introducing themselves upon their campaign entrance announcements:

Both from their videos and their websites (Horne, Fischer), I get the distinct impression that Lt. Col. Horne has a much clearer vision for why he is running for Senate, compared to Fischer.

Horne’s website has an issues section that touches on the economy, education, health care, Iraq, etc. Fischer’s site has no issues section.

In his introductory video, Horne discusses his personal, civilian-professional, and military background. He discusses personal motivations, from his wife’s health care battles to a desire to keep jobs from being shipped overseas to Mitch McConnell’s failed leadership. Horne even seems ready right now to take on McConnell in a debate with such zingers as “Senator Mitch McConnell is more than part of the problem; he is the problem,” “Simply put, while Mitch McConnell carries George Bush’s water on Iraq, I carried a rifle in Iraq,” and “This campaign is about you, not the lobbyists and political insiders; Mitch McConnell has forgotten that.”

In Fischer’s video, he highlights his business background and “outsider” status, but I simply don’t get a sense of what he is passionate about.

While Fischer has only been in the race a month, Election Day is less than nine months away, and primary day is even sooner – Fischer needs to do a better job of explaining why he’s running. I’m left with the distinct impression that, since Fischer has the capability of self-funding a significant portion of his campaign, he expected that his checkbook would lead him to the Democratic nomination. That will likely not be the case, especially considering Bruce Lunsford (and his ostensibly even larger checkbook) entered the race just before the filing deadline.

In his two failed gubernatorial bids, Lunsford spent about $14 million, and failed to win the Democratic primary either time. Nevertheless, it appears that Lunsford has the inside track on insider support, reportedly receiving the tacit encouragement of Governor Steve Beshear as well as national Democratic leaders in Washington DC, ostensibly because Lunsford has the most money to put into the race. There are two major flaws in that logic though. First, if Lunsford’s money couldn’t win him a statewide primary in two tries, there’s no overwhelming reason to believe his money will put him over the top in both a primary and a general against an exceedingly well-funded McConnell this time around. Second, depending on how much McConnell’s eventual Democratic opponent loans his campaign, by virtue of the “Millionaire’s Amendment,” McConnell will be able to increase the limits on how much he can take in from his contributors, further increasing his campaign war chest.

Additional concerns exist with Lunsford’s commitment to Democratic Party ideals. Lunsford has a very long history of political campaign contributions to Republican candidates and committees, including $1,000 to Mitch McConnell in 1993 and another $250 to McConnell in 1999. On top of that, after his failed 2003 gubernatorial primary bid, Lunsford endorsed the Republican nominee over the Democratic nominee – that Republican was corrupt Ernie Fletcher. I don't readily see how Lunsford answers the question from Mitch McConnell, "How is it that you can contribute to my campaign on one day, support my Party and my candidates one day, and then turn on me and my Party the next day?"

At this stage, Fischer and Lunsford both have as their task at hand to explain how their campaigns represent more than just checkbooks – why they're running and how their campaigns promote Democratic ideals. Of course, McConnell will be well-funded, but that alone does not win campaigns. In 2006, we saw a number of Republican incumbents significantly outspend Democratic challengers in losing efforts. Democrats Claire McCaskill and Jon Tester saw Republicans Jim Talent and Conrad Burns spend twice as much as they did, respectively. George Allen’s spending tripled Jim Webb’s. And Rick Santorum outspent Bob Casey by over $10 million. Those four Republicans lost despite enormous financial advantages.

This is not an endorsement at this stage, by any means. But, right now, Lieutenant Colonel Andrew Horne appears to be the strongest Democratic challenger to take on Mitch McConnell and question McConnell’s shameful record before the voters of Kentucky. I encourage you to view his campaign introductory video again and visit his website.

January Senate Approval Numbers from Survey USA

2008-02-10T15:58:00.000-05:00

SUSA is up with their January numbers. For whatever reason, there are no new numbers up for Massachusetts (John Kerry) and Minnesota (Norm Coleman). For December's numbers for them, visit last month's post.

Republicans:

Mitch McConnell	1/22/08	12/27/07	11/20/07	10/18/07	9/25/07	8/21/07	11/22/06
Approve	49	51	44	49	51	50	54
Disapprove	44	42	47	45	40	43	39

McConnell's approval is back under 50% and his disapproval upticks. Ugly numbers like that mean vulnerability, especially considering some of McConnell's worst numbers come among independent voters (a stunningly bad 34-58).

Pat Roberts	1/22/08	12/27/07	11/20/07	10/18/07	9/25/07	8/21/07	11/22/06
Approve	51	56	51	55	57	54	51
Disapprove	38	32	38	36	32	33	36

Roberts is really teasing us this month as his approval drops to 51% for the second time in three months. The early fundraising and hustle of Democratic candidate Greg Orman, coupled with Roberts' relatively sagging approval and many other negative marks, make Kansas look like the sleeper pick for a competitive Senate race.

Jeff Sessions	1/22/08	12/27/07	11/20/07	10/18/07	9/25/07	8/21/07	11/22/06
Approve	61	56	60	54	56	59	58
Disapprove	29	34	30	37	34	33	32

Sessions enters the really safe zone.

Gordon Smith	1/22/08	12/27/07	11/20/07	10/18/07	9/25/07	8/21/07	11/22/06
Approve	48	50	52	49	48	46	54
Disapprove	41	38	38	42	42	44	37

Smith, like McConnell, sees his approval back under 50%, and Smith's disapproval is even back over 40%. Good times.

Democrats:

Tom Harkin	1/22/08	12/27/07	11/20/07	10/18/07	9/25/07	8/21/07	11/22/06
Approve	58	54	58	53	53	57	53
Disapprove	33	38	37	42	40	35	40

I'll once again stick with my November comment: "Harkin is looking just comfortable enough for me to say something snarky like, 'I hope Tom Latham does challenge Harkin, just to open up Latham's House seat!'"

Saturday Items

2008-02-09T13:52:00.000-05:00

Latest Senate Line by WaPo's Cillizza: still 9 Republican-held seats and only 1 Democratic seat, Senator Mary Landrieu's Louisiana seat, which drops down the competitiveness list from 4 to 6. As recent-Republican state Treasurer John Neely Kennedy continues to disappoint with his bumbling mistakes, we'll see how low down the list Louisiana drops in coming months.

Kentucky: In an editorial simply titled "Obstructionist," the Louisville Courier-Journal again upbraids Republican Mitch McConnell, this time for obstructing progress on the Senate stimulus bill.

Maine: Collins Watch has a thorough analysis of the latest dishonest, desperate, and entirely substance-free attack by Susan Collins on Congressman Tom Allen's 2008 Senate campaign. Susan Collins has a long record of manufacturing bogus controversies - this is just the latest chapter in Collins' thoroughly dishonest history.

Montana: A third Republican has joined the 2008 GOP Senate primary race to see who gets whooped by Senator Max Baucus. The race is now between disgraced state rep. Mike Lange, engineering consultant Kirk Bushman, and newcomer Anton Pearson.

North Carolina: With more than half of 2008 Democratic Senate primary voters still undecided, State Senator Kay Hagan continues to lead in the polls.

Friday Quick Hits

2008-02-08T12:28:00.000-05:00

In December, I highlighted how Democratic Senators' own giving to the DSCC far outweighed Republican Senators' giving to the NRSC. Well, that didn't change in December:

Notable contributions to the DSCC from campaign committees or “leadership PACs” of Democratic senators

• Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico: $150,000
• Joseph I. Lieberman* of Connecticut: $100,000
• Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York: $100,000
• Daniel K. Inouye of Hawaii: $75,000
• Benjamin L. Cardin of Maryland: $50,000
• Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota: $50,000
• Byron L. Dorgan of North Dakota: $25,000
• Debbie Stabenow of Michigan: $25,000
• Daniel K. Akaka of Hawaii: $25,000
• Ben Nelson of Nebraska: $25,000

Notable contributions to the NRSC from campaign committees of Republican senators

• Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky: $50,000
• Senate Minority Whip Lamar Alexander of Tennessee: $25,000
• John W. Warner of Virginia: $30,000

How does this not totally deflate Republican donors? Republican Senators won't match Democratic Senators in giving to their own cause, so why should Republican donors bail them out?

Throughout 2007, NRSC fundraising efforts have been dwarfed by the DSCC. So the NRSC, in a conference call with conservative bloggers, announced a new fundraising gimmick:

“On that line, we are in the next few days going to launch a new online program on the NRSC site called two seats, it is for users to donate money, we want it to become an important portal for our supports, it’s a one stop shop, they can learn more about candidates, as well as they can support them through donations, users can send the candidates slate to their family and friends…”

A one-stop shop to learn about candidates and contribute online? You mean, like a website? Well, let's keep an open mind. Maybe it will be successful. Look at the Presidential race. In the days since Super Tuesday, Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have raised over $7 million and over $6 million, respectively. Republicans answered by attempting an online, one-day money-bomb. With Democrats raised millions, how much would this money-bomb need to be successful? One million? A few hundred thousand? How about $2,646 from 32 donors. That's less than half of the Expand the Map! ActBlue page. It probably shouldn't surprise you that I don't put much stock in Republicans' online fundraising efforts.

Tennessee: Attorney Kevin Doherty has decided against a 2008 Senate bid to challenge Republican Lamar Alexander. Rumored candidate attorney Lynn Todd Edgerton has also declined. This leaves activist Chris Lugo's longshot bid as the only Democratic campaign in the race.

Thursday Round-Up

2008-02-07T20:38:00.000-05:00

Mississippi: As expected, the Mississippi state Supreme Court, packed with supporters of Republican Gov. Haley Barbour, overturned a lower court's decision and gave Barbour what he wanted, a November date for the special election to succeed Trent Lott. (Props to MS blogger Will Bardwell for being way on top of the story.) While it would have been politically beneficial for Democrats if the election was within 90 days, this isn't a large setback. Why? Amongst other reasons, Republican Roger Wicker has a very ethically-questionable record, highlighted in the new website The Real Wicker.com.

New Mexico: The latest poll on the 2008 Senate race sees Democrat Tom Udall beating Republican Steve Pearce 53-31 and beating Republican Heather Wilson 58-30. Lookin' good!

Minnesota: Al Franken's camp has released data that they themselves recognize as not very scientific, but serve as an indicator that he had a very big day at the caucuses. Meanwhile, both MN Publius and MN Blue remind us that Norm Coleman's support for John McCain wasn't enough to help him beat Mitt Romney in Minnesota, a sign of Coleman's political impotency.

Maine: Turn Maine Blue highlights yet another effect of Susan Collins' inability to provide oversight on Iraq while Chair of the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs.

Texas: Is there any question that John Cornyn is an obedient and unquestioning rubber stamp for George W. Bush?

Massachusetts: How strong of a candidate does the NRSC think Republican Jim Ogonowski can be?

if Ogonowski can get resources, we really think that he can be a very serious candidate

Really? Well, I think the NRSC has some resources they can send Ogonowski, if they think that that is the only thing standing in the way of an Ogonowski victory. Or maybe that's just empty talk. C'mon, NRSC. Pony up!

Oklahoma: GOP Rep. Mary Fallin, deep down, seems to agree with the sentiment that Jim Inhofe is an anachronism in the Senate.

One Republican blogger is skeptical of how committed to Republican ideals NRSC Chair John Ensign is:

Me: Senator Ensign, you talked before about Republican principles and how fundraising affecting donations due to Republicans not being fiscally Conservative and fallout from the Senate Amnesty bill. Another major part of Republican principles is traditional values and here in New Jersey we have a Senate candidate, Anne Estabrook, who is both Pro-choice and pro-Gay Marriage and yet you donated $1,000 to her. How do you justify that after what you just talked about 5 minutes ago and the party not acting on their Republican principles. There are also 2 other candidates in the race, Murray Sabrin and Joe Pennacchio, and I am hearing that neither one of them been welcomed by the NRSC with open arms like Anne Estabrook has.

Senator Ensign: It’s important to have a GOP majority in Congress, because that means we get Conservative judges approved. Estabrook is a strong candidate, and moderate Republicans have voted to confirm Conservative judges.

{Update: While I said $1,000, it was actually $10,000 that Senator Ensign donated to Anne Estabrook’s campaign}

Please forgive me if I am a little skeptical, but I have trouble believing that she will be on the right side of voting for Conservative judges. She has also has donated to Democrat candidates like Senator Bob Menendez and others. But my bigger concern is the NRSC recognizing that not standing up for Republican principles has hurt them and then they go out and stand behind a liberal Republican. Makes no sense to me.

Way to rally the troops, Ensign!

Wednesday Rundown

2008-02-06T13:05:00.000-05:00

Maine: Susan Collins has a very long history of manufacturing bogus controversies to falsely create a negative view of her political opponents. Back in 1996 during her first Senate bid, Collins worked with a reporter to portray her opponent's very run-of-the-mill opposition research effort as a sleazy dumpster dive for information. Then, last summer, she desperately tried to portray the Maine Democratic Party employing a video tracker as some sort of unorthodox and inappropriate bullying of her (even though Collins' own Party recommends the tactic!). Then, last autumn, Collins tried to make hay out of Congressman Tom Allen having missed a few votes, even though he has a remarkable 98% voting record. (It should be noted that some of the votes Allen missed that Collins and the ME-GOP tried to exploit for political gain were missed because Allen attended a family funeral. We still haven't heard an apology from Collins or the ME-GOP.)

And now, Collins is trying her latest stunt. She is trying to make hay out of the fact that MoveOn.org members have contributed money to Tom Allen and that Allen voted against the resolution condemning MoveOn.org for the ad they took out questioning the validity of General Petraeus' status report on Iraq.

Susan Collins has a record replete with lies, hypocrisies, and kowtowing to the far right wing of her Party. She really is one of the most disingenuous politicians in America. That is not hyperbole. A YouTuber has put together a video inspired by archconservative Rick Santorum calling Collins a "team player." (HT: TMB)

Minnesota: Anecdotal evidence is suggesting that Al Franken had a very big day at the DFL caucuses to determine which Democrat will take out Norm Coleman in November.

Oregon: It's his election year, so, of course, Republican Gordon Smith is vocally opposing cuts to Medicaid. Problem is, when it's not his election year, Smith has voted to cut $10 billion (with a B) from Medicaid. Smith is as hypocritical as they come.

Nebraska: Scott Kleeb says a decision will come on a possible 2008 Senate bid "within the next two weeks."

Illinois: Republican Steve Sauerberg won his Party's 2008 Senate nomination to face Senator Richard Durbin in November. One indicator of the race is cash-on-hand at the end of 2007: Durbin $7.3 million, Sauerberg $66,632. Yeah.

Mississippi: Roger Wicker must not enjoy being a Senate appointee. He's already missing very important votes. Ironically, one vote dealt with attendance requirements for Senators! It's one thing to miss a handful of votes over the course of a year. It's another thing to miss votes after being sworn in just two weeks ago!

Kentucky: Dr. Michael Cassaro is reportedly going to put $2 million of his own money into his 2008 Senate campaign to compete with his higher profile Democratic primary opponents.

Super Duper Tuesday Quick Hits

2008-02-05T13:48:00.000-05:00

(Hey, there is a little news besides the Presidential race!)

Maine: A week ago today, I sent my open e-mail to Susan Collins' press secretary regarding hearings Collins called for as Chair of the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. She has yet to reply. I wonder if Collins is this slow in responding to constituent concerns.

Minnesota: In addition to the Presidential primaries and caucuses, Minnesota will be picking delegates at their caucuses to go to the state DFL convention. These delegates will determine the Democratic nominee to oust Republican Bush-bot Norm Coleman. If I were a gambler, I'd bet on a big day for Al Franken.

Wyoming: Some news from the Wyoming Democratic Party:

Bill Luckett, communications director for the Wyoming Democratic Party, said a candidate will announce a challenge to Barrasso within weeks. But Luckett said the Democrats will delay deciding to field anyone against Enzi until they know for sure whether the senator is running again.

Indeed a positive sign, as there are Wyoming Democrats who could be formidable in a 2008 Senate race. Enzi, meanwhile, remains publicly undecided about a re-election bid.

WaPo's Cillizza highlights Republicans' continued fundraising woes.

Monday Recap

2008-02-04T23:43:00.000-05:00

Not only is the DSCC beating the pants off of the NRSC in fundraising, but, in many top tier races, Democratic Senate candidates are beating the pants off of their Republican opponents in fundraising, too. (So, if you're able, contribute a few bucks to some of the tighter races!)

Maine: Maybe Susan Collins would be better off running for a leadership role in a PAC outside of Maine. I say this because Collins has taken in twice as much money from PACs as she's taken in from Mainers; and, she's raised more than twice as much money from outside Maine than she has from inside Maine.

Nebraska: Businessman Tony Raimondo has, as expected, entered the 2008 Senate race as a Democrat; and he has a campaign website up. Meanwhile, a decision from Scott Kleeb should come any day now.

Kentucky: Mitch McConnell is on the hot seat for using videotaped statements of Louisville physicians in his campaign ads without their permission. Mitch McConnell acting unethically?!? Say it ain't so!

Minnesota: Environmental activist Jim Cohen, who withdrew last week from the 2008 Senate race, has endorsed Al Franken leading up to the Minnesota caucuses.

Oregon: With the subprime mortgage fiasco currently a very prominent issue, it's more than a bit surprising to learn that one Democratic candidate for Senate has never owned a home or taken out a mortgage.

Idaho: Democrat Larry LaRocco will get a first-hand look at the practical intricacies of Medicare Part D working his 17th job at the Medicine Shoppe pharmacy in Twin Falls.

On issue after issue, voters trust Democrats more than Republicans.

Sunday Items

2008-02-03T13:37:00.000-05:00

Maine: Not only did John McCain overwhelmingly lose the Maine caucuses to Mitt Romney, but he barely edged out Ron Paul. Given that Susan Collins is McCain's state co-Chair, it certainly doesn't bode well for her ability to get out the vote.

Kentucky: DMKY's Terri Whitehouse highlights the Louisville Courier-Journal pointing out that, while Mitch McConnell brags about the funding he brings home to Kentucky, the oil companies Mitch secures tax credits for are enjoying massive record profits while Kentucky families are holding the bag for high gas prices. Thanks a lot Mitch!

Oregon: Republican Gordon Smith takes more heat for carrying the Bush administration's water on FISA. In other news, Democratic Speaker Jeff Merkley held an insightful liveblog session on Daily Kos yesterday, which spent several hours in the Recommended Diaries section. The answer to a question I got to squeeze in to Merkley demonstrates his effectiveness with grassroots organizing and with turning campaign ideals into legislative realities:

GURU: Both in defying the odds to win enough seats to put Democrats back in the majority in the Oregon House and in passing legislation that made the 2007 Oregon legislative session the most progressive in three decades, what role did grassroots outreach play? How effectively in both the elections and in the fight to pass legislation did community organizations and legislators/candidates work together?

MERKLEY: Our success in taking seven seats in two cycles to end sixteen years of GOP control was completely the product of grassroots activity.

We built the best grassroots canvassing/door knocking/telephoning operation that Oregon has ever seen. In five key seats we had enormous success in coordinating volunteers from many partner organizations. From unions, from education advocacy groups and from other progressive organizations.

During the session we succeeded in passing our entire Roadmap for Oregon and Opportunity because the plan was rooted in the issues that we heard on the doorsteps. We kept in touch with the public during the legislative process.

Our philosphy is captured by the phrase, "Run. Govern. Run." That is, campaign on the things you believe in and then legislate to make the things you believe in happen.

Merkley doesn't make idle promises on the campaign trail - he has a record of turning campaign ideals into legislative realities.

Oklahoma: Jim "In Denial" Inhofe is either a joke or a lunatic. Either way, I don't want him as a member of the U.S. Senate. Support Andrew Rice!

Idaho: This weekend, Senator and Presidential candidate Barack Obama spoke in Boise. Event planners expected 8,000 attendees. 14,000 showed up. It demonstrates not only the potential of Senator Obama but also Idaho Democrats and Larry LaRocco's Senate campaign.

New Hampshire: An outfit with ties to the 2002 New Hampshire Republican phone jamming scandal continues to support John Sununu in his 2008 Senate race. Does Sununu really want to remind Granite State voters of his corrupt buddies?

Nebraska: Republican businessman Pat Flynn continues to be a thorn in the side of Republican quitter Mike Johanns.

Georgia: Vietnam vet and former Senate staffer Josh Lanier is hustling for good local press in his underdog bid against Vietnam dodger Spineless Saxby Chambliss.

Conservative pundit Pat Buchanan implies that suicide is a preferable option to a John McCain presidency.

Who I'm supporting for President has gone through a very long and winding path - a very long one - but, on Super Tuesday, I'll be voting for Senator Barack Obama. Maybe I'm just jealous that I never got to vote for John F. Kennedy. Maybe I'm brushing away the scars of cynicism just long enough to embrace, just for a moment while in the voting booth, the transformative politics of hope. Maybe I just think he matches up better against the Republican candidates or provides longer coattails for downballot Democrats for Congress. But, whatever the reason, I'm voting Obama.

Gigantic Saturday Round-Up

2008-02-02T13:14:00.000-05:00

The Sunlight Foundation offers highlights from the Senate Ethics Committee's recent annual report. The Sunlight Foundation concludes that, since 16 alleged violations resulted in a preliminary hearing, and 11 alleged violations were dismissed for lack of substantial merit, there must be 5 investigations still underway. Who might those five investigations be looking into? There are several options.

Wyoming: A spokeswoman for Republican Mike Enzi confirms that he is currently undecided about a 2008 Senate re-election bid! No timeline for a decision is offered, but Wyoming's filing deadline isn't until May 30. It might encourage him toward retirement if a prominent Democrat stepped into the race, forcing Enzi to hustle more on campaigning and fundraising.

Idaho: Building on the strength of Democrat Larry LaRocco having closed 2007 with more cash-on-hand than any Republican Senate candidate from Idaho, including Lt. Gov. Jim Risch, an e-mail I just received announced a fundraiser for later this month in support of Larry LaRocco's campaign, to be hosted by Senate Majority Whip Richard Durbin and Senator Barbara Boxer. Coupled with LaRocco's hustle via his "Working for the Senate" campaign, we're going to see a truly competitive U.S. Senate race in Idaho.

Meanwhile, Larry Craig is still pouring money into his legal defense. I'm sure he'd appreciate it if his best buddy Jim Risch helped him out financially, the way several Republicans are doing for GOP Rep. John Doolittle. Maybe the Idaho media should ask if Risch has any plans to help Craig out.

New Mexico: Joe Monahan reports in his February 1 post:

Heather is going to need every dime she raises and then some if an insider poll has the race right. The survey, apparently commissioned by the state GOP and taken among 500 likely NM GOP voters on January 13th, shows Wilson trailing Pearce 38% to 33% with the rest undecided. The poll was taken just before Pearce went up with his big TV buy which is still airing in the key ABQ market.

The Republican primary will be a slugfest that will leave the eventual nominee penniless when face to face with Democratic Congressman Tom Udall.

Maine: From a press release from Tom Allen's Senate campaign (emphasis added by me):

Exxon Mobil today reported making "corporate history" with its reports of the highest quarterly and annual profits ever for a U.S. company, according to CNN. The oil giant earned an astonishing $1,300 per second in 2007. Other companies have also reported impressive profits, according to media reports.

"It is past time we stopped subsidizing Big Oil and we started putting hard-working Mainers first," Allen said. "Big Oil doesn't deserve tax breaks - Mainers do. Taxpayers are paying for the windfall of the Cheney Energy Bill, which I opposed and Susan Collins supported. That bill gave $14 billion in tax breaks and incentives to the oil and gas industry. Meanwhile, Maine consumers, our environment and our national security all suffer because of our addiction to foreign oil and our giveaways to the industry."

Susan Collins is in the pocket of Big Oil and the Bush administration. Tom Allen is an independent voice for Maine families. Period.

Mississippi: Could the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) be breaking the law by inappropriately coordinating with the Americans Taxpayer Alliance (ATA) in support of Republican Roger Wicker? It's not entirely clear, but what is certain is the ATA's history of deceptive tactics:

In October 2002, the ATA funded automated telemarketing messages that flashed "Win $100,000 Cash" on the caller ID displays of Missouri residents' telephones. Those who answered their phones then heard a recording asking them to thank Jim Talent for working to cut taxes. Talent, a former Republican congressman, was challenging incumbent Democrat Jean Carnahan to represent Missouri in the U.S. Senate. (ATA said the win-cash message was inadvertent.)

Sounds like the type of company the NRSC would keep.

Kentucky: The Louisville Courier-Journal highlights yet another failure of Mitch McConnell's:

Even though Kentucky has more mines than any other state, Sens. Mitch McConnell and Jim Bunning have not taken a lead role in fighting for miner safety, as Mr. Byrd has throughout his entire career.

I'm going to go out on a limb that if McConnell has to choose between miner safety or protecting the financial interests of mine owners, he isn't going to side with the miners.

Alaska: Pulling an Al Gore at the Oscars, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich teases us about his hopefully forthcoming Senate campaign announcement.

Louisiana: In a recent campaign e-mail, Senator Mary Landrieu informs:

Last fall, with the help of supporters like you, I joined with my fellow members of Louisiana's Congressional Delegation in leading the fight to override the President's veto of the Water Resources and Development Act. This bill authorizes over $7 billion in funding to restore wetlands and rebuild levees, critical flood control measures that will help protect us from future hurricanes.

We also closed a major Hurricane Katrina and Rita recovery funding gap when I was able to secure $3 billion for our state's housing rebuilding program, money that will go to Louisiana citizens in the form of grants to rebuild their communities. Securing this needed funding was critical not only to Louisiana homeowners who suffered housing devastation but to the fiscal health of our entire state and to the future of our economy.

With Louisiana Congressmen Richard Baker resigning and Jim McCrery retiring, with Bobby Jindal having left for the Governor's office, with Congressman Bill Jefferson under investigation, and with junior Senator David Vitter a freshman and a philanderer, Senator Mary Landrieu's seniority is more valuable and more critically necessary to Louisiana than ever.

And, speaking of the prostitute-aficionado Vitter, former Governor Kathleen Blanco is already fielding calls urging her to challenge Vitter for Senate in 2010. Blanco does note that Vitter's scandal "embarrassed the state" of Louisiana. Something to keep an eye on.

Minnesota: KARE-11 Minneapolis previews Tuesday's Minnesota caucuses, at which delegates will be elected for the state Democratic convention, at which a nominee will be chosen to take down Smilin' Norm Coleman.

Pennsylvania: Will MSNBC's Chris Matthews run in 2010 for the Senate seat currently held by Arlen Specter? At age 28, he did run for Congress as a Democrat in Pennsylvania back in 1974. But I'm guessing it's just idle chit-chat. On a side-note, Arlen Specter really is a time-wasting yutz sometimes.

Holy cow. Ron Paul raised more in Q4-2007 than Mitt Romney and John McCain combined!

On the Democratic side, Barack Obama seems to have all the momentum, but will it be enough to overtake Hillary Clinton's lead in the albeit-narrowing polls?

Q4 and End-of-2007 Numbers for the 2008 Senate Candidates

2008-02-01T20:43:00.000-05:00

Here are the Q4 fundraising numbers and cash-on-hand totals at the end of 2007 for the 2008 Senate candidates. Compiling courtesy of Hotline On Call.

State	Candidate	Party	Q4 Take	End of 07 CoH
AL	Jeff Sessions	GOP	660,604	3,952,547
AK	Ted Stevens	GOP	207,606	1,057,241
AR	Mark Pryor	Dem	615,787	3,621,034
CO	Mark Udall	Dem	1,115,782	3,606,143
CO	Bob Schaffer	GOP	673,683	1,506,701
DE	Joe Biden	Dem	3,206,409	3,333,214
GA	Saxby Chambliss	GOP	944,214	4,459,794
ID	Larry LaRocco	Dem	166,306	199,935
ID	Jim Risch	GOP	236,984	170,709
ID	Rex Rammell	GOP	105,338	85,504
IL	Richard Durbin	Dem	1,057,071	7,309,560
IL	Steve Sauerberg	GOP	97,941	66,632
IA	Tom Harkin	Dem	802,619	3,446,622
KS	Greg Orman	Dem	457,269	451,123
KS	Pat Roberts	GOP	727,721	2,731,000
KY	Mitch McConnell	GOP	1,716,034	7,317,138
LA	Mary Landrieu	Dem	1,194,678	4,109,545
LA	John N. Kennedy	GOP	501,178	472,371
ME	Tom Allen	Dem	812,841	2,519,285
ME	Susan Collins	GOP	963,073	3,912,574
MA	John Kerry	Dem	1,087,264	10,112,796
MI	Carl Levin	Dem	873,222	3,890,661
MN	Al Franken	Dem	1,972,514	3,096,713
MN	Mike Ciresi	Dem	813,063	984,305
MN	Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer	Dem	284,060	131,513
MN	Norm Coleman	GOP	1,741,961	6,040,264
MS-A	Thad Cochran	GOP	69,939	1,107,194
MS-B	Roger Wicker	GOP	76,712	550,935
MT	Max Baucus	Dem	1,507,534	6,285,706
NE	Mike Johanns	GOP	1,378,124	1,055,627
NH	Jeanne Shaheen	Dem	1,180,250	1,138,053
NH	John Sununu	GOP	921,626	3,425,299
NJ	Frank Lautenberg	Dem	931,700	4,321,777
NJ	Anne Evans Estabrook	GOP	1,790,336	1,525,206
NM	Tom Udall	Dem	1,029,072	1,712,513
NM	Heather Wilson	GOP	524,241	1,085,002
NM	Steve Pearce	GOP	429,250	819,717
NC	Kay Hagan	Dem	562,696	515,697
NC	Jim Neal	Dem	214,706	139,105
NC	Elizabeth Dole	GOP	1,138,155	2,664,346
OK	Andrew Rice	Dem	229,204	350,885
OK	Jim Inhofe	GOP	485,917	1,859,892
OR	Jeff Merkley	Dem	623,912	515,540
OR	Steve Novick	Dem	221,519	292,543
OR	Gordon Smith	GOP	952,845	4,434,882
RI	Jack Reed	Dem	519,270	3,153,703
SC	Lindsey Graham	GOP	800,517	4,744,797
SD	Tim Johnson	Dem	726,923	2,372,104
SD	Joel Dykstra	GOP	56,080	21,138
TN	Lamar Alexander	GOP	1,047,914	2,073,179
TX	Rick Noriega	Dem	406,859	688,035
TX	John Cornyn	GOP	1,746,702	7,502,259
VA	Mark Warner	Dem	2,737,016	2,888,128
VA	Jim Gilmore	GOP	348,453	183,052
WV	Jay Rockefeller	Dem	800,085	3,726,213
WY-A	Mike Enzi	GOP	108,446	521,926
WY-B	John Barrasso	GOP	455,716	876,078

Ten quick observations (for some of which, you need to see the full rundown on Hotline On Call):
1) Colorado's looking fantastic, money-wise.
2) Wow, even in Idaho, the Democrat has more cash-on-hand at the end of 2007 than any of the Republicans.
3) In Kansas, Democrat Greg Orman outraised Republican incumbent Pat Roberts in contributions from individuals in Q4 - and Orman only began fundraising in December!
4) It's great to see Al Franken and Jeanne Shaheen outraising Norm Coleman and John Sununu in Q4, respectively.
5) Republican Thad Cochran only raised $69,939 in Q4, $48,000 of which came from PACs. He only raised $8,800 from individuals in all of Q4. If a serious Democratic challenger, like popular former state Attorney General Mike Moore, jumped in early against Cochran, he really might have retired, since he obviously isn't hustling (not that he has to now - but $8,800?!?).
6) FYI: The vast majority of fundraising for New Jersey Republican Anne Evans Estabrook comes from self-funding.
7) Tom Udall raised more than Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson put together in Q4. Awesome.
8) Joel Dykstra, the Republican Party's top recruit to take on Senator Tim Johnson, has on hand less than one percent of Senator Johnson's bankroll.
9) Jim Gilmore... hahahahahahahahaha.
10) Very similar to Thad Cochran (see observation #5), Mike Enzi only bothered to raise $108,446 in Q4, $93,000 of which came from PACs. He only raised $13,600 from individuals in all of Q4. It certainly lends credibility to the theory that Enzi may be considering retirement, or that he might seriously consider retirement if he's forced to hustle at all by a strong Democratic challenger.

Big Friday Rundown

2008-02-01T12:56:00.000-05:00

Louisiana: We haven't heard much of anything from recent-Republican state Treasurer John N. Kennedy since he announced his 2008 Senate challenge to Senator Mary Landrieu (other than Treasurer Kennedy's circa 1997-style Geocities website). Well, his out-of-date website isn't his only technical flub. Apparently, he must have ripped off Senator Landrieu's mass e-mail template. This appears to be the case because, at the bottom of a recent fundraising e-mail (see graphic below), when you click on the text that reads "Visit JohnKennedy.com," it takes you to Senator Mary Landrieu's website! He changed the text but not the link! So all of Treasurer Kennedy's supporters who click on the link get to read about Senator Landrieu's many accomplishments on her website! Treasurer Kennedy is hilariously inept. If this is how he manages his campaign's infrastructure, do you really want him having a hand in managing the nation's infrastructure? (No wonder Treasurer Kennedy was so comfortable giving Halliburton no-bid contracts in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.)

New Mexico: Democratic Congressman Tom Udall raised more for his 2008 Senate bid in Q4-2007 than Republican Congresscritters Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson combined! Udall brought in just over $1 million, while Pearce took in about $425,000 and Wilson took in about $515,000. Udall also leads significantly in cash-on-hand: Udall $1.7 million, Pearce $820,000, Wilson $1.1 million. (Udall's lead is all the more pronounced when you consider that Pearce and Wilson have to spend their money against each other in the GOP primary before facing Udall.)

Minnesota: A new poll by Minnesota Public Radio has some interesting findings. (Full results in PDF.) For the first time, we see Democrat Al Franken leading Republican Norm Coleman, by a 43.2 to 40 margin; also, we see Coleman leading Democrat Mike Ciresi by only 5 points. It's safe to say that Smilin' Norm's big lead has evaporated. The poll also sees Franken with a big lead over Ciresi in the DFL primary, 42-18, with 35% undecided. Also, environmental activist Jim Cohen has dropped his 2008 Senate bid in the Democratic primary.

Idaho: Given that this is Idaho, here's a statistic that should not be overlooked. Democratic Senate candidate Larry LaRocco ended 2007 with more cash-on-hand than all Republican Senate candidates, including Lt. Gov. Jim Risch.

Colorado: Republican Bob Schaffer only managed to raise about three-fifths of what Democrat Mark Udall raised in Q4-2007, as Udall brought in about $1.1 million while Schaffer pulled in under $673,000. Udall has more than double Schaffer's cash-on-hand, $3.6 million to $1.5 million.

Arkansas: Senator Mark Pryor took in $616,000 in Q4-2007, bringing his cash-on-hand to $3.6 million. Couple that with the AR-GOP's inability to find an opponent for Pryor, and you can count his seat as very safe.

Kansas: Democratic businessman Greg Orman reports that he has raised more than $450,000 in December alone for his 2008 Senate challenge to Republican Pat Roberts, a very impressive sum for one month in Kansas. Also, Orman will have a Democratic primary challenger, former Senate candidate Lee Jones, who lost to Sam Brownback in 2004 by a 69-28 margin.

Texas: The San Antonio Express-News has a terrific profile of State Representative and Lieutenant Colonel Rick Noriega up. Worth reading to get psyched up about booting Bush-rubber-stamp John Cornyn.

Georgia: Shameless Saxby Chambliss is chipping in to help out with the legal fees for Republican Congresscritter John Doolittle, who is under a Justice Department investigation because of his ties to connection to corrupt lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Sometimes, it really is the company you keep.

Oregon: Many of you may be aware that, about a week ago, the car that Speaker Jeff Merkley was riding in between campaign stops hit a patch of ice and flipped over. Fortunately, Speaker Merkley and his campaign aide were both fine (thank goodness for seat belts) and, impressively, even managed to continue on to the next campaign stops, finishing the night's schedule. Well, Speaker Merkley lampoons that incident in his new web ad:

Is NRSC Chair Ensign Auditioning for The Onion?

2008-01-31T23:14:00.000-05:00

I'm sincerely curious as to whether NRSC Chair John Ensign is trying out for a writing gig with the online satire publication The Onion. I wonder this because he gave an interview with Roll Call that is absolutely hilarious. (I'm actually surprised that Ensign would put an interview so laughable on his PAC's website.)

The article begins:

While acknowledging that he will fall short of his $119 million fundraising goal this cycle, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Ensign (Nev.) said Wednesday that the committee is on its strongest footing in at least two cycles with cash in the bank to take on a powerful Democratic money machine.

Thanks for the reminder that Ensign's goal for the cycle was $119 million (the amount that the DSCC took in last cycle as the then-minority Party in the Senate). You may remember that the NRSC brought in only $31.8 million for the 2007 calendar year. If 2008 is similar to 2007 for NRSC fundraising, they'll finish with $63.6 million, or with 53% of his stated goal. A 53 in school is an F. The article then reads:

But Ensign said he has a lot more to crow about after the final quarter of 2007 proved that Republican donors are renewing their commitment to the party, and that his restructuring has made the NRSC leaner and a better manager of its books.

A lot to crow about after the final quarter of 2007? When the DSCC outraised the NRSC $13.3 million to $8.4 million? That final quarter of 2007? He's "crowing" that he raised less than two-thirds of his Democratic counterpart? Later in the article:

Ensign noted that in December 2003, the NRSC had just $8.56 million in the bank, while it finished 2005 with only $10.5 million.

That's great... if Ensign's NRSC was up against Elizabeth Dole's NRSC or George Allen's NRSC; but, he's up against Chuck Schumer's DSCC, and he's getting whooped. The next highlight:

While Republicans look to put a positive spin on their position, Democrats are quick to argue that Ensign’s problems go deeper than fundraising, and include candidate recruitment and incumbent retention.

The incumbent retention charge could be considered dubious, as Republican incumbents have chosen to re-up in the tough, Democratic-leaning states of Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Oregon, while two of the retirements — Sens. Pete Domenici (R-N.M.) and John Warner (R-Va.) — could be chalked up to illness and age, respectively.

Ummm, the willingness of Republicans in those Dem-leaning states to re-up could also very easily be chalked up to age, too, as the incumbents in Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Oregon are only 55, 58, 43, and 55, respectively. I mean, in recent years, there have been very few retirements from the U.S. Senate by people under 59, especially when there's not a Presidential bid involved. Ensign's job then gets nutshelled:

“This NRSC has raised less money, recruited fewer challengers and retained fewer incumbents than [North Carolina Sen. Elizabeth Dole] did,” DSCC spokesman Matthew Miller said.

Exactly. Ensign then closes the interview blaming his Republican Senate colleagues:

Ensign acknowledged the challenges the NRSC still faces in 2008, especially in persuading his Senate colleagues to contribute and raise money on behalf of the committee. Senator participation has been a perennial problem for the NRSC, exacerbated by the fact that Democratic Senators have consistently been strong contributors to the DSCC, with several already handing over hundreds of thousands of dollars during this cycle.

“Campaign transfers are by far the most difficult,” Ensign said. “Members always feel that if they raise money for their campaign that their donors won’t like it if they give it away.”

Ensign said that while he’s making as many fundraising calls as DSCC Chairman Charles Schumer (N.Y.), “there’s a huge difference in the commitment of their Members than with ours.”

The Nevada Republican promised “consequences” for Republican Senators who don’t do their part, including refusing future NRSC help to any individual who won’t participate.

“Our guys aren’t hungry enough,” Ensign added. “They don’t realize the consequences. That’s the reality. There’s been a few of them [who are helping], but not enough of them.”

This should deflate any enthusiasm among GOP donors. If Republican Senators aren't willing to contribute to their cause, why should donors pony up to bail them out?

It adds up to big trouble for Senate Republicans. But that doesn't mean Democrats should take anything for granted. Want to make the NRSC's woes all the more painful? Contribute to the DSCC today.

Massive Thursday Rundown

2008-01-31T14:20:00.000-05:00

Q4 fundraising numbers are out, and the DSCC again whoops the NRSC. In December alone, the DSCC outraised the NRSC $6.1 million to $3.1 million. In Q4-2007, the DSCC outraised the NRSC $13.3 million to $8.4 million. In the 2007 calendar year, the DSCC outraised the NRSC $55.4 million to $31.8 million. And, for cash-on-hand-minus-debt at the end of 2007, the DSCC crushes the NRSC $27.9 million to $12.1 million. Huge.

In a study of competitive House seats, the following finding was discovered:

Key finding: "Democrats start off even with Republicans, 45% to 46%, in a challenging battleground that Republicans won by a 10-point margin in the past two elections."

A terrific trend that should impact Senate battlegrounds as well.

New Hampshire: Speaking of Q4-2007, Republican John Sununu finally released his take of $920,000, which is only about 75% of popular former Governor Jeanne Shaheen's take of $1.2 million for the quarter.

Virginia: Some more Q4-2007: popular former Governor Mark Warner took in a hefty $2.7 million.

Michigan: Again speaking of Q4-2007, Senator Carl Levin took in another $840,000, bringing his cash-on-hand to just under $5 million.

Iowa: And yet again speaking of Q4-2007, Senator Tom Harkin took in another $802,000, bring his cash-on-hand to $3.4 million.

Oklahoma: Did somebody say Q4-2007? State Senator Andrew Rice reports an impressive take of ~~$540,000, more than 70% of which came from Oklahomans.~~ $225,000. [Correction: The $540K figure is the total take for 2007.]

Maine: And one last item on Q4-2007. We see another tight fundraising quarter between Democratic Congressman Tom Allen and Republican Susan Collins. Allen brought in $813,000 while Collins brought in $963,000. Meanwhile, Susan Collins and Karl Rove really are thick as thieves:

Collins Gets Chummy With Rove

Last weekend, the prestigious black-tie, closed-to-press Alfalfa Club dinner featured former Secretary of State Colin Powell, D.C. Mayor Adrian Fenty, a host of members of Congress and, of course, President Bush. But we hear it wasn’t the campaign digs of Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I-Conn.) that raised eyebrows, but rather Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and her chumminess with GOP Svengali Karl Rove.

Sources say the two seemed to be enjoying a grand old time together, laughing and being very playful, which has the chattering class, well, chattering.

This is not the first time their friendship has caused some rubbernecking. Turn Maine Blue, a progressive blog, recently launched a YouTube video that shows a CNN clip of the two — now prepare yourselves — walking together. CollinsWatch.com, an independent site that is “keeping an eye on Maine’s junior senator,” says, “It seems likely to me that we haven’t seen the last of that particular clip.”

Meanwhile, we tried to find out whether Collins is Rove’s BFF, but he e-mailed that he was “running for [the] airport” and didn’t elaborate. As for Collins she said: "It is a great opportunity to catch up with a lot of old friends, including Karl Rove, Bill and Janet Cohen and Mary Margaret Valentini.”

It's no surprise that Collins and Rove are tight, given what a good "team player" Collins is, and how in the Bush administration's pocket she has been these last seven years.

Wyoming: Could Republican Mike Enzi be considering retirement? The Hill reports:

Enzi’s low fundraising numbers and the Senate GOP leadership’s repeated snubs of his bid for a coveted seat on the powerful Finance Committee have fueled speculation that the senator may leave Congress. ...

“I’m not making any announcements because Wyoming people don’t like long campaigns,” Enzi said Tuesday. “The whole atmosphere changes once there’s an announcement.”

He added: “I’m not telling anybody; I haven’t even told my family.”

According to his most recent campaign filing, Enzi had $522,000 in cash-on-hand at the end of the fourth quarter of 2007, collecting just under $110,000 in receipts since the previous quarter. That is far less than a typical Republican Senate candidate at this point in the election cycle.

Enzi is, in the Guru's opinion, the safest Republican up for re-election, so he can certainly take his time; and it certainly doesn't take a ton of money to run in Wyoming. That said, it's something to keep an eye on, especially if there are Democrats who might consider a Senate bid for an open seat.

Colorado: George W. Bush will be fundraising for Backwards Bob Schaffer's 2008 Senate campaign today. Why is W taking such an interest in Bob Schaffer's campaign? Because Big Oil Bob knows how to play nice with W's corporate cronies in Big Oil, illustrated by Schaffer's atrocious record on energy and the environment. In response, ProgressNow released a scathing web ad on Big Oil Bob.

Oregon: Oy. More hijinks from a staffer from Steve Novick's 2008 Senate campaign. Fresh off of a Novick staffer's conflict-of-interest brouhaha over her leading an organization that was endorsing in the primary, we have another Novick staffer caught editing the Wikipedia entry of primary opponent Speaker Jeff Merkley. And, again (for now at least), there is silence from the Novick campaign higher-ups. C'mon, guys, this is beneath Democratic politics. Novick should remind his staffers that their actions reflect on him and that this stuff doesn't provide a positive reflection. In other Oregon news, Speaker Jeff Merkley has a message for Republican Gordon Smith: a rollover car accident couldn't slow Merkley down; so what chance does Gordon Smith have?

Minnesota: MN Blue catches Smilin' Norm Coleman pandering to conservatives (in other words, rhetorically selling out Minnesota moderates).

New Mexico: The conservative Club for Growth is getting involved in the NM-GOP 2008 Senate primary in support of Congressman Steve Pearce. This is exactly the type of support that will help him in the primary and hurt him in the general against Congressman Tom Udall. Good times.

Nebraska: Scott Kleeb should decide on whether or not to join the 2008 Senate race shortly after Super Duper Tuesday. Meanwhile, The Hill indicates that Senator Ben Nelson is motivated to get very personally involved in seeing Republican Mike Johanns lose his 2008 Senate bid:

Johanns infuriated Nelson when he resigned his [Secretary of Agriculture] Cabinet post last fall to run for the Senate seat being vacated by Hagel.

“He told me it [Agriculture Secretary] was the job he always wanted and I told Democratic senators that when I got them to vote for his confirmation,” Nelson said Wednesday after speaking at a breakfast on energy policy sponsored by The Hill. “Then he resigns to run for the Senate, and my Democratic colleagues all call me and say, ‘What happened? You said he was serious about being secretary of Agriculture.’”

So Mike Johanns isn't just a quitter; he's also a liar.

North Carolina: I don't remotely think John Edwards will run for his old Senate seat now that he's withdrawn from the Presidential race. But that might not stop potential Draft John Edwards efforts.

The Economic Record of Gordon Smith

2008-01-30T20:52:00.000-05:00

Oregon: Gordon Smith not only has a terrible economic record, but he's piling on the election year flip-flops in 2008. Gordon Smith is promoting a five-point plan to help the economy, but his election year rhetoric is in direct contradiction to his record. The below is courtesy of a press release from the Senate campaign of Speaker Jeff Merkley:

Gordon Smith’s Real Record on the Economy
Keeping with his plan to saying anything to get elected, Gordon Smith gave us his five point plan to fix the economy

What Smith says now: Rebate tax dollars to low and middle income Americans to kick start consumer spending and drive economic activity [Smith press release, 1/23/08]

What Smith's Record Says: Smith Voted Against Min. Wage Increases 17 Times

Minimum Wage: 1. Senate Vote 278, 9/2/98; 2. Senate Vote 94, 4/28/99; 3. Senate Vote 239, 7/30/99; 4. Senate Vote 356, 11/9/99; 5. Senate Vote 75, 7/7/00; 6. Senate Vote 76, 7/7/00; 7. Senate Vote 26, 3/7/05; 8. Senate Vote 257, 10/19/05; 9. Senate Vote 179, 6/21/06; 10. Senate Vote 22, 1/25/07; 11. Senate Vote 23, 1/25/07; 12. Senate Vote 26, 1/25/07; 13. Senate Vote 28, 1/25/07; 14. Senate Vote 30, 1/25/07; 15. Senate Vote 32, 1/25/07; 16. Senate Vote 37, 1/31/07; 17. Senate Vote 38, 1/31/07

* * *

What Smith says now: Provide critical assistance to the states to fund programs such as food stamps, low-income heating assistance (LIHEAP) and unemployment insurance [Smith press release, 1/23/08]

What Smith's Record Says: Only in an Election Year does Smith want to Increase LIHEAP, Unemployment Benefits

Smith has voted three times against increasing funding for LIHEAP: In 2005, Smith voted against a temporary tax on Big Oil Company profits to add funds to LIHEAP. [Senate vote 339, 11/17/05] In 2006, Smith voted twice against boosting LIHEAP: once to increase LIHEAP funds by $500 million and the second time to increase LIHEAP $3.3 billion. [Senate vote 42, 3/14/06; Senate vote 57, 3/16/06]

Smith voted against increasing Unemployment Benefits Six Times: 1. Senate Vote 234, 9/15/05; 2. Senate Vote 293, 10/11/01; 3. Senate Vote 338, 11/14/01; Senate Vote 269, 7/10/03; Senate Vote 199, 5/23/03; and once in the Oregon Senate Too! - Vote on SB 954, 1993

* * *

What Smith says now: Approve a multi-year extension of the county payments safety net to help stabilize rural economies in 44 states [Smith press release, 1/23/08]

What Smith's Record Says: Smith Believes in a Limited Role for Government in Economic Development

In 1995, Smith wanted to cut Gov. Kitzhaber’s rural development budget by over 45 percent, from $15 million to $8.2 million. At a meeting of Wallowa County residents, Smith defended his cutting aid to rural Oregon communities by saying rural development funds needed to be “re-evaluated. The rural development fund may not be dead but it’s on life support.” Smith then went onto to say that he believed that “government should take on a limited role in economic development.” [Baker City Herald, 4/7/95] And where was Smith getting this done when the Republicans had a 10-vote majority in the U.S. Senate? It’s not called the Craig-Wyden-Smith bill for a reason.

* * *

What Smith says now: Provide tax and regulatory relief to small businesses so they can afford to buy new equipment, innovate, compete and hire new workers [Smith press release, 1/23/08]

What Smith's Record Says: Smith Votes Against Closing Tax Loopholes Requiring Reinvestment in Our Economy

Smith voted twice against closing a corporate tax loophole to make corporations invest overseas profits in the U.S. Smith voted against an amendment that would have allowed corporations to pay a reduced tax rate on foreign profits even if they were used to create jobs in the U.S. Then, Smith voted against closing the loophole so the American corporations can avoid taxes by leaving profits in an off-shore account. [Senate votes 81, 83, 5/5/04] So regular Americans have to pay income taxes, but with Gordon Smith, corporations don’t.

* * *

What Smith says now: Provide a fair rate and a safe way for first time homebuyers to refinance their mortgage and avoid foreclosure [Smith press release, 1/23/08]

What Smith's Record says: Smith’s Vote Helped Cause the Crisis - At least Now he Tries to Clean Up his Mess

Smith voted against a bill to provide more regulation of the sub-prime mortgage market. The bill would have prohibited sub-prime lenders who make illegal or unprotected loans from declaring bankruptcy to avoid legal or financial responsibility. [Senate vote 24, 3/13/01]

Wednesday Tidbits

2008-01-30T14:17:00.000-05:00

Kentucky: The filing deadline elapsed yesterday at 4pm and ten people filed for the 2008 Senate race. Two Republicans filed: incumbent Mitch McConnell and political unknown Daniel Essek. Sadly, no Larry Forgy. Eight Democrats filed. The five lesser known names that are expected to bring up the back of the pack are Dr. Michael Cassaro, James Rice, Kenneth Stepp, David Williams, and David Wylie. The three bigger names expected to vie for the Democratic nomination are Lieutenant Colonel Andrew Horne, businessman Greg Fischer, and two-time gubernatorial candidate Bruce Lunsford. Much more analysis to come very soon.

Maine: Gerald at Turn Maine Blue is also questioning what Susan Collins spent her time doing while Chair of the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. He runs through the schedule of hearings from Committee, a significant amount of it dealing with committee "business" and nominations, and he concludes his post:

As reports of incredible amounts of waste in Iraq increased in the media, one wonders why Collins held just one hearing on the reconstruction efforts there (and that to just to get a briefing on SIG Bowen's 2006 report) and none on the assistance our government was giving to the fledgling Iraqi state (either direct aid or through private contractors).

There is only one reason that I can think of why Collins refused to, in her own words, "expose and eliminate wasteful spending" in Iraq: she chose not to.

The question is then: Why?

I hope we'll find out the answer to that question. In the meantime, I await response from Collins' staff to my recent e-mail.

Minnesota: MN Blue translates for us Norm Coleman's response to the State of the Union. (Basically, Smilin' Norm is desperately hoping for somebody to throw him a rope.) Meanwhile, Al Franken is everywhere.

John Edwards should be lauded for the vigorous campaign he waged, in which he brought important issues to the forefront and advocated for those who too often lack an advocate. Will he endorse before February 5? We'll see. So on the Democratic side, it's Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton. On the Republican side it's Mitt Romney or John McCain (...or Mike Huckabee or Ron Paul). For the Dems, it seems that Hillary has the poll numbers but Barack has the momentum. For the GOP, John looks strong; but, if Mitt can convince Republicans that it's a two-person race and that he's the "better conservative," he has a shot to pull it out.

An Open E-mail to Jen Burita, Press Secretary to Susan Collins

2008-01-29T19:54:00.000-05:00

Maine: With considerable discussion recently over how aggressive Susan Collins really was in investigating waste and mismanagement in Iraq, I figured it would be worthwhile to go right to the source. I will keep readers apprised to any response.

Subject: Hearings Held by then-Chairwoman Collins
From: Senate 2008 Guru
To: Jen Burita, Press Secretary to Senator Susan Collins
CC: Elissa Davidson, media contact for Susan Collins' campaign
Date: 1/29/08

Ms. Burita,

On January 8, David Offer had published an op-ed in the Kennebec Journal/Morning Sentinel discussing billions of dollars in waste and mismanagement in Iraq.

Mr. Offer followed up that op-ed with one this morning in which he raises the prospect that Senator Collins was not as aggressive a Chair of the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs as she could have been when it came to investigating and holding hearings on waste and mismanagement in Iraq.

In this morning's column, Mr. Offer mentions your effort to highlight Senator Collins' aggressiveness as Chair:

She [Ms. Burita] sent me a list of 14 hearings held between June 4, 2003, and Oct. 17, 2007, on subjects including the Defense Department personnel system, cheating contractors, government purchasing, FEMA's response to Hurricane Katrina and Iraq reconstruction.

I am writing to ask you to forward me that list of 14 hearings that you sent Mr. Offer. I am very curious as to the content of these hearings and would very much appreciate the enlightenment. With these hearings having ostensibly been public record, I don't anticipate that this request should be a problem.

I very much look forward to reading through the list.

Kindest regards,
Senate 2008 Guru
http://senate2008guru.blogspot.com/

Tuesday Briefs

2008-01-29T13:58:00.000-05:00

Maine: Back on January 8, David Offer, the former executive editor of the Kennebec Journal, put out an op-ed highlighting his discontent with waste and mismanagement in Iraq. However, he did not seem to place any of the blame for the waste and mismanagement at the feet of Susan Collins, who served as Chair of the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs during the middle years of this decade and was in a position to investigate and hold oversight hearings on such waste and mismanagement. So the Guru suggested that Offer should place some of the blame with Collins.

This morning, Offer put out a follow-up op-ed piece, where he does thoughtfully consider that maybe Collins did have a role to play (and he quotes the Guru). Unfortunately, he does, in part, chalk up the debate to one's "political leanings." Regardless of one's political leanings, it doesn't change the facts that Senators repeatedly pled with Collins to be far more aggressive in her oversight duties as Committee Chair and that Collins balked. If Collins was more aggressive, then this particular criticism of her record would not exist. In today's op-ed Offer says, "I'll leave it to others to decide if she could or should have done more or done it earlier." Well, let me decide, then. Yes, she should have done much more and she should have done it much earlier. If Collins had, there would likely be far less waste and mismanagement in Iraq.

Kentucky: A two-fer from BlueGrassRoots: Bob Novak highlights Mitch McConnell's support for pork-filled earmarks; and WaPo highlights McConnell's hypocrisy on up-or-down votes for presidential appointments. Meanwhile, the Lexington Herald-Leader reminds us that the filing deadline for Kentucky is 4pm today. Come on, Larry Forgy!

Mississippi: Republican Thad Cochran doesn't want anybody laying a finger on his precious, precious earmarks.

Alaska: Republican Ted Stevens also doesn't want anybody laying a finger on his precious, precious earmarks.

Nebraska: It looks like Republican-turned-Democratic businessman Tony Raimondo is on the brink of a 2008 Senate bid. We're also still waiting for word from Scott Kleeb, whose answer should come by the first week of February.

North Carolina: From the "Huh?" file: Elizabeth Dole's latest fundraising gimmick is sending her previous donors a $1 bill and asking them to send it back with a check for more. By sending people cash, regardless of the amount, ostensibly in exchange for campaign contributions, is she breaking any campaign finance laws? Hmmmm...

New Hampshire: John Sununu and the Guru agree on one thing: John Sununu is no expert.

Minnesota: Join the DSCC's Norm Coleman Caption Contest! (Smilin' Norm dressed identically to George W. Bush at the State of the Union and seems thrilled to be George W's wingman.)

Monday Night Items

2008-01-28T21:53:00.000-05:00

Senate Republicans again prove that political opportunism, hypocrisy, and empty political posturing are their strongest suits as they "simultaneously fear-monger about the lapse of the Protect America Act while at the same time rejecting Democratic efforts to extend it for thirty days." Time after time, Senate Republicans demonstrate that they care far more about attempting to dishonestly score political points than they care about protecting the United States.

Georgia: A new Zogby Interactive poll has some very interesting results. Only 38% of respondents said that Spineless Saxby Chambliss deserves another term, while a whopping 49% say that they think it's time for someone new. Also, a blind bio match-up between Chambliss and Democratic candidate Josh Lanier found Lanier's bio beating Chambliss' bio 47-45. Especially notable was that Lanier's bio beat Chambliss' bio among independents by an overwhelming 57-32 margin. I'm not saying that Georgia's all of a sudden a top-tier race, but these results are interesting. (HT: TT)

Idaho: Holy cow! The 2008 Republican Senate primary has ballooned to nine candidates. Joining GOP Lt. Gov. Jim Risch, Rancher Rex Rammell, Iraq veteran Scott Syme, Former Caldwell City Councilman Kent Marmon, and Businessman Richard Phenneger are former Boise Mayoral candidate Harley Brown, Machinist Brian Hefner, Attorney Fred Adams, and Neal Thompson.

Iowa: Remember how Mike Huckabee surprised everybody by winning the Iowa caucuses, largely propelled by religious conservatives, demonstrating the population's potent political muscle? And, separately, remember how 74-year-old Republican Senator Chuck Grassley suggested that he intends to run for another term in 2010? Well, I wonder if any enthusiasm for Grassley to run again, particularly among Iowa's religious conservative population, will wane significantly in light of his efforts to investigate the possible mis-use of funds by Pentecostal ministries. Will religious conservatives hold Grassley's investigative efforts against him?

Did anybody else notice Dick Cheney nodding off during the State of the Union (around 9:25-9:30ish Eastern time)?

Monday Rundown

2008-01-28T13:16:00.000-05:00

With tonight being George W. Bush's last State of the Union address, we should remember how Susan Collins, Norm Coleman, Gordon Smith, Elizabeth Dole, and Mitch McConnell regarded the previous SOTU speeches; they loved 'em!

South Dakota: From the pages of the Argus Leader comes a glowing endorsement of why South Dakotans should re-elect Senator Tim Johnson.

Maine: Finally, the Maine media is beginning to pick up on what a fraud Susan Collins is when it comes to oversight on waste and mismanagement in Iraq. Collins looks out for the interests of George W. Bush and his corporate cronies more than she looks out for the interests of Maine's families. Why? Because she's a "team player" (emphasis added by me):

After a while I got up to go get something from the café cart, and it turns out the guy sitting behind me was Rick Santorum, which makes it all the more fun and all the more interesting. So pretty much the whole trip this guy is working his cell phone, talking to people about how anyone is better than McCain and Giuliani would be better than McCain because then at least he wouldn't betray the conservative movement… yeah, Giuliani is bad on some issues like abortion, but at least he would stand with the conservative movement. He was saying that there are people like Susan Collins who vote moderate sometimes, but at least she is a team player who always plays with the team and never plays against the conservative side even if she has to give the liberals a vote because she's from Maine.

Rick Santorum knows that Susan Collins is in the Bush administration's pocket. (HT: Collins Watch) Let's all help Congressman Tom Allen make sure that Maine voters know that Susan Collins is in the Bush administration's pocket by contributing to his campaign to oust Collins.

Massachusetts: The National Republican Senatorial Committee's blog declares that Senator John Kerry should "watch out" for the candidacy of Republican Jim Ogonowski. If the NRSC thinks that Ogonowski is truly a candidate worthy of making Senator Kerry "watch out," then surely they'll commit to spending a significant amount of money in Massachusetts (say, a few hundred thousand dollars) on Ogonowski's behalf. Of course, if the NRSC is not willing to get behind his campaign with a financial commitment, then they must not really think all that much of his candidacy. Ball's in your court, NRSC.

Colorado: Backwards Bob Schaffer knows that his conservative record won't get him elected, so he's running from the conservative label.

Illinois: The Associated Press is blunt but accurate:

The U.S. Senate candidate officially endorsed by the Illinois GOP's leadership doesn't even have one-hundredth the campaign cash of incumbent Dick Durbin.

Durbin has $7.3 million in his bankroll, compared with $67,000 in Republican Steve Sauerberg's account (and that's after Sauerberg loaned $250,000 to his campaign).

Sunday Quick Hits

2008-01-27T16:27:00.000-05:00

Thank you! State Representative and Lieutenant Colonel Rick Noriega has crossed the $1,000 threshold on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page. You guys are awesome!

Texas: Speaking of Representative Noriega, he gave a fantastic speech as he accepted the endorsement of the AFL-CIO (HT: BOR):

West Virginia: The filing deadline in West Virginia has passed, and it appears that Senator Jay Rockefeller's only Republican opposition will be his 2002 GOP opponent, Jay Wolfe. As a reminder, Rockefeller crushed Wolfe 63-37. With no Shelley Moore Capito, Betty Ireland, or even John Raese running, we can chalk up West Virginia as another official blown opportunity by the NRSC for a competitive race.

Saturday Tidbits

2008-01-26T16:04:00.000-05:00

Texas: Bush-rubber-stamp John Cornyn brought in $1.7 million in Q4 of 2007, bringing his cash-on-hand to $7.5 million. We'll see if that buys enough TV ads to muddy his terrible record on behalf of Texas families.

Oregon: The Novick campaign paid staffer also serving as coordinator for an organization endorsing in the 2008 Senate primary has, at long last, sought to bring an end to the controversy by ceding her leadership role with the organization, she informed people via e-mail. It's about time - and if that had been done from the start, it would have prevented the entire controversy. But I have to say I'm quite bothered by the first sentence of her e-mail:

I wanted to write you in response to attacks that have been leveled against my involvement in Progressive Democrats of America (PDA).

This indicates to me that she, and the Novick campaign, still don't get it. Kimmerly can be involved in whatever organization she wants; and PDA is a terrific one, as is its mission. But she can't be both the leader of such an organization and a paid staffer on a campaign seeking its endorsement without there being a conflict of interest. That was the entire point the whole time. It's not an attack against her or her "involvement." (I presume she's intentionally missing the point here.) It's not an attack against the Novick campaign. It's a preference against conflicts of interest, plain and simple. The conflict of interest is finally removed; but, unfortunately for PDA-Oregon, their endorsement in this primary campaign will have a taint to it, a taint that could have been avoided.

In other Oregon news, the Democratic Party of Oregon offers another terrific piece outlining a number of issues on which Gordon Smith is completely out of step with Oregon. And, from Speaker Jeff Merkley's campaign, Netroots Outreach Coordinator Carla Axtman personalizes the campaign explaining why she came to work on Speaker Merkley's campaign.

Missouri: Republican former Senator Jim Talent says he won't run for Governor in the wake of Matt Blunt's withdrawal from the race. Just looking ahead, that means he's free for another Senate run in 2010 in case Republican Kit Bond retires.

Here's even more evidence that open, transparent government is anathema to Republicans.

Hahahahahahahahahahaha:

Oh, and to anyone who thinks that John McCain doesn't play politics with our soldiers' lives, think again.

Friday Items

2008-01-25T16:01:00.000-05:00

Rick Noriega is now only $63 from the $1,000 mark on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page! If you can chip in a little, help put him over the top.

Discord in the Senate Republican ranks? CQ Politics sees conservative Republican Senators disregarding the course set by new Republican Conference Chairman Lamar Alexander. Meanwhile, The Hill has Mike Enzi "pissed" at Republican leadership for bypassing him for the Finance Committee seat that opened up when Trent Lott resigned, giving the spot to the more junior and more politically-vulnerable John Sununu. Enzi was also bypassed for a Finance Committee seat last year when his Wyoming colleague Craig Thomas passed away and that seat went ot the more junior John Ensign as a reward for Chairing the NRSC.

Speaking of NRSC Chairman John Ensign, he gave an interview to RealClearPolitics that was so laughable, tears are still streaming down my face. Among the highlights:

In elections, you know, obviously more money is better. But if you look at the election, it isn't always a question of who has more money that wins. It is who does better with their money, who has better messaging. Conrad Burns dramatically outspent Tester. George Allen outspent Jim Webb," he said. "You can go down race by race -- Jim Talent outspent McCaskill -- I mean, race by race there are a lot of races where we outspent the Democrats and we lost.

OK, John, so now you have weaker messaging and less money, and you think your prospects are better for it? And his best defense for the very vulnerable John Sununu?

If you look up in the dictionary somebody who's from New Hampshire, you'll see his picture. He is born, raised, bred...

Yeah, Sununu 2008! He's, um, from the state in which he's running for office, I guess. Feel the excitement! Oh, and this classic defense of GOP chances in New Mexico:

"They have a little advantage because we have a primary and they don't," he said. "At the same time, that doesn't mean you can't win. We saw that in Virginia. [In 2006, Democrats] had a primary, George Allen didn't. [Allen] lost. So it still depends on who runs the good races."

All that demonstrates is that George Allen is a yutz who couldn't hold his seat despite a huge money advantage, the power of incumbency, and his opponent occupied with a primary challenge. Ensign then tried to hint at recruitments to come for the GOP:

While refusing to divulge names, Ensign hinted that two new candidates could emerge in Iowa and South Dakota, to take on Senators Tom Harkin and Tim Johnson. "If we're able to sign them, they will be absolutely heavyweight -- they are heavyweight candidates and if we can get them on board, they will be absolutely national races that people will pay attention to right away," he said.

I don't want to ruin the surprise, but, yeah, if the NRSC could recruit Tom Latham and Mike Rounds, it would be significant. But every indication so far is that Harkin would beat Latham like the several Republican Congressmen who have challenged him in the past; and, so far, Mike Rounds ain't interested. But keep those fingers crossed, John. Ensign closes the interview by lowering the goalposts even further:

"I think worst case scenario -- 45, 46 [seats, a loss of three or four]," he said. "If we have a real bad night, we're 45. A good night for us, staying 48, 49, that's a real good night."

How long before Ensign cops to the worst case scenario being 44? 43? 42?

Oregon: Last evening, Speaker Jeff Merkley and a campaign aide were in a car accident when the car skidded on an ice patch and flipped over. Thank goodness both Merkley and his campaign aide were unhurt (both were wearing their seat belts - let that be a lesson!). In fact, Merkley was even able to complete his evening schedule! Holy freakin' cow! A car flipping over didn't slow Merkley down; what chance does Gordon Smith have?!?

In other Oregon news, Reverend John-Mark Gilhousen, a peace activist and Progressive Democrats of America member, reflects on the recent brouhaha over the PDA endorsement "process" in the Democratic Senate primary. Reverend Gilhousen notes that, even though he is a PDA member and receives their e-mails, he found out about the endorsement "process" not from any e-mail or call to members, but from the media covering the conflict of interest presented by Novick campaign staffer Liz Kimmerly also serving as the PDA-Oregon coordinator, a conflict of interest that remains unaddressed.

Colorado: The League of Conservation Voters has named Backwards Bob Schaffer to their 2008 Dirty Dozen list for Schaffer's terribly anti-environmental record. LCV comments:

"During his tenure in Congress, Bob Schaffer worked to get Big Oil $33 billion in tax breaks by supporting an energy bill written by Dick Cheney and the oil industry. After leaving the House, he went to work for Big Oil. Now he wants to return to Washington to work for them in the Senate," said LCV Senior Vice President and Colorado native Tony Massaro. "Coloradans deserve a senator who works for them, not Big Oil."

I wonder if "Big Oil" will be listed as Schaffer's Party designation on the ballot.

Alaska: Democratic leadership is still very publicly urging Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich to take on appearance of impropriety maven Ted Stevens in the 2008 Senate race, and Begich isn't demurring:

"People are looking for results-oriented leadership, and mayors are about that," Begich said, after leading a seminar on how cities can cooperate with military bases. "We get stuff done. We do not sit there and dilly-dally. We do not get into partisan bickering. I think the country, and Alaskans, are striving for leadership that is no longer partisan bickering, but focused on getting things done."

Begich said he also got a push from fellow U.S. mayors, including one Florida mayor with influential union connections who took to calling him "Senator Begich" at the conference.

"I don't even get questions, I get people who come to me and say, 'We're there for you.'" Begich said. "It's a consistent flow here. They're asking me, wondering. And some are just flat-out saying, 'go, go, go, what do we need to do?'"

I'm very much looking forward to Begich '08!

New Mexico: It appears that Republican Heather Wilson is "push-polling" her primary opponent, Congressman Steve Pearce. Not only does Wilson have a history of such tactics, going back to her 2006 Congressional re-election bid against state Attorney General Patsy Madrid, but we know that Wilson has no problem performing ethically questionable acts to achieve favorable electoral ends.

Idaho: Democratic Senate candidate and former Congressman Larry LaRocco has completed his fifteenth job on his Working for the Senate tour, working at the Dworshak National Fish Hatchery. The guy is all hustle.

Draw your own conclusions on this one. An aide to John McCain set up a private meeting in Switzerland between McCain, Saxby Chambliss, John Sununu and one Oleg Deripaska. Who is Oleg Deripaska? The Washington Post describes him as "a Russian billionaire whose suspected links to anti-democratic and organized-crime figures are so controversial that the U.S. government revoked his visa." This is who John Sununu and Saxby Chambliss set up clandestine international meetings with. Shady with a capital SHADY.

I don't want to just bluntly say that Fox News' Bret Baier is dumb, but in discussing an interview with George W. Bush, he commented:

I tell you what — he thinks about Lincoln and the tough times that he had during the Civil War. 600,000 dead. The country essentially hated him when he was leaving office.

Ummm, Bret, Abraham Lincoln didn't "leave office" in the sense that he was voted out or term limited. Lincoln was, well, kind of - what's the word? - assassinated. I thought that was common knowledge.

Thursday Quick Hits

2008-01-24T13:36:00.000-05:00

New Hampshire: Popular former Governor Jeanne Shaheen took in a healthy $1.3 million in Q4-2007 for her 2008 Senate bid.

Maine: The New York Times eviscerates Susan Collins:

One of the greatest disappointments on this score has been Susan Collins of Maine, who is now up for re-election. Ms. Collins bills herself as a strong supporter of choice — something that has added to her reputation for independence — but she has rubber-stamped judges who are doing great damage to the right to choose.

"Two-Faced" Susan is a giant hypocrite. (HT: Collins Watch) For good measure, Cliff Schecter tears Collins a new one on several issues.

Minnesota: Because Norm Coleman apparently has no accomplishments of his own to tout, Coleman is just releasing more attack ads, even though he is the incumbent and there is still more than nine months from Election Day and the Democratic primary is still far from decided. Coleman must be very, very worried. And with good cause, given that his one-time huge lead has evaporated into a statistical dead heat and given that Franken has routinely out-fundraised Coleman.

New Mexico: Republican Steve Pearce only managed to squeeze about $50,000 from the fundraiser he held with Dick Cheney. In November, a Cheney fundraiser brought in $110,000 for Republican Heather Wilson.

Wednesday Briefs

2008-01-23T14:42:00.000-05:00

North Carolina: Public Policy Polling has released some more numbers. Elizabeth Dole's approve-disapprove comes in at a weak 44-33; and, she's back under 50% against both Democratic opponents: leading State Senator Kay Hagan 48-35 and leading businessman Jim Neal 49-30.

Maine: While Congressman Tom Allen opposes warrantless wiretapping and retroactive immunity for telecommunications companies complicit in such activities, Susan Collins supports letting the telecomm companies off the hook for their role in illegal wiretapping, like a good Bushie.

Oregon: Last night saw the first Democratic Senate primary debate; and, by several accounts, it was a very agreeable affair in which the Democratic chorus vocalized why Oregon would benefit greatly by replacing Gordon Smith.

Mississippi: It is fairly incontrovertible that Ronnie Musgrove is far more fiscally responsible than Roger Wicker.

New Mexico: Democracy for New Mexico and New Mexico FBIHOP are teaming up on a fundraising effort for Democrats in the Land of Enchantment, including Senate candidate Congressman Tom Udall, to counter Republican fundraising efforts by Dick Cheney and Karl Rove in New Mexico. Contributing to their effort is a direct rebuke of Cheney-Rove, and isn't that reason enough?

Alaska: Ted Stevens is getting into fights with fellow Republican Senators over his addiction to earmarks for pork barrel projects.

Breaking news: apparently George W. Bush has bent the truth a little regarding Iraq, to the tune of 935 catalogued lies, courtesy of The Center for Public Integrity.

Tuesday Round-Up

2008-01-22T16:08:00.000-05:00

The Cook Political Report's latest 2008 Senate Race Ratings (in PDF format) have been released, and it continues to look good for Democrats. For Democratic seats, Louisiana is "lean dem," South Dakota is "likely dem," and the other ten are "safe dem." Meanwhile, for Republican-held seats, Virginia is "likely dem," Colorado, New Hampshire and New Mexico are "toss up," Maine and Minnesota are "lean rep," and Alaska, Nebraska, Oregon, and the Mississippi seat from which Trent Lott resigned are "likely rep," with the other thirteen Republican-held seats "safe rep." If the Mississippi Supreme Court upholds the lower court's ruling of a special election within 90 days, expect Missippi to enter the more competitive categories, along with Alaska (if/when Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich announces) and Oregon. And certainly don't expect all thirteen seats currently in "safe rep" to remain there over the winter and spring.

Nathan L. Gonzales has an insightful piece up on The Rothenberg Political Report entitled "History Working Against Senate GOP." In it, he even gets NRSC flack Rebecca Fisher to acknowledge the "overwhelming hurdles" Senate Republicans face. Gonzales also reminds us that the picture for Senate Republicans looks similarly difficult in 2010, when they have to defend 19 seats to Democrats' 15; but the numbers picture improves considerably in 2012 when Democrats have 23 seats to defend against the GOP's nine (a reflection of what a strong year 2006 was for Democrats).

Maine: Congressman Tom Allen has a phenomenal new biographical video up on his website:

Even horror writer Stephen King gets how scary it would be to have Susan Collins in the Senate for another six years:

The politically active author is supporting Democratic U.S. Rep. Tom Allen in his run for Republican Susan Collins’ Senate seat.

"We’ve had enough Bush Republicanism to last the country for a long time," he said. "We’re seeing a lot of chickens come home to roost because of Bush Administration policies. You can’t pump billions of dollars into a foreign war without it affecting the economy."

And Susan Collins truly represents Bush Republicanism.

Oregon: The brouhaha over the conflict of interest caused by Novick campaign paid staffer Liz Kimmerly also running an organization - the Oregon chapter of Progressive Democrats of America (PDA) - endorsing in the primary (and apparently having tried to expedite the endorsement process against the policy of the national PDA) continues on as even Novick's supporters have questions that still remain unanswered. Nobody knows what Kimmerly's intent was - whether her goal was to railroad an endorsement process or what (and nobody knows what Novick's campaign manager and Novick himself knew and when they knew it) - but the undisputed facts remain that she was and is both a paid staffer of a campaign and the coordinator of an organization endorsing in the race; and, that is unquestionably a conflict of interest. The entire situation could be de-fused by Kimmerly removing herself from PDA-Oregon leadership for the duration of the campaign and apologzing for any appearance of impropriety caused by her actions. Still, silence.

There is, however, another mini-scandal afoot in Oregon. The NRSC has hired a tracker to follow Speaker Jeff Merkley around, obviously to acquire footage for use in helping Gordon Smith's re-election campaign. (No, that part is not the scandal, even though use of a tracker is something Susan Collins' chief of staff says "demeans the political process.") The scandalous part of this is that, instead of just attending events and filming footage, the tracker is lying to the Merkley campaign about his identity to gain information about and access to events. I guess if Republican Senators are going to be dishonest time and time again, their staffers have to follow suit.

Minnesota: Ahead of the February 5 precinct caucuses, Minnesota Public Radio sees a great deal of enthusiasm on the DFL side; and, it looks like Al Franken's Senate campaign has the most momentum as the caucuses approach.

Nebraska: Scott Kleeb is meeting with Democratic Party leaders in Washington D.C., ostensibly to discuss a 2008 Senate bid, and will make a decision about his 2008 political plans "in the next two weeks."

New Mexico: New Mexico FBIHOP recognizes the supreme irony that Republicans Heather Wilson's and Pete Domenici's inappropriate actions to impact the 2006 election will contribute to Wilson's likely defeat in her 2008 bid to succeed Domenici.

South Dakota: The Rapid City Journal takes note of Republicans' inability to mount a significant challenge to Senator Tim Johnson.

Have a Reflective Martin Luther King Day

2008-01-21T12:55:00.000-05:00

Click play, and close your eyes, and let the words resonate in your ears.

Sunday Catch-Up

2008-01-20T21:05:00.000-05:00

Just $78 until Rick Noriega crosses the $1,000 mark on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page. Please please please please please please chip in?

New Jersey: The latest Monmouth University poll (in PDF format) sees Senator Frank Lautenberg with an approve-disapprove of 43-28, which is actually very strong for Democratic Senate incumbents in New Jersey. The poll also sees Lautenberg with at least a 14-point lead over all polled Republican opponents. (HT: Blue Jersey)

Oregon: Yesterday, the Guru highlighted the hubbub over a staffer for Steve Novick's Senate campaign also coordinating the endorsement process for a statewide organization, despite the obvious conflict of interest and without regard for procedure as dictated by the national office of which the state organization is a chapter. Subsequently, this recap of the organization's first meeting since the story broke (the meeting at which the possibly-illegitimate endorsement was originally supposed to be pushed through) offers every indication: that the Novick staffer will continue to push forward for the endorsement; that the Novick campaign will take no action against the staffer's ethically questionable conduct; and, that the purpose of the meeting and possibly the very formation of the local chapter was not to organize progressive Democrats in the state but rather to generate a sham endorsement for Novick. Stay tuned.

Michigan: Although Michigan's filing deadline isn't until May 13, it continues to look like Senator Carl Levin will face only token Republican opposition in the person of either failed '02 challenger Rocky Raczkowski or state rep. Jack Hoogendyk.

Saturday Round-Up

2008-01-19T17:58:00.000-05:00

In Chris Cillizza's latest Senate Line, we again see nine Republican-held seats up and only one Democratic seat. The newest entry is the Mississippi seat from which Trent Lott resigned.

Oregon: Reports from Oregon have Senate candidate Steve Novick's Online Director, Liz Kimmerly, orchestrating the Senate endorsement on behalf of the Oregon Chapter of the Progressive Democrats of America (PDA), for which Kimmerly serves as State Coordinator (see graphic to the right), despite an obvious conflict of interest, and which was apparently created very recently. Whether the national office of PDA asked Kimmerly to start the chapter or whether Kimmerly volunteered herself (possibly with the intent of using the organization to score an endorsement for Novick) is unclear; but the executive director of PDA was unaware of Kimmerly's association with the Novick campaign. That means that either Kimmerly volunteered herself to start the chapter, knowingly disregarding the conflict of interest, or she was approached by PDA and accepted the organizer role without disclosing her campaign duties, deceitfully propagating the conflict of interest.

It gets worse. While PDA has a policy in their endorsement process of a written questionnaire sent to the campaigns prior to the endorsement interview and 30 days notice before such an interview, Speaker Jeff Merkley's Senate campaign received an e-mail (from Novick online director Kimmerly, in her PDA-Oregon role!) informing them of the endorsement interview on only four days notice. Extrapolate for a moment. Kimmerly must have sent her own campaign a similar e-mail, which probably went before their scheduler or political director, and up the flagpole to the campaign manager. While Novick himself may have very well not known about this conflict of interest, surely Novick campaign higher-ups did. As the Eugene Register-Guard reports:

Novick campaign manager Jake Weigler said no one on his staff, including Kimmerly, saw the PDA endorsement as an opportunity to game the system. He said Kimmerly had been involved with the Progressive Dems when she lived in Los Angeles before relocating to Portland, so it made sense that she would start a chapter here for reasons other than to help her candidate pick up an endorsement.

Ummm, Jake, that doesn't matter if Kimmerly had previous ties to PDA. You can't claim "pre-existing condition" like a conflict-of-interest HMO. Once Kimmerly took on her role with the Novick campaign, ethical standards suggest that she should have suspended any leadership role with any organization that would endorse in the campaign. In response to this brouhaha, PDA has delayed the endorsement interviews and taken Kimmerly out of the role of organizing the process, but it stands to reason that any PDA-Oregon endorsement of Novick would be, at the very least, fairly tainted. Beyond that, this is embarrassing for the Novick campaign. If this were a Republican campaign, we would probably be calling for Kimmerly's resignation from the Novick campaign, something the Guru has called for in the past in response to unseemly actions from Republicans. We'll wait and see what steps the Novick campaign chooses to take in response to this incident.

South Carolina: One of Lindsey Graham's primary opponents, Republican National Committee member Buddy Witherspoon, already has web ads up attacking Graham's record on immigration:

Expect more of the same for months from all of Graham's many primary opponents, including former Myrtle Beach Mayor Mark McBride and Air Force veteran John Cina. (HT: Schecter)

Maine: Collins Watch wonders what role reproductive and privacy rights will play in the 2008 Senate race between Tom Allen and Susan Collins. I expect a big role given that, despite her alleged pro-choice position, Collins supported for the Supreme Court George W. Bush's nominee's Sam Alito and John Roberts, who are leading the charge to dismantle reproductive and privacy rights. For more on Susan Collins' record of lies, hypocrisies, and double-talk, read this column by the Guru.

Kentucky: Following great rhetoric from Lieutenant Colonel Andrew Horne like "Simply put, while Mitch McConnell carries George Bush's water on Iraq, I carried a rifle in Iraq," we now have this gem: "The hard truth is that there is no greater roadblock to progress in Congress than Mitch McConnell." I'll tell you, the prospect of a debate between Mitch McConnell and Andrew Horne has me pretty psyched.

New Mexico: Mark your calendars for one month from today, February 19th. We will have the first Steve Pearce vs. Heather Wilson 2008 Republican Senate primary Smackdown. Oh boy, I hope they go negative!

Republican Congressman Ron Paul is shaping up to come in second place in Nevada's Republican Presidential Caucuses today, ahead of the likes of John McCain, Fred Thompson, Mike Huckabee, and Rudy Giuliani (or 9iu11ani depending on your preferred spelling). Congratulations, Congressman Paul! While Thompson and Giuliani have experience losing to Paul, I wonder how it makes Huckabee and McCain feel.

Friday Quick Hits

2008-01-18T13:15:00.000-05:00

State Representative and Lieutenant Colonel Rick Noriega is now only $78 away from the $1,000 mark on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page. Can you help by putting just $10 toward his crossing the $1,000 threshold?

Oregon: The Democratic Party of Oregon (DPO) gives us a twofer. First, the DPO highlights Gordon Smith's latest double-talk and empty rhetoric on Iraq. Second, the DPO offers five questions that Smith should be asked in a debate.

Mississippi: Cotton Mouth highlights some of Roger Wicker's lousy ratings from veterans groups, including:

2006 Senator Wicker supported the interests of the Disabled American Veterans 50 percent in 2006.

2006 In 2006 Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America gave Senator Wicker a grade of C+.

2006 Senator Wicker sponsored or co-sponsored 21 percent of the legislation favored by the The Retired Enlisted Association in 2006.

2005 Senator Wicker supported the interests of the Disabled American Veterans 0 percent in 2005.

2004 Senator Wicker supported the interests of the Disabled American Veterans 0 percent in 2004.

2004 Senator Wicker supported the interests of the The Retired Enlisted Association 33 percent in 2004.

2003-2004 Senator Wicker supported the interests of the Vietnam Veterans of America 38 percent in 2003-2004.

Over the last few years, Wicker has voted pretty terribly on veterans' issues. It still infuriates me when Republicans like Wicker pay lip service to supporting the troops and looking out for our veterans when they clearly don't vote that way.

Louisiana: 1996 Republican Senate candidate Woody Jenkins, who narrowly lost to Senator Mary Landrieu in her first Senate victory, is opting for a Congressional run instead of a Senate run, in which he had earlier expressed interest.

Nebraska: Former state legislative candidate and air force veteran Larry Marvin says he'll enter the 2008 Senate Democratic primary.

Thursday Rundown

2008-01-17T15:28:00.000-05:00

Kentucky: Businessman Greg Fischer has officially joined Lieutenant Colonel Andrew Horne in the 2008 Democratic Senate primary, and he's put up a campaign website. Fischer is expected to put a considerable amount of his own money into his campaign. As long as the primary remains positive, civil, and focused on the failings of Mitch McConnell, it should be productive in raising the Democratic candidates' profiles. Speaking of Mitch McConnell's failings, the Lousiville Courier-Journal slams Mitch McConnell's obstructionism in support of Big Oil.

Mississippi: As expected, GOP Gov. Haley Barbour is appealing to the state supreme court the decision against allowing Barbour to delay the special election to succeed Trent Lott until November. Mississippi blogger Will Bardwell offers a thoughtful analysis suggesting that there is a chance that the heavily Republican Mississippi supreme court might uphold the lower court's ruling, as the judge in the case relied heavily on previous legal opinions of many of the current supreme court judges. Meanwhile, following yesterday's WaPo story on the ethically-questionable relationship between Republican Senate-appointee Roger Wicker and the Aurora Corporation, local media in Mississippi have begun tracking the story.

Idaho: Former Congressman and Democratic Senate candidate Larry LaRocco has a terrific new radio ad playing (text in PDF format) that hits Republican Jim Risch on his lies about taxes:

In the 2006 Gem State Voter guide, Risch promised to never support a tax increase. Oops. Risch then orchestrated a 20% sales tax increase. But it gets worse. Jim Risch also promised not to tax food. In fact, Jim Risch's tax raising scheme does tax food... making Idaho one of only a handful of states to fully tax groceries. What’s even more unbelievable, Risch’s 20% tax raise for you gives big tax breaks to out-of-state land owners and speculators.

The ad can be heard online here. Republicans aren't just corrupt; they're also dishonest.

Wyoming: Attorney Nick Carter is considering a 2008 Senate bid against Senate-appointee John Barrasso.

North Carolina: The latest Survey USA poll of the 2008 Democratic Senate primary sees State Senator Kay Hagan leading businessman Jim Neal by a 37-29 margin, with still more than a third of the poll respondents undecided.

Minnesota: Al Franken has secured the endorsement of the 70,000-member state teachers' union.

New Jersey: State senator Joe Pennacchio is expected to formally enter the 2008 Republican Senate primary today. Meanwhile, it looks like the GOP establishment in Washington DC is getting behind Republican real estate developer Anne Evans Estabrook, if contributions from John Ensign and Mitch McConnell are any indication. The ability to self-fund her campaign may be one of the main reasons they're supporting Estabrook, as she has already put $1.6 million of her own money into her campaign.

New Mexico: The Federal Election Commission ruled that Pete Domenici can use campaign funds to pay for legal bills resulting from the ethics inquiry into his role in the U.S. Attorney firing scandal. I suppose that's better than Domenici contributing it to the NRSC, and it'll serve as a continual reminder to New Mexicans of the Republican Culture of Corruption.

Wednesday Tidbits

2008-01-16T13:14:00.000-05:00

Minnesota: This is outstanding. An old college buddy of Norm Coleman's has taken out an ad wondering what Norman Coleman, the pot-smoking college student, would think of Norm Coleman, the hypocritical politician. You must read this.

Mississippi: The Guru was raising this issue over a month ago, and the Project on Government Oversight (POGO) blog even earlier. And now, finally, the Washington Post and Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington are picking up on the all-too-cozy relationship between Senate-appointee Roger Wicker and the Aurora Corporation. In a nutshell, Aurora was Congressman Wicker's top contributor in 2006; then, in 2007, Wicker secured a juicy earmark for Aurora; and, to top it off, the lobbyist working for Aurora was Wicker's former Chief of Staff. So there you go. As John Pruett of POGO mentions in the WaPo article:

John Pruett, a fellow at the Project on Government Oversight, said: "There are a thousand companies out there that make unmanned vehicles. Why did he choose Aurora? It points out that [it should not be] . . . left to the inclinations of a representative. There should be some standard."

Indeed. Not only contracting standards but ethical standards, too.

Oregon: Given that the Democrats looking to oust Republican Gordon Smith are within single digits of Smith in the polls despite very low name ID, The Hill chronicles what a promising pick-up opportunity Oregon is for Democrats.

Montana: Senator Max Baucus raised $1.5 million in Q4-2007, bringing his cash-on-hand to a massive $6.3 million.

Louisiana: With GOP Rep. Richard Baker, the dean of Louisiana's congressional delegation, definitely resigning from Congress, it serves as another reminder to Louisianans just how valuable Senator Mary Landrieu's seniority is.

New Hampshire: This just in: Sprintin' John Sununu is still way out of touch with Granite State voters.

Kentucky: This just in: Mitch McConnell and George W. Bush are, in fact, best friends forever.

North Carolina: Senate candidate Jim Neal sits down for a chat at Pam's House Blend.

Alaska: GOP Gov. Sarah Palin sends a subtle rebuke Ted Stevens' way.

Idaho: Veteran Scott Syme and businessman Richard Phenneger have put up nifty campaign websites, joining rancher Rex Rammell and former Caldwell City Councilman Kent Marmon, along with Lt. Gov. Jim Risch, in the 2008 Republican Senate primary. The winner of the crowded Republican primary, of course, faces Democratic former Congressman Larry LaRocco.

Oh, to be a fly on the wall of this get-together of Republican Senators.

Hooray for Mitt Romney and the continuation of the Republican circular firing squad!

SC-Sen: Introducing Michael Cone

2008-01-15T19:05:00.000-05:00

Last May, I suggested that the 2006 Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor, Robert Barber Jr., would be an ideal candidate to challenge Lindsey Graham. In addition to highlighting Barber's strengths, I noted Graham's numerous weaknesses. While a Barber candidacy never materialized, Graham's weaknesses still very much apply.

Graham supports a historically unpopular president a whopping 91% of the time. He has an atrocious record when it comes to supporting working families and veterans. He has even gone soft on issues like prohibiting torture and accountability in Iraq. And it doesn't help Graham any that in a socially conservative state like South Carolina, rumors about his sexual orientation continue to follow him.

Graham has found himself in the doghouse with many South Carolinians for pushing immigration reform legislation that numerous Palmetto State Republicans likened to amnesty, so much so that he was booed at his own Party's state convention and that he has been dubbed by conservative commentators "Lindsey Grahamnesty." One South Carolina county Republican committee even voted to censure Graham.

This discontent with Graham, particularly among his base, has led not only to anti-Graham websites like DumpLindsey.org, Dump Lindsey Graham, Defeat Lindsey Graham, and Toast Graham, but also to significant 2008 Senate primary opposition. Among Graham's growing number of primary opponents are former Myrtle Beach Mayor Mark McBride and Republican National Committee member Buddy Witherspoon. State Representative Jeff Duncan and former Congressman Tommy Hartnett are also publicly considering primary challenges.

So Lindsey Graham will have to hustle and spend a chunk of his $4 million+ bankroll just to emerge from his primary and win re-nomination. And then he'll have to focus on his Democratic opponent.

South Carolina might be a red state, and Democrats might not have a deep bench. But that doesn't mean we should count it out just yet. We could be surprised by the 38-year-old attorney Michael Cone. So who is he? According to his professional biography:

Michael was graduated from The Citadel in May of 1991 and immediately commissioned an Ensign in the United States Navy.

After serving in the Navy in San Diego, California, Michael returned to South Carolina and entered law school in 1997. He was graduated from the University of South Carolina School of Law in May of 2000 and served as law clerk to the Honorable Paul E. Short, Jr. until August of 2001.

From August 2001 until January 2006, Michael was an associate with Simpson & Dong, LLC where he practiced civil litigation. While with Simpson & Dong, Michael participated in the prosecution of several class action lawsuits that resulted in beneficial recoveries for South Carolina consumers. He also participated in several appellate cases, including at the Supreme Court of the United States.

Michael is admitted to the South Carolina Bar, the U. S. District Court for South Carolina, and the U. S. Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals. He is a member of the Charleston County Bar Association, the American Bar Association, the Association of Trial Lawyers of America, and the National Association of Consumer Advocates. Michael has achieved Advocate status in ATLA's Achievement Recognition Program. Michael attends the Church of the Holy Communion (an Anglo-Catholic parish of the Episcopal Church of the U.S.A.) is a lifetime member of the Citadel Alumni Association, and is a member of the Exchange Club of Charleston.

His military background offers instant credibility on related matters like Iraq and terrorism, while his legal contacts offer a ready-made fundraising base. What does Cone have to say about South Carolina's status as a red state?

“I do not buy into this idea that this is a republican state," Cone explained. "This is a very independent state. We have been solidly republican for awhile, but I don’t think that means people are closed to new ideas or closed to the Democratic Party.”

The system, Cone feels, is failing its people, and that’s why he says if elected, he’ll represent the people.

“I would represent them and their opinions rather than what I think is best for them.

I would actually listen to them which I find that Senator Graham doesn’t always do,” he added.

And he's focusing on issues that will resonate with South Carolina voters:

Cone says he's against illegal immigration and wants to see some major public works projects aimed at reducing America's dependence on foreign oil.

Discontent with Lindsey Graham has never been higher. A recent poll by InsiderAdvantage found that his approval rating has sunk to a beleaguered 31% and that his disapproval rating among Republicans has grown to a relatively massive 46%. Graham will have his hands full with a primary featuring numerous opponents, all taking shots at him. And then, should he win re-nomination, he will likely have to face a dynamic young lawyer with a military background and a message that could resonate deeply with disaffected voters. Lindsey Graham is very much on the hot seat, and Michael Cone could prove to be a lot more than just a token name on the Democratic line on the ballot. Keep an eye on this race.

Tuesday Afternoon Quick Hits

2008-01-15T15:22:00.000-05:00

On the Expand the Map! ActBlue page, Andrew Rice has crossed $3,000, Larry LaRocco has crossed $1,000, and Tom Allen has crossed $500. The last threshold to get through is putting Rick Noriega over $1,000. We're only $88 away! Please chip in $10 if you can.

Mississippi: Republican Gov. Haley Barbour indicates that he has every intention of appealing the circuit court's decision to mandate the special election to replace Trent Lott within 90 days (emphasis added by me):

"When I set the special U.S. Senate election for November 4, 2008, I felt very strongly that it was the legal and appropriate action under the U.S. and Mississippi Constitutions and state law," Barbour said in a statement Monday. "Nothing in this decision by the Hinds County Circuit Court changes that belief. As I have said all along, the final decision in this case will be made by the Mississippi Supreme Court, and I look forward to that decision."

Word is that the Mississippi Supreme Court (which is an elected body) is stacked with Barbour cronies. (If Wikipedia's coloration is accurate, it consists of seven Republicans and two Democrats.) I know it's unbelievable that Republicans sitting on a Supreme Court would ever work to screw over Democrats (and, really, all voters) looking for a fair electoral process, but it happens. Stay tuned for developments.

New Hampshire: Popular former Governor Jeanne Shaheen is taking a pretty common sense stand on energy policy:

Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen is calling on Washington lawmakers to roll back subsidies for oil and gas companies and invest in renewable energy.

And what is John Sununu's record? Very much against renewable energy and very much in the corner of Big Oil.

Oregon: Speaker Jeff Merkley's $619,000 Q4 take was not just a solid haul, but it was also record-breaking. And it was not just record-breaking, but it was competitive with Gordon Smith's $900,000 Q4 take. Of course, Smith has a cash-on-hand bankroll of over $4 million, but as long as Merkley (or whoever the eventual Democratic nominee is) can raise competitively with Smith, the DSCC and its massive fundraising advantage over the NRSC will be there to buttress the Democrat against Smith.

Enormous Monday Night Round-Up

2008-01-14T21:22:00.000-05:00

Mississippi: A Hinds County Circuit judge invalidated Republican Gov. Haley Barbour's gambit at waiting until November to hold the special election following the resignation of Trent Lott. The judge declared that the special election must occur within 90 days of December 20, 2007, or by March 19, 2008. So much for Barbour's attempt to undercut the law and give fellow Republican Roger Wicker close to a full year of faux-incumbency. While being the appropriate course of action, it has the added benefit of enhancing Democratic prospects at the seat, in the person of either former Governor Ronnie Musgrove or former Congressman Ronnie Shows.

Oregon: Speaker Jeff Merkley released his Q4-2007 fundraising take, $619,000, with over half a million dollars on hand. The sum roughly triples the Q4 take of primary opponent Steve Novick, who released his first television ad. Also, four primary debates have been confirmed: January 22 and March 7, to which all Democratic primary candidates are invited; and April 5 (sponsored by the League of Women Voters) and April 15 (sponosred by KGW and The Oregonian), for which the hosts will determine who to invite. The primary is on May 20.

Maine: Stuart W. Bowen Jr. is the special inspector general for Iraq reconstruction. His office is under investigation by "the FBI and three other entities for waste and mismanagement." So, of course, he's gallivanting around Maine with Susan Collins, whose record on Iraq oversight is absolutely atrocious and well beyond shameful. Bowen and Collins are quite possibly two of the most responsible people in government for all of the waste, mismanagement, war profiteering, and lack of oversight in Iraq, so they should naturally hang out together. Be sure to check out this powerful YouTube video on the topic.

Oklahoma: Compare Andrew Rice's story with Jim Inhofe's record. First, Rice's story, from an e-mail to supporters:

Our 11-month old son Parker was hospitalized here in Oklahoma City for three days last November with pneumonia. He received excellent care and, like most youngsters his age, he has rebounded very quickly from what was a scary time for all of us. But, that is only half the story.

One month later we learned that our health insurance company was refusing to pay the $10,000 hospital bill because they said our baby Parker had a "pre-existing condition." I'm not kidding. When we argued that baseless reason away, they changed their excuse to "improper notification" by the treating physician, and said it was not a big deal because the hospital would just "write it off." They don't think it is a "big deal" to avoid providing the coverage we pay them for every month, and instead have the Oklahoma taxpayer foot the bill. That tells you something about how they see the world.

Not until they learned that Apple is a physician did the insurance company bureaucrats finally admit they had made a mistake and agreed to pay the legitimate claim.

An 11-month-old with a "pre-existing condition." The insurance companies can be truly unbelievable. And what is Jim Inhofe's record on health care?

James Inhofe on Health Care
Voted NO on adding 2 to 4 million children to SCHIP eligibility. (Nov 2007)
Voted NO on requiring negotiated Rx prices for Medicare part D. (Apr 2007)
Voted YES on limiting medical liability lawsuits to $250,000. (May 2006)
Voted NO on expanding enrollment period for Medicare Part D. (Feb 2006)
Voted NO on increasing Medicaid rebate for producing generics. (Nov 2005)
Voted NO on negotiating bulk purchases for Medicare prescription drug. (Mar 2005)
Voted YES on allowing reimportation of Rx drugs from Canada. (Jul 2002)
Voted NO on allowing patients to sue HMOs & collect punitive damages. (Jun 2001)
Voted YES on funding GOP version of Medicare prescription drug benefit. (Apr 2001)
Voted NO on including prescription drugs under Medicare. (Jun 2000)
Voted YES on limiting self-employment health deduction. (Jul 1999)
Voted NO on increasing tobacco restrictions. (Jun 1998)
Voted YES on Medicare means-testing. (Jun 1997)
Voted NO on blocking medical savings acounts. (Apr 1996)
Rated 0% by APHA, indicating a anti-public health voting record. (Dec 2003)

Overall, Inhofe has one of the most hideous records in the history of the U.S. Senate when it comes to health care. Seriously, who do you trust to look out for families more? Rice or Inhofe?

Minnesota: More evidence that Norm Coleman is a disingenuous opportunist. Party unity score by year: 2003 92%, 2004 91%, 2005 77%, 2006 77%, 2007 64%. The closer Coleman gets to his election year, the more he tries to distance himself from his Republican Party affiliation. Meanwhile, Al Franken has released his first two TV ads, "Mrs. Molin" and "I'm Running." "Mrs. Molin" is one of the most clever introductory spots I've seen in a while.

North Carolina: Businessman Jim Neal's 2008 Senate campaign had a Q4-2007 take of $210,000, less than 40% of State Senator Kay Hagan's Q4 take of $561,000. Elizabeth Dole is reporting a Q4 take of about $1.1 million.

Tennessee: While attorney Kevin Doherty continues to ponder a 2008 Senate bid, activist Chris Lugo, formerly of the Green Party and described by TennViews as "the Dennis Kucinich of Tennessee politics," is entering the race as a Democrat.

Massachusetts: I would love it if Jim Ogonowski ran for Senate in Massachusetts. He has just enough cachet from his Congressional defeat to possibly tempt the NRSC into dropping a few bucks into the Bay State.

About four out of every five Americans want to change course from the George W. Bush path. I don't think that bodes well for Republicans running for office in 2008.

Sunday Quick Hits

2008-01-13T13:20:00.000-05:00

The Expand the Map! ActBlue page still needs $73 for Larry LaRocco and $88 for Rick Noriega to get both over the $500 target. Please contribute a few bucks toward that if you can!

Tennessee: Yesterday, I reported that Nashville attorney Kevin Doherty told me that he hopes to have a decision on a 2008 Senate bid "within a week or two." In what direction is he leaning? Well, I don't think most Nashville attorneys pen op-eds about international diplomacy with Pakistan, if that is any indication.

Minnesota: How many buzzwords, cliches, and falsehoods can Norm Coleman cram into one interview? The answer: quite a lot.

Massachusetts: Failed Congressional candidate Jim Ogonowski is considering joining the 2008 Republican Senate primary for the chance to take on Senator John Kerry. Republican Jeff Beatty is already running. Ogonowski lost 51-45 three months ago in a special election against a candidate that many accounts suggested ran a very mediocre campaign in one of Massachusetts' more conservative districts. How Ogonowski thinks he could fare better statewide against the Kerry machine, your guess is as good as mine.

Big Saturday Round-Up

2008-01-12T15:32:00.000-05:00

Tennessee: The Volunteer State's filing deadline is April 3, and Nashville attorney Kevin Doherty is currently the only Democrat publicly considering a 2008 Senate challenge to Republican incumbent Lamar Alexander. I contacted Mr. Doherty to inquire about his decision-making timeframe, and he personally informed me yesterday:

I hope to have a decision within a week or two.

So we should know by the end of the month. For more information on Doherty's interesting background (including succeeding now-Governor of New York Eliot Spitzer as student body President of Princeton University), check out this profile by WKRN-2 Nashville's political blog VolunteerVoters.com.

Kentucky: Immediately after Mitch McConnell's own partisan pollster tried to convince us that McConnell's approval is over sixty percent, the non-partisan Survey USA reminds us that Mitch's approval is under fifty percent. Meanwhile, McConnell dishonestly presents himself as an environmental champion because he secured some pork dollars for a few Kentucky parks, while conveniently overlooking his 0% rating from the League of Conservation Voters, his fight to block renewable fuels standards, and his opposition against steps to address global warming, as well as numerous other blemishes on his hideous record.

South Carolina: Another prominent, credible South Carolina Republican is stepping forward to challenge Lindsey Graham in the 2008 Republican Senate primary. Former Myrtle Beach Mayor Mark McBride, who ran for Senate in 2004 to succeed Senator Ernest Hollings, will of course focus on immigration, among other issues.

North Carolina: State Senator Kay Hagan raised over half a million dollars, $560,000 to be exact, in just her first two months as a candidate looking to oust Elizabeth Dole in 2008.

Mississippi: This news is not about the special election for the Senate seat from which Trent Lott resigned! There will be Democratic opposition to Thad Cochran in 2008: former state Representative Erik Fleming and "perennial candidate" Shawn O'Hara. While I consider Cochran among the safest Republican incumbents, you never know what can happen, so it's important to have somebody running on the Democratic side. Fleming, who garnered 35% of the vote in his 2006 Senate challenge to Trent Lott, has a preliminary website up.

Virginia: Republican state delegate Bob Marshall, Jim Gilmore's 2008 Senate primary opponent, has a thorough campaign website up and running. (HT: RK)

Maine: While Maine has made it clear as a state that it opposes Real ID, and Susan Collins inexplicably continues to support the policy, Tom Allen has demonstrated actual leadership in working to repeal Real ID.

Oklahoma: Andrew Rice continues to promote responsible tax-cutting legislation and get terrific press in his campaign to oust Jim "In Denial" Inhofe.

Nebraska: Scott Kleeb continues to sound more and more like a 2008 Senate candidate.

George W. Bush is basically calling every Republican running for President who declares themselves some kind of "agent of change" a disingenuous liar.

Friday Items

2008-01-11T13:22:00.000-05:00

How desperate is the NRSC for fundraising dollars? They're scalping Hannah Montana tickets:

Disney's Hannah Montana strutted through Washington last week, and it wasn't just the show's teen pop sensation Miley Cyrus who hit pay dirt. So did the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the group that funds GOP Senate candidates. A few weeks before the hottest show of the year arrived, the committee alerted donors that it had some choice seats. The catch: Winners had to raise or pony up $10,000. "I love my daughter, but," jokes one donor. A committee spokesperson says the seats were great, and the final take was in the ballpark of $100,000. "NRSC hearts Hannah Montana!"

I didn't realize John Ensign was such a big Hannah Montana fan.

Arkansas: The AR-GOP Chairman concedes that Republicans likely won't have an opponent for Senator Mark Pryor. Even the Green Party has a Senate challenger; but the Arkansas Republican Party, fresh off of a terrible 2006 cycle for them, has nobody.

Kansas: Businessman and 2008 Democratic Senate candidate Greg Orman has his campaign website up and running, and it's an impressively thorough start. As a reminder, from a July post, here's my five reasons a Democrat can win the Senate seat in Kansas.

South Dakota: Senator Tim Johnson took in more than $700,000 in Q4, bringing his cash-on-hand to $2.4 million, a pretty massive figure for the Mount Rushmore State.

Maine: This video is outstanding and demonstrates whose interests Susan Collins really represents (HT: TMB):

Kentucky: The non-partisan Survey USA has gauged Mitch McConnell's approval in recent months as ranging from 44% to 51%. And, in September, the non-partisan Lexington Herald-Leader put McConnell's approve-disapprove at a lousy 47-44. Yet McConnell's own pollster laughably insists that McConnell's approval is over sixty percent. (And you thought the NRSC scalping Hannah Montana tickets was funny!)

In other Kentucky news, word is that businessman Greg Fischer will join Lieutenant Colonel Andrew Horne in a 2008 Democratic Senate primary, and that Fischer will announce next week. Assuming that the candidates run a positive primary campaign focused on criticizing McConnell's record, a primary should be very helpful in raising their profiles statewide. Also, a terrific new DSCC piece highlights Mitch McConnell's cozy relationship with Big Oil.

Texas: Rick Noriega not only has a clear vision of how he will defeat John Cornyn and improve the lives of Texans, but he also has a sense of humor:

Democratic Senate candidate Rick Noriega, warning that two aides to Republican Sen. John Cornyn were lurking in the audience, attacked Cornyn Thursday for a series of votes that he said hurt Texans. ...

"I hope by the end of my presentation you'll agree to vote for me as well," Noriega said to the Cornyn employees, to laughs and applause.

I wonder if the Cornyn employees were campaign staffers or taxpayer-funded district office staffers.

New Mexico: With his Presidential bid behind him, Governor Bill Richardson is committed to working toward a victory for Congressman Tom Udall in the 2008 Senate race.

New Jersey: Republican Senate candidate Murray Sabrin has earned the endorsement of presidential candidate Ron Paul.

Nebraska: Here's more fuel for speculation about a Scott Kleeb 2008 Senate bid.

Democrats in Michigan: Vote for Mitt!

Thursday Tidbits

2008-01-10T13:45:00.000-05:00

Colorado: Progress Now has put up a pretty effective web ad as well as a website, ShiftySchaffer.com, highlighting some of Bob Schaffer's lies while in office. Speaking of big liars, January 31 is Bob Schaffer ♥ George W. Bush Day.

Alaska: Ted Stevens wants to see cute baby polar bear cubs die. Well, that may be a tad harsh of a characterization... but only a tad.

Kentucky: Mitch McConnell not only obstructs the Senate at a historic pace, but now he's trying to shut down the Federal Election Commission out of spite. Also, McConnell has a Mission Accomplished moment. In short, Mitch really sucks.

North Carolina: According to Public Policy Polling's numbers on the 2008 Democratic Senate primary, the gap is increasing between State Senator Kay Hagan and the rest of the pack. However, the majority are still undecided.

Minnesota: Democratic Senate candidate Mike Ciresi starts his television advertising buy today.

Idaho: Larry LaRocco's Q4 take was $165,000, and his cash-on-hand at the end of 2007 stands at $172,000, respectable numbers for an Idaho non-incumbent. LaRocco has increased his fundraising every quarter since entering the race.

Wednesday Night Items

2008-01-09T22:09:00.000-05:00

On the Expand the Map! ActBlue page, we're still desperately yearning for $73 more for Larry LaRocco and $88 more for Rick Noriega. Please, please, please, please, please!

New Hampshire: With turnout for the Democratic primary in New Hampshire way up and turnout for the Republican primary down, John Sununu should be very worried. 2006 was not an aberration - New Hampshire really is becoming Blue Hampshire.

Montana: Disgraced Republican Michael Lange will have some company in the 2008 Republican Senate primary courtesy of engineer Kirk Bushman.

Maine: Oy. An independent candidate for Senate, Laurie Dobson, is joining the 2008 race; and she's making opposition to the Iraq War the cornerstone of her campaign. Um, Laurie, Democratic Congressman Tom Allen has an unblemished record in opposition to the Iraq War and in support of bring our troops home safely and responsibly. I can't fathom what Dobson hopes to accomplish.

Oregon: Speaker Jeff Merkley nutshells it:

"...we have a U.S. senator who votes 90 percent-plus time with Bush and Cheney. And he is in a state that has the lowest opinion of Bush and Cheney of any state in the nation," Merkley told a group of 30 people who gathered at Chi’s Garden Restaurant in Roseburg. "He is dramatically out of synch with this state on the war on Iraq, on health care, on energy policy, on education, on creating family wage jobs."

Check out the Center for Public Integrity's 2008 edition of The Buying of the President, the Center's "quadrennial investigation of how money shapes presidential campaigns." Some fascinating reading.

Wednesday Quick Hits

2008-01-09T11:58:00.000-05:00

Texas: John Cornyn's spokesman confirms that Cornyn will debate his 2008 Republican Senate primary opponent, Larry Kilgore. I can't wait for those YouTube highlights!

Idaho: Larry Craig is trying yet another line of defense to clear his name following his "bathroom sex sting" arrest. I, for one, would very much like to know if Craig's new BFF Jim Risch supports Craig's efforts, and I hope the Idaho media will inquire.

New Mexico: The 2008 Republican Senate primary between GOP Congresscritters Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce will see a sparkplug in the mix stirring up noise as the unpredictable former state senator Tom Benavides is joining the race.

Minnesota: House party fundraisers typically get a couple dozen attendees. Al Franken's are getting over 100.

Kos channels my exact sentiments from last night:

I've been watching MSNBC because of Keith Olbermann [and, for the Guru, Norah O'Donnell]. But I'm done. Chris Matthews is insufferable. Right now, Brokaw is giving him a tongue-lashing, well deserved. But that's it. I'm watching CNN the rest of the way unless MSNBC muzzles that blowhard.

Matthews was beyond obnoxious to watch last night.

Tuesday Rundown

2008-01-08T13:15:00.000-05:00

Thanks to your generosity on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page, Tom Allen has crossed the $500 target and Andrew Rice has crossed the $3,000 target! Meanwhile, Larry LaRocco is only $73 away and Rick Noriega is only $88 away from the $1,000 target. Can we get Larry and Rick over the $1,000 hump? Again, thank you so much!

Minnesota: For the third fundraising quarter in a row, Al Franken outraised Norm Coleman, as Franken's $1.9 million Q4 take topped Coleman's $1.7 million. Nevertheless, Coleman still enjoys a cash-on-hand advantage of $6 million compared to Franken's $3.1 million. But if Franken keeps outraising Coleman, that cash-on-hand gap should narrow, just as the gap in the polls have.

Nebraska: I dare you to watch Mike Johanns introductory video without falling asleep. I dare you. In fact, I dare Mike Johanns to watch it without falling asleep.

Maine: The Kennebec Journal's retired editor is awfully mad about millions of dollars of waste and mismanagement in Iraq, but he doesn't blame Susan Collins. Maybe he should.

Mississippi: Cotton Mouth offers a thorough round-up of press from Ronnie Musgrove 2008 Senate campaign kick-off tour.

Kentucky: Lieutenant Colonel Andrew Horne is hustling around Kentucky campaigning for Senate. Kentucky's filing deadline is three weeks from today. Will Charlie Owen or Greg Fischer join Lt. Col. Horne? Given how promising Horne's candidacy is, it'd suit me just fine if they got behind him.

Virginia: The latest Rasmussen Reports poll on the 2008 Senate race sees popular former Governor Mark Warner beating Republican Jim Gilmore by 15 points, with roughly identical numbers to Rasmussen's findings from October.

Texas: Burnt Orange Report wonders when John Cornyn will debate his 2008 Republican Senate primary opponent, Larry Kilgore (who did score over 7% of the vote in the 2006 Republican gubernatorial primary). Also, according to their website, the Constitution Party Texas will field a 2008 Senate candidate, Alfred Adask. (Texas' filing deadline was January 2.)

Monday Night Quick Hits

2008-01-07T22:07:00.000-05:00

Mississippi: Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove has his Senate campaign website up and running. Take a read to his announcement speech. There are two kinds of conservative Democrats: the Democrat-bashing, Fox News-loving "LieberDem," and the respectfully conservative, non-Party-bashing, Ben Nelson-style Democrat. I think Musgrove could prove to be the latter. While I expect that I'll be unhappy with some votes that a Senator Musgrove takes, he's still a vote for Democratic leadership, he's still a vote for cloture (hopefully) on Republican attempts at obstruction, and he's still far better than a Senator Wicker.

Louisiana: Compare Senator Mary Landrieu's Q4 take with Treasurer John N. Kennedy's:

Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., continues to pile on her war chest for her re-election bid this fall. Her campaign is expected to report raising $1.1 million in the final quarter of 2007 leaving her with about $4 million on hand, about twice what she had at this point in her last race. Republican state Treasurer John Kennedy, who announced in November he would run against Landrieu, raised about $500,000 for the final quarter of 2007 and has about $450,000 in the bank, a campaign official said.

Keep in mind, Kennedy entered the race in late November, so he didn't have a complete fundraising quarter. That said, he probably hit up a lot of low-hanging fruit in December. Q1 of 2008 will be very telling. (HT: SSP)

Nebraska: Apparently, Republican quitter Mike Johanns is ducking out of debates with his 2008 Republican Senate primary opponent, businessman Pat Flynn. Sounds cowardly to me. In other news, some are taking a high profile speaking engagement by Scott Kleeb as a signal that he may be leaning toward a Senate bid.

Oklahoma: State Senator Andrew Rice gave a terrific interview with Grist, primarily discussing how innovative energy and environmental policies (the kind Jim Inhofe would oppose at the top of his anachronistic lungs) can contribute to Oklahoma's economy and national security.

Idaho: The 2008 Senate Republican primary is getting a little more crowded as Republican businessman Richard Phenneger will join the fray, already including Iraq veteran Scott Syme, rancher Rex Rammell, Lt. Gov. Jim Risch, and former Caldwell city councilman Kent Marmon. From Phenneger's rhetoric, he will make ethics a focal point of his campaign, which shouldn't bode well for the Larry Craig-Jim Risch subset of the Idaho GOP.

Monday Catch-Up

2008-01-07T12:55:00.000-05:00

Alaska: Ted Stevens' own pollster is conceding Stevens' vulnerability, and Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich isn't shy about piling on:

"He's more vulnerable than he has been before," conceded Anchorage pollster and political consultant Dave Dittman, who is working for the Stevens campaign.

Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich predicts both Stevens and Alaska Congressman Don Young will be gone after 2008.

"The delegation for the first time in decades will have serious competition for those seats," said Begich, 45, who is contemplating a run as a Democrat against the 84-year-old Stevens. "And I do believe those seats will change over." ...

Begich said people, at times lifelong Republicans, come up to him every day and urge him to run. Some don't like Stevens but many think it is just time for a new generation, he said. That's liable to be a theme in any Begich campaign for the Senate.

As kos has suggested, if Begich did not plan on running, he would let people know by the end of 2007, so that others might mount campaigns. Begich's silence is an indication that he is biding his time and may announce in the Spring. And with poll numbers looking so promising so early, Begich can afford to bide his time while the specter of Stevens' corruption looms large. (HT: Cliff Schecter)

Mississippi: Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove is touring the state today as he announces his 2008 Senate bid, and he isn't shy about criticizing GOP Senate-appointee Roger Wicker's record:

He criticized Wicker’s party-line voting record, saying:

• Wicker voted eight times to raise the national debt and helped take the federal budget from a surplus to a $200 million deficit.

• Wicker voted five times against toughening border security and opposed tougher penalties for businesses that hire illegal aliens.

• Wicker voted 10 times against raising the minimum wage and eight times against extending unemployment benefits to people who had lost their jobs.

“The American dream has hit a ceiling,” he insisted as he continued to hammer concerns for the economy.

He also criticized Wicker for supporting tax incentives for companies that took their jobs overseas and for pork barrel projects, including the so-called “$400 million bridge to nowhere” in Alaska.

Meanwhile, with former Congressman Ronnie Shows also entering the race, and with the special election taking the form of a "Louisiana-style jungle election," many wonder if both Musgrove and Shows being in the race will help Democrats by increasing turnout and forcing a run-off between Wicker and the stronger Democratic candidate, or if they will hurt each other and help Wicker avoid a run-off. Stay tuned as events unfold!

Maine: Maine Owl offers a terrific analysis highlighting the hypocrisy of Susan Collins grandstanding against issues of corruption in the United Nations' Oil-for-Food program in Iraq while doing absolutely nothing in her role as Chair of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affair Committee to offer any oversight against the Bush Administration and its corporate cronies relating to Iraq.

Virginia: Republican Jim Gilmore will definitely have primary opposition in the 2008 Senate race in the person of conservative state delegate Bob Marshall.

Minnesota: Al Franken just announced via press release that his Q4 fundraising take for 2007 will hit about $1.88 million, bringing his cash-on-hand to over $3 million. You may recall that Franken's impress fundraising prowess has made Norm Coleman look bad in 2007. Also, MN Blue offers a thorough round-up of the 2008 Minnesota Senate race so far. An excellent primer, especially on Norm Coleman's patented Norm-speak.

Oregon: Another reason Speaker Jeff Merkley could thump Gordon Smith? Voters will respect the fact that Merkley won't let running for Senate interfere with his execution of his current duties as Speaker of the Oregon state House.

Nebraska: Republican quitter Mike Johanns raised $1.5 million for his 2008 Senate race, about 40% of which came from his fundraiser with George W. Bush. Johanns has $1 million in cash-on-hand.

Saturday Tidbits

2008-01-05T15:23:00.000-05:00

Mississippi: Democratic former Governor Ronnie Musgrove is in the 2008 Senate race for the seat from which Trent Lott resigned. He will apparently hold a series of announcement events on Monday.

This is shaping up to be Musgrove vs. Roger Wicker. One poll saw Wicker leading Musgrove 47-39 and another poll saw Musgrove leading Wicker 48-34. In other words, this will be a close, competitive race. Mississippi blogger Will Bardwell highlights five issues that can beat Wicker: SCHIP, Big Oil, Iraq, the minimum wage, and college loans. I'd add that Wicker's ethical questions surrounding his cozy relationship with the Aurora Corporation could be potent, as well. Fun fact: "Musgrove and Wicker are longtime friends and shared an apartment in Jackson when they served together in the state Senate."

But wait! A single Associated Press report is just breaking that Democratic former Congressman Ronnie Shows will also run for the Senate seat! I'll keep an eye out for more stories. If true, expect polling in the coming weeks to determine which Democratic Ronnie, Musgrove or Shows, matches up more strongly against Wicker.

Louisiana: It looks like GOP Rep. Richard Baker is very likely to retire from the House at the end of this term to head the hedge-fund industry's trade association. Should this occur, he would join fellow Louisiana House Republican Jim McCrery in retirement. Couple this with Bobby Jindal's departure from the House to the Governor's office, and there are two clear reasons why this helps Senator Mary Landrieu's 2008 Senate re-election bid. First, it simply means more work to do for the LA-GOP and more races that they thought they could take for granted that make now see competition and require a division of limited resources (resources that could have been solely focused on the Senate race). Second, with all the impending House rookies coming from Louisiana this November, as SSP's James notes, "that might even help Sen. Mary Landrieu by making her seniority seem all the more crucial."

Oregon: Following yesterday's announcement that the electrical workers' union has backed Speaker Jeff Merkley candidacy for Senate in 2008, the Oregon chapter of the American Federation of Teachers has followed suit. They also join such other prominent unions as the Oregon AFL-CIO and Oregon AFSCME Council 75 in backing Merkley.

Kudos to the New Hampshire Republican Party for not accepting Fox News as its Propagandist-in-Chief.

Friday Rundown

2008-01-04T14:03:00.000-05:00

On the Expand the Map! ActBlue page, Tom Allen remains only $12, Larry LaRocco only $97, Rick Noriega only $112 from their next targets. Please chip in if you can! (C'mon, who's got $13 for Tom Allen to break the $500 barrier?)

Louisiana: Senator Mary Landrieu continues to look very strong for re-election, from a press release:

U.S. Senator Mary L. Landrieu, D-La., will kick off the New Year with more than $4 million in the bank for her reelection effort -- double the net cash-on-hand she reported at this point in her last race. When official reports are filed later this month, she expects to report more than $1.1 million in fundraising for the last three months of 2007 alone.

Senator Landrieu also scored the endorsement of prominent Louisiana Republicans, including St. Tammany Parish President Kevin Davis, Lafourche Parish President Charlotte Randolph, and Plaquemines Parish Sheriff Jiff Hingle.

Oregon: Ugh. After running a story on primary debate negotiations, PolitickerOR changed their story, and eliminated the section from which I quoted in yesterday's post. Always very infuriating. I will not use that outlet as a source in the future. In other news, Speaker Jeff Merkley has scored yet another labor endorsement, the Association of Electrical Workers.

Kentucky: Mitch McConnell reported a fourth quarter take of $1.7 million, bringing his end-of-2007 cash-on-hand to $7.3 million.

Maine: A new year, but the same old Susan Collins. She continues to tow the George W. Bush line of endless war in Iraq.

Minnesota: A good omen.

Oklahoma: Iowa isn't the only state with enthused Democrats:

Thursday's gathering in Tulsa wasn't exactly a caucus, but it did generate a certain amount of excitement as a sort of Democratic pep rally.

"We would be remiss if we started the new year without a resolution that this will be the last year of Jim Inhofe in the U.S. Senate," [Tulsa County Chairwoman Elaine] Dodd told the crowd to a round of cheers.

State Sen. Andrew Rice, to date Inhofe's only Democratic challenger, was given a standing ovation.

"We're really early in this campaign, but people are acting like it's October," Rice said. "They're asking, 'Where is my yard sign?'"

Let's keep that enthusiasm up!

Georgia: Has there ever been a Senator more extraneous than Saxby Chambliss?

While my Senate predictions are pretty spot-on, my predictions on the Iowa caucus were, charitably speaking, way off. There's a reason I don't run a blog called The Iowa Caucus Guru. Congratulations to Senator Obama for his victory (and for what I think is the best speech he has ever given). And much respect to Senators Biden and Dodd (the next Senate Majority Leader? hmmmm?), who are ending their Presidential campaigns, but have a great deal to continue offering in the Senate. And the record-shattering Democratic turnout should stand as a signal of not only enthused Democrats but also independents looking to vote Democratic.

Thursday Items

2008-01-03T13:53:00.000-05:00

Distance from their next targets on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page: Tom Allen only $12, Larry LaRocco only $97, Rick Noriega only $112. Please contribute a little if you can! Thanks!!!

Oregon: Steve Novick's Senate campaign is reporting that it took in about $210,000 in Q4. It will be interesting to compare that figure to Speaker Jeff Merkley's take. Meanwhile, Democratic primary debate negotiations are moving along at an awkward pace:

At issue: while the Merkley team wants debates with all candidates included, the Novick camp wants just the two Democratic frontrunners to square off.

Given that Novick has been working hard to portray himself as the outsider, insurgent campaign, it definitely rubs me the wrong way that his camp is trying to keep other, lesser-known candidates out of at least the early debates, keeping them from gaining exposure. Kudos to Merkley's move for inclusion.

Idaho: Democrat Larry LaRocco highlights how paranoid and generally freaked out Republican Jim Risch sounds in his fundraising appeal. LaRocco also notes that two-thirds of his contributors are from Idaho.

New Mexico: Joe Monahan gives us a heads up that January 23 is Steve Pearces loves Dick Cheney Day. He also reminds us that Cheney did a fundraiser for Heather Wilson back in November, bringing in about $110,000.

Texas: The Dallas News laughably questions if the campaign to oust John Cornyn is "Mission Impossible," particularly given Cornyn's allegiance to George W. Bush. Need we remind the Dallas News that Bush's approve-disapprove in Texas, according to a June Survey USA poll (the last month SUSA polled in Texas**), was gauged at a lousy 41-57, and that Cornyn's approve-disapprove was clocked at an abysmal 42-43, making Cornyn one of the least popular members of the Senate. (**Count me as a believer in the conspiracy theory that Cornyn's camp got the local media outlets sponsoring the SUSA polls in Texas to stop, given that it revealed Cornyn's awful numbers. Texas mysteriously stopped having month-to-month tracking in June.)

This is the most powerful political ad I've seen in a long time:

Wednesday Evening Quick Hits

2008-01-02T18:28:00.000-05:00

Idaho: Larry Craig is taking Republican Jim Risch by the hand and showing him around Capitol Hill:

Meanwhile, it appears Craig is serious - this time - about retiring when his term ends in January 2009. He ushered Idaho Lt. Gov. James E. Risch (R) around the Capitol this week, introducing him as "the next senator from Idaho."

I guess if Risch wants to know where all the roomiest bathrooms are, Craig would be the guy to show him.

Meanwhile, Iraq & Afghanistan veteran Scott Syme has officially joined Risch and rancher Rex Rammell in the 2008 Republican Senate primary.

Mississippi: The legal battle over the scheduling of the special election to succeed Trent Lott is officially underway.

Just for fun, I'll throw a couple predictions out there for tomorrow's Iowa caucuses. For the Republicans, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee will finish within three points of one another, though I won't say who will finish first and who second; but, John McCain will finish a surprisingly solid third, which will help him keep pace with Romney in New Hampshire. For the Democrats, John Edwards will finish five points ahead of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. We'll know in a little over thirty hours how wildly far off the mark I am.

December Senate Approval Numbers from Survey USA

2008-01-02T14:10:00.000-05:00

SUSA is up with their December numbers.

Republicans:

Norm Coleman	12/27/07	11/20/07	10/18/07	9/25/07	8/21/07	7/24/07	11/22/06
Approve	53	53	49	46	47	43	48
Disapprove	39	40	42	45	44	48	43

Coleman continues to hover around the vulnerable zone.

Mitch McConnell	12/27/07	11/20/07	10/18/07	9/25/07	8/21/07	7/24/07	11/22/06
Approve	51	44	49	51	50	48	54
Disapprove	42	47	45	40	43	44	39

Like Coleman, McConnell floats in the circa-50% vulnerable zone.

Pat Roberts	12/27/07	11/20/07	10/18/07	9/25/07	8/21/07	7/24/07	11/22/06
Approve	56	51	55	57	54	52	51
Disapprove	32	38	36	32	33	34	36

Roberts continues to tease us, dancing between low-50s vulnerability and mid-to-high-50s security.

Jeff Sessions	12/27/07	11/20/07	10/18/07	9/25/07	8/21/07	7/24/07	11/22/06
Approve	56	60	54	56	59	58	58
Disapprove	34	30	37	34	33	33	32

Sessions keeps on keepin' on.

Gordon Smith	12/27/07	11/20/07	10/18/07	9/25/07	8/21/07	7/24/07	11/22/06
Approve	50	52	49	48	46	48	54
Disapprove	38	38	42	42	44	43	37

Like Coleman and McConnell, Smith's weak approvals continue to invite the big target sign.

Democrats:

Tom Harkin	12/27/07	11/20/07	10/18/07	9/25/07	8/21/07	7/24/07	11/22/06
Approve	54	58	53	53	57	55	53
Disapprove	38	37	42	40	35	38	40

I'll stick with my November comment: "Harkin is looking just comfortable enough for me to say something snarky like, 'I hope Tom Latham does challenge Harkin, just to open up Latham's House seat!'"

John Kerry	12/27/07	11/20/07	10/18/07	9/25/07	8/21/07	7/24/07	11/22/06
Approve	52	51	54	52	47	52	48
Disapprove	43	43	41	42	45	42	50

Again, ditto November: "C'mon, NRSC! Kerry is soooo vulnerable. Go for it!"

Wednesday Morning Quick Hits

2008-01-02T11:08:00.000-05:00

Please, please, please contribute a little if you can. Tom Allen is only $27 away, Larry LaRocco is only $112 away, and Rick Noriega is only $127 away from the next benchmark for each!

The conservative National Review's gauging of the 2008 Senate races offers no surprises, relatively favoring Republicans (for instance, the list ranks Arkansas and Alaska as identical levels of competitivity).

Kentucky: Draft Forgy gives us a two-fer. First, they spy the Lexington Herald-Leader explicitly encouraging former Republican gubernatorial nominee Larry Forgy to challenge Mitch McConnell to a 2008 Senate primary. Second, they see the Louisville Courier-Journal taking McConnell to task for his hypocrisy on fiscal conservatism (and highlighting conservative think tank The Heritage Foundation, which agrees with that criticism on McConnell).

Georgia: I wonder who on Dale Cardwell's staff thought this stunt up.

Happy New Year!

2008-01-01T13:07:00.000-05:00

I hope you all had a fun and safe New Year's Eve. Your responses on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page were phenomenal! Thank you SO much! Currently, Larry LaRocco and Rick Noriega are only $112 and $127 short of the $1,000 mark, respectively, and Tom Allen is only $27 short of $500 on the page. Also, Andrew Rice is just a hair below the $3,000 mark. Can we get these four terrific candidates to those next milestones? Replacing Larry Craig, John Cornyn, Susan Collins, and Jim Inhofe with LaRocco, Noriega, Allen and Rice means four more critically important votes for cloture to put an end to the McConnell Republicans' notoriously historic reign of obstructionism. So please contribute if you can.

Mississippi: Senate-appointee Roger Wicker has been sworn in. And now the legal battle over the timing of the special election will kick into gear.

Nebraska: Remember when the National Republican Senatorial Committee had plans to attack Bob Kerrey, if he entered the 2008 Senate race, for having lived out-of-state for a few years running a school in New York? I wonder how they feel about their big recruit, Mike Johanns, having to publicly go house hunting to return to Nebraska after living out-of-state for a few years. (Well, he was living out-of-state to serve as George W. Bush's Agriculture Secretary, you say? Yeah, and he screwed over plenty of Nebraska's farmers in that role! Some excuse.)

Oregon: Blue Oregon's Kari Chisholm offers Gordon Smith some ideas for New Year's resolutions. The Guru offers an additional one at the top of the comments.

Wyoming: The Casper Star Tribune chronicles the difficulty Democrats are having in finding an opponent for either John Barrasso or Mike Enzi. The article notes that former Gubernatorial candidate Paul Hickey, State Senator Mike Massie, and State Representative Debbie Hammons have declined entreaties to run. 2006 Democratic Senate candidate Dale Groutage was unavailable for comment, though he got 30% of the vote against Craig Thomas in his run. Also out there for consideration is two-term former Governor Mike Sullivan who lost to then-Rep. Craig Thomas in the 1994 Wyoming Senate race and was later appointed Ambassador to Ireland. The article also mentions that Republican former state Treasurer Cynthia Lummis will run for the House seat from which Barbara Cubin is retiring, meaning that Lummis won't challenge Barrasso to a primary.

Last Day of 2007 Rundown

2007-12-31T12:52:00.001-05:00

With today being the last day of 2007, it's also the last day of the fundraising quarter, so, if you can, please contribute to some terrific candidates this afternoon. Thanks so so so so much.

Mississippi: Republican Gov. Haley Barbour has appointed GOP Rep. Roger Wicker to fill the vacancy in the Senate caused by Trent Lott's resignation. Now, we should see the debate over the scheduling of the special election come to a head. What needs further highlighting now is Wicker's ethical questions, possibly trading earmarks for campaign contributions.

Louisiana: KALB-5 out of Alexandria, Louisiana, takes a look at the political scene for 2008, closing with a synopsis of the 2008 Senate race. They mention something awfully interesting toward the very end of the article (emphasis added by me):

Landrieu’s already attracted one well-known Republican opponent, state Treasurer John Kennedy, a new convert to the GOP who lost a bid for the U.S. Senate a few years ago as a Democrat. More Republican candidates are eyeing the job as well. Landrieu’s amassed a considerable campaign warchest to launch what is expected to be an expensive campaign.

More Republican candidates are considering a bid? We know that Secretary of State Jay Dardenne hasn't ruled out a bid; and we've heard rumors that Landrieu's vanquished foes Woody Jenkins (1996) and Suzanne Haik Terrell (2002) were considering another shot. But could there be more? Louisiana has one of the latest filing deadlines in the country (7/11/08), so there will be plenty of time for other Republicans to fill out the paperwork and gather the signatures. Stay tuned!

New Mexico: Joe Monahan reports on the latest monkey wrench in Republicans' plans to retain the Senate seat from which Pete Domenici is retiring in 2008:

Tom Benavides, a longtime former ABQ Dem state senator and a candidate for too many offices to list, is at it again. Tom, who must be in his 70's by now, is circulating petitions to make the ballot for the GOP US Senate race. But if he is to join US Reps Wilson and Pearce on the June primary ballot he will have to score 20% of the delegates at the March pre-primary. That is highly unlikely. But Tom will have fun until then.

I'm sure Benavides will have plenty of fun jabbing both Wilson and Pearce right up until the pre-primary.

On a personal note, as the Senate 2008 Guru completes its first full year, let me say that this has been a very rewarding, educational, and fun endeavor, if not also fairly time-consuming and even a little overwhelming at times. I'm very much looking forward to 2008. (And, if you've enjoyed reading the blog all year, the best way you can show your appreciation is by contributing via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page before the clock strikes midnight tonight! Thanks!!!)

Weekend Quick Hits Round-Up

2007-12-30T13:15:00.000-05:00

Mississippi: The rumor mill is offering that Republican Gov. Haley Barbour has selected GOP Rep. Roger Wicker for the Senate seat from which Trent Lott resigned. We'll know for sure tomorrow.

Kentucky: Mitch McConnell is suffering from the worst approval ratings of his career and he is out of whack with a majority of his constituents on Iraq. It seems that the one thing on which he is basing his re-election campaign is the pork spending that comes to Kentucky. So what happens to the rationale for his candidacy when federal funding for Kentucky programs gets slashed? Kind of makes McConnell seem useless for Kentucky, doesn't it?

Montana: A new poll by the Billings Gazette on the 2008 Senate race sees Senator Max Baucus obliterating his likely Republican opponent, disgraced state rep. Michael Lange, by a margin of 63-25. The poll also pegged Baucus' approval rating at a whopping 67%, the same level as six months ago, demonstrating the steadiness of Baucus' approval numbers.

The Pensito Review released its list of the 2007 nominees for the "GOP Adulterers Hall of Fame." Among the nominees are Republican Senators David Vitter and Larry Craig. Good luck to both men as they seek this honor.

MS-Sen: Lott Successor to Be Named on Monday

2007-12-29T17:42:00.000-05:00

Mississippi: Republican Gov. Haley Barbour will announce his selection to succeed Trent Lott at a press conference in Jackson on Monday at 11am Central Time. Surprisingly, Chip Pickering has removed himself from consideration for the appointment. With Lt. Gov. Amy Tuck and Gulfport Mayor Brent Warr also not considering the appointment, Rep. Roger Wicker continues to appear the frontrunner for the appointment, with state Treasurer Tate Reeves the oft-mentioned second fiddle possibility.

The scheduling of the special election, though, seems destined to be determined by the courts:

Meanwhile, a battle continues between the governor and Attorney General Jim Hood about the timing of a special election for the seat.

Barbour is standing firm that it will be held Nov. 4, the date of the general election.

Hood has disputed the timing, saying according to state statute, it should be held within 90 days after an appointment is made. That would put the special election sometime in March.

Hood has said he would file a lawsuit if the two could not come to some agreement.

Hood's position is backed up by (and possibly courtesy of) two people who The Clarion-Ledger's Bill Minor calls "the state's two most experienced election law authorities," Reese Partridge and Phil Carter, assistants in Hood's office. The Clarion-Ledger also offers a theory on why GOP Gov. Barbour is pushing so hard for a November election rather than a 90-day election:

Two theories were in play last week about Barbour's choices: One, that he will start a young Republican such as Chip Pickering on a path to keep the Senate seat in GOP hands for decades. Or two - an intriguing scheme - that Barbour will name a seat-warmer who would not run for the unexpired term, so that Barbour himself could run and return to the Washington scene he loves.

Early on, Barbour said he would not appoint himself to succeed Lott, but that does not rule out him asking voters in November to elevate him to a higher level.

However, that scenario will depend on Barbour getting the court to OK his Nov. 4 special election date rather than the 90 days Hood's team will argue.

I think that that is unlikely. But you never know. I still say the smart money is on either Wicker or Reeves, with Wicker as the favorite. Currently, about half of the state has no opinion of Wicker. The first poll out there matching up Wicker against Democratic former Governor Ronnie Musgrove saw a 48-34 lead for Musgrove. However, with Musgrove enjoying much higher name ID, I would expect a much closer race, should the special election race come down to Musgrove and Wicker.

What should be of bigger concern to Republicans if Wicker is named is his burgeoning ethics problem:

Apparently, Wicker and aerospace company Aurora Flight Sciences have a questionably cozy relationship. In 2006, Aurora was Wicker's top campaign contributor; and, then in 2007, Wicker secures a juicy little earmark for Aurora. The relationship is furthered by the fact that Wicker's former Chief of Staff works for the lobbying outfit that lobbies for, you guessed it, Aurora. With Trent Lott and Chip Pickering expected to bolt to K Street, and with Republican corruption stories again flowing like water, this story has the potential to blow up should Wicker get appointed to the Senate or run for the seat opened up by Lott's resignation. Stay tuned! (HT: Cotton Mouth)

We'll know a lot more Monday afternoon. Stay tuned!

Post-Christmas Catch-Up

2007-12-28T14:07:00.000-05:00

Idaho: The Idaho Statesman's Dan Popkey likens Democratic Senate candidate Larry LaRocco to Rocky Balboa. If LaRocco is Balboa to Republican Jim Risch's Apollo Creed, I trust the result will be more similar to Rocky II than the original. One fun fact that Popkey mentions in his column: during their Lieutenant Governor campaign against one another last year, when Risch could not get the specific debate format he wanted (which would have resulted in Risch and LaRocco not actually debating but appearing on stage one after the other, never actually interacting), Risch refused to debate, not unlike a coward.

Meanwhile, Risch is getting another Republican primary opponent:

An Iraq veteran from Wilder says he will run to replace U.S. Sen. Larry Craig.

Army Reserve Col. Scott Syme, 53, announced Christmas Day he will challenge Lt. Gov. Jim Risch and elk farmer Rex Rammell in the Republican Primary. Larry LaRocco has announced he will run for Craig's seat as a Democrat. Craig is stepping down at the end of his term in January 2009.

Syme, who grew up in Weiser and is now a real estate broker in Caldwell, will kick off his campaign Thursday morning at the Washington County Courthouse in Weiser.

"I think a lot of people are dissatisfied with career politicians being the only ones with a chance," he said Tuesday.

An Iraq veteran could galvanize a chunk of Republican voters and, at least, give Risch a headache if not a run for his money.

Alaska: Uh oh. The foreman for the construction job that the corrupt VECO Corporation oversaw on the home of Ted Stevens has given an interview on the proceedings, during which he called it "ludicrous" that the cost of the job was in line with what Stevens claims to have paid for it. It continues to look awfully bad for Stevens.

New Mexico: Joe Monahan has heard fundraising amounts on the Republican Senate candidates (note: actual filings are due next month - this is just hearsay): Steve Pearce $450,000; Heather Wilson $350,000. It will be interesting to compare to Democratic Congressman Tom Udall's take once numbers are out.

Maine: The Vice Chair of the local County Democratic Committee smartly responds to a string of astroturf on behalf of Susan Collins that has been clogging the pages of the Kennebec Journal. I hope the Kennebec Journal wises up and pays closer attention to authors of the letters they print as we approach Election Day. (To see the astroturf in question, check here and here for the links.)

Kentucky: The Louisville Courier-Journal has dubbed Mitch McConnell "The Obstructer."

Nebraska: Tony Raimondo has scored a big addition to his team as he inches closer to a 2008 Senate bid, former Kerrey/Nelson/Fahey campaign honcho Paul Johnson. Still no word from (Draft) Scott Kleeb on a possible bid.

Georgia: Spineless Saxby Chambliss is taking heat on tax issues from Allen Buckley, a Libertarian Party candidate for Senate in 2008. Couple that with the loud chorus of boos Chambliss got over immigration reform back in May at his state's Republican convention, and, clearly, a lot of folks who should be populating Chambliss' base aren't too enthused about him. I don't think there is a critical mass of discontent with Chambliss among Georgia conservative circles (yet) for it to make an electoral difference, but it's always nice to hear.

Ten Terrific Charities

2007-12-25T22:49:00.000-05:00

With this being the holiday season (and with news from the 2008 Senate races being very light right now), I thought I'd highlight a few charities you should consider.

The Death Penalty Project: "The Death Penalty Project is an international human rights organisation which provides free legal representation to the many individuals still facing the death penalty in the Caribbean and Africa, and works to ensure compliance with regional and international human rights standards."

Emergency Communities: "Emergency Communities is a non-profit organization that employs compassion and creativity to provide community-based disaster relief. Since Katrina, we have operated four relief sites, served over 300,000 meals and 25,000 residents of the Gulf."

Human Rights Campaign: "The Human Rights Campaign is America’s largest civil rights organization working to achieve gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender equality."

Human Rights Watch: "Human Rights Watch is dedicated to protecting the human rights of people around the world."

Kiva: "Kiva lets you lend to a specific entrepreneur in the developing world - empowering them to lift themselves out of poverty."

National Coalition for Homeless Veterans: "The National Coalition for Homeless Veterans (NCHV) will end homelessness among veterans by shaping public policy, promoting collaboration, and building the capacity of service providers."

Natural Resources Defense Council: "NRDC is the nation's most effective environmental action organization. We use law, science and the support of 1.2 million members and online activists to protect the planet's wildlife and wild places and to ensure a safe and healthy environment for all living things."

Planned Parenthood: "Planned Parenthood Federation of America (PPFA) is the nation’s leading women’s health care provider, educator, and advocate, serving women, men, teens, and families. For more than 90 years, we’ve done more than any other organization in the United States to improve women’s health and safety, prevent unintended pregnancies, and advance the right and ability of individuals and families to make informed and responsible choices."

Southern Poverty Law Center: "Today, SPLC is internationally known for its tolerance education programs, its legal victories against white supremacists and its tracking of hate groups."

United Negro College Fund: "At a time when a college degree is what a high school diploma was to previous generations, the minimum entry-level requirement for almost every well-paying career, UNCF plays a critical role in enabling more than 65,000 students each year to attend college and get the education they want and deserve." - "Because a mind is a terrible thing to waste."

If, after your holiday shopping and charitable giving, you have a few bucks left burning a hole in your pocket, consider a contribution to some terrific Democratic candidates for Senate in 2008.

Happy Holidays!

Saturday Briefs

2007-12-22T11:53:00.000-05:00

Mississippi: A primarily Democratic pollster found that former Governor Ronnie Musgrove is leading Republican Rep. Roger Wicker by double-digits (48-34) in a possible match-up to succeed Trent Lott. Mississippi's Republican Gov. Haley Barbour has ten days from this past Tuesday, the day Lott formally resigned, to appoint a successor until a special election. Whether the special election will be held in the next 100 days or on Election Day 2008, of course, will likely be decided in the courts.

Alaska: Ted Stevens' first Republican primary opponent has stepped up to the plate, and it's someone Ted is rather familiar with:

Anchorage developer David Cuddy is making another run against Ted Stevens.

Cuddy said he would file a letter of intent after New Year's to run in the 2008 Republican primary for the U.S. Senate. He last challenged Stevens over a decade ago.

Cuddy comes from one of Alaska's most prominent banking families. He's a former state legislator and used to be president of First National Bank of Anchorage. He spent time earlier this decade living in Los Angeles, consulting for the entertainment industry.

Cuddy spent roughly $1 million, most of that from his own bank account, in an unsuccessful effort to wrest the party nomination from Stevens in 1996. Cuddy got just 27 percent of the primary vote then.

Cuddy, 55, ran that race as a conservative who said he wanted to shrink government and cut taxes. It turned into a hard-hitting campaign in which Cuddy accused Stevens in a series of advertisements of breaking the law and abusing the perks of power. The Federal Election Commission ended up dismissing a claim by Cuddy that Stevens' 1990 campaign committee improperly spent campaign contributions on him and his staff.

Cuddy said Friday that in this race he doesn't plan to make an issue of the federal investigation of Stevens.

The FBI and IRS raided Stevens' Girdwood home in late July as part of a probe into corruption in Alaska politics. Stevens has not been charged.

Cuddy has experience in the public sector, experience in business, conservative cred, and money to at least partially self-finance a run. And Cuddy should make it a point to say at every single campaign stop, "I don't intend to make an issue out of the numerous corruption investigations by the FBI, IRS, and others into Ted Stevens' wheelings and dealings." Heck, he should say it every other paragraph so people know for sure that he doesn't intend to make it an issue. By the way, shrinking government and cutting taxes (and, based on that, probably limiting the earmarks for which Ted Stevens is so notorious)? Sounds like a candidate the Club for Growth could really get behind in a primary challenge to Stevens.

Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe misleading the public on climate change and global warming? No!?! Actually, yes.

Idaho: Democratic Senate candidate and former Congressman Larry LaRocco released his position paper on immigration issues.

Texas: Stop Cornyn has rounded up its 12 Days of a Cornyn Christmas. My favorite: Four Undisclosed Earmarks.

A Republican dirty-trickster, pissed at the Republican establishment for throwing him under the bus, tells all in a new book. It should be very enlightening reading. (Fun fact: the author frequently compares Mitch McConnell to "a sheet of drywall.")

Friday Tidbits

2007-12-21T14:12:00.000-05:00

North Carolina: Earlier this week, the Charlotte Observer slammed Elizabeth Dole on immigration:

Sen. Dole worked hard to help kill a decent immigration reform bill in the U.S. Senate in July. It wasn't perfect, but it provided a practical, intelligent way to secure the border -- and pay for it. It also took the sensible step of providing illegal immigrants a conditional path to legal status. Too bad lawmakers such as Sen. Dole were more interested in shouting "amnesty" and opposing any step toward legal status than they were in helping the folks back home.

Subsequently, Dole weakly responded to the paper: 1) confusing inaction with accomplishment 2) listing how she would throw literally billions of dollars at the problem without explaining where those billions would come from, and 3) focusing on ways to enhance border security without addressing exactly what her position is on what should be done with the more than ten million undocumented immigrants in the United States.

South Dakota: A new (though apparently partisan) poll sees Senator Tim Johnson absolutely crushing his hypothetical Republican opponent by a 67-29 margin. The poll also clocked Johnson's favorable-unfavorable at 64-18.

Mississippi: Yup, the scheduling for the special election to replace Trent Lott will ultimately be determined by the courts. Why do I think that even GOP Gov. Haley Barbour knows that he's full of it and trying to get away with a fast one? Because in defending his desire to pull the special election off until Election Day 2008, he's (apparently rather vociferously) "claiming executive authority." It shouldn't matter if Barbour is the Pope or Superman or whoever. The Mississippi state Constitution has language that determines the process. It's up to the Mississippi courts to determine the interpretation. "Claiming executive authority" seems like a gambit of desperation.

Oregon: The Oregonian calls out Gordon Smith for his contradictory comments on Trent Lott's apparent endorsement of segregation. I think Gordo's Christmas wish is that this story goes away.

Virginia: Conservative state delegate Bob Marshall has formed an exploratory committee as he considers a Republican primary challenge to Jim Gilmore.

Kentucky: Lieutenant Colonel Andrew Horne received the endorsement of Democracy for America's Kentucky chapter.

New Hampshire: A new ARG poll actually sees Republican John Sununu leading popular Democratic former Governor Jeanne Shaheen. How can this be? Two explanations. First, the Shaheen name has been in the press in a negative light over the last couple weeks thanks to Bill's comments. If that's the reason, it should blow over after the New Hampshire primary activity wears down. Second, the ARG polls may have an anti-Democrat or pro-Republican bias. Why would I suggest that? Because ARG also saw wildly popular Democratic Governor John Lynch only poll 48-32 in a hypothetical match-up against Republican Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta. Lynch won re-election last year with 74% of the vote. To only poll at 48% in a hypothetical match-up seems awfully low. If that's the reason, these numbers should not be cause for concern.

Thursday Rundown

2007-12-20T13:09:00.000-05:00

November fundraising numbers, courtesy of Roll Coll:

One year out from the November 2008 elections, the DSCC raised $4.1 million, committee officials said Wednesday, compared with the $2.3 million raised in November by the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

The DSCC counted $25.5 million in cash on hand at the end of November, while the NRSC had $10.4 million.

The Democratic committee spent $2.1 million in November, compared with $1.4 million spent by the NRSC.

But while the NRSC has no debt left over from the 2006 cycle, the DSCC still had a $2 million debt remaining on Nov. 30.

Yet another month where the DSCC nearly doubled the NRSC's take. And the DSCC's debt is evaporating. The DSCC's cash-on-hand-minus-debt advantage over the NRSC is up to $13.1 million.

Mississippi: Republican Trent Lott officially resigned at 11:30pm Tuesday night, but, as of Wednesday afternoon, Mississippi's Republican Gov. Haley Barbour's office still "had not been officially informed of the vacancy." Ummmm, you think somebody would have, maybe, faxed a note or a copy of the resignation letter over to the Governor's office sometime Wednesday morning between 9:00am and noon that their U.S. Senator had resigned. Another indication of Republicans causing government to be inefficient.

Oregon: Blue Oregon's intrepid Kari Chisholm thoroughly reviews Gordon Smith's integrity-free comments on Trent Lott with a fine-toothed comb. Very entertaining reading. In short, Gordon Smith was lying then or he's lying now. Either way, he is not trustworthy and, again, lacks integrity and conviction. Also, the story broken by the Guru on the Constitution Party's Mary Starrett considering a 2008 Senate challenge to Smith made top Capitol Hill newspaper The Hill, though I'm quite sure Smith has heard the news by now. MyDD's Singer makes an interesting connection between the timing of Smith's possible challenge from the right and his kowtowing to conservative leadership in the form of his glowing comments about Trent Lott.

Kentucky: Leading conservative blog RedState attacks Mitch McConnell's lack of fiscal conservatism.

Virginia: State delegate Bob Marshall says an official announcement regarding a 2008 Senate primary challenge to Republican Jim Gilmore will come by the end of this week.

New Jersey: The Military Coalition honored Senator Frank Lautenberg for his commitment to veterans and those currently serving.

New Mexico: Labor is lining up behind Tom Udall for his record supporting the working families of New Mexico.

North Carolina: Public Policy Polling looks at the overwhelmingly similar results of the recent Daily Kos poll, compared with their most recent poll, despite different methodologies.

Alaska: This is pretty funny. Just a few months after the FBI raided Ted Stevens home as part of their corruption investigation, Stevens RSVPed that he would be attending the FBI's holiday party. Unfortunately, despite the RSVP, he was a no-show.

Republicans claim to oppose spending increases, but Republicans are also addicted to pork-barrel spending. Maybe I'm missing something, or maybe Senate Republicans are just hypocritical and dishonest when it comes to spending issues.

Reflecting on a Broken Record

2007-12-19T20:23:00.000-05:00

Brian Young at Roadblock Republicans.com reflects on the record obstructionism by the current Senate GOP:

And we have a record!!!!!

Last night, the Roadblock Republicans accomplished a feat no ordinary group of obstructionists could have pulled off. No, it takes a special brand of legislator to actually break the Roadblock record in less than half the time of the previous record. Only a group with a near-pathological disregard for the actual health of our democracy, only a group with a single-minded focus on the cynical political strategies of their consultants, only a group with a imperious disdain for the people of the country could’ve pulled off such a feat.

So, congratulations go out to the Roadblock Republicans. They have etched their names in the history books forever.

And let’s just remember what is really being blocked:

A new course in Iraq: BLOCKED

A new energy future: BLOCKED

More health care for kids: BLOCKED

Help for people affected by the mortgage meltdown: BLOCKED

We make fun of the Republicans, and we get snarky about the Republicans, but the cold facts are that their obstruction has real-world consequences. This stuff matters.

But you see, that’s the difference between Republicans and Democrats right there: to Democrats, government and governing is a responsibility, something to be undertaken with care and with an appreciation of the citizens being affected. To Republicans, it’s just a meaningless, cynical game to be exploited for partisan purposes. Partisanship in service of political goals is fine … we practice that here all the time. Partisanship in service of nothing more than an ambition for power and prestige … well that’s the Roadblock Republicans.

We’ve got to do something about this.

Yes, we do have to do something about this. That thing to do? Get more Democratic Senators elected!

Wednesday Afternoon Round-Up

2007-12-19T14:52:00.000-05:00

Mitch McConnell blames "the numbers" for the "rather slim" chances of Republicans winning back the Senate majority (rather than, perhaps, the quality of the candidates or the issues at hand):

“There’s no question that if you just look at the numbers, we have a daunting task,” McConnell said at a Wednesday news conference on the eve of the year-end congressional adjournment. “I think the chances of you all calling me the majority leader a year from now are rather slim because of the number situation.”

Out of 35 Senate seats up for reelection in 2008, 23 belong to Republicans, and Democrats either are leading or competitive in four of the five open seats in which no appointed incumbent is seeking reelection.

McConnell said Republicans have a “good chance of staying roughly where we are” with 49 GOP senators. But even if their minority slips to 45, 46 or 47 members, he said, “Senate Republicans will be able to have an impact on public policy.”

What if their minority slips below 45? And when McConnell says that the Senate GOP has a "good chance of staying roughly where we are," how broadly is he defining "roughly"?

North Carolina: Daily Kos has released its latest in a string of polls conducted by Research 2000 on 2008 Senate races. It found Elizabeth Dole still hovering below 50%, as she led State Senator Kay Hagan 46-39 and businessman Jim Neal 47-37. The poll also put Dole's favorable-unfavorable at an unintimidating 46-38, with Hagan's at 39-23 and Neal's at 34-27. As Kos notes:

Just a seven-point deficit by Hagan, and a 10-point one for Neal, both of them keeping Dole under 50? With the low name ID of the two Democrats, what these results say is that North Carolina voters aren't sold on a second term for Dole, and are willing to give the Democrat a good look. No matter who emerges from the Democratic primary, this is going to be a real race.

Kentucky: It appears that state Attorney General Greg Stumbo will run to return to the state Legislature. So, while businessmen Charlie Owen and Greg Fischer continue to ponder a 2008 Senate bid, Lieutenant Colonel Andrew Horne appears the likeliest candidate to carry the Democratic banner against Mitch McConnell. Be sure to watch Horne's three-minute introductory video if you haven't already - it's phenomenal.

Yesterday, I mentioned that the Mitch McConnell Republican Senate minority is now officially the most filibustering, most obstructionist Senate minority in history. The Campaign for America's Future put out a report (in PDF format) listing every single Republican filibuster, as well as every Bush veto and veto threat, chronicling this historic Republican obstructionism.

Wednesday Tidbits

2007-12-19T12:48:00.000-05:00

Bob Corker and Norm Coleman are both being eyed as the next head of the NRSC. Jim Talent of Missouri was also eyed for the gig for this election cycle before he got knocked out by Senator Claire McCaskill. In other words, Bob Corker may be the frontrunner, as Coleman's re-election is in high jeopardy. My first instinct is that a piece of furniture would be a better Chair than either John Ensign is or Elizabeth Dole was. But the conventional wisdom was that Ensign would be far superior to Dole. Hopefully Corker (or whoever is next) will just be more of the same as we look ahead to 2010.

Oregon: Gordon Smith is getting slammed in the media, both local and national, for his integrity-free flip-flop on Trent Lott's racist sentiments. He is "Say Anything" Senator Smith for a reason. (P.S. To KVAL-Eugene, KATU-Portland, and The Olympian, who ran the headline "Democrats accuse Smith of flip-flop on Lott" - it's not an accusation by the Democrats, as though it's a partisan attack or anything up for debate; it's a statement of fact. He flip-flopped. There's no debate. Please properly portray the situation as such.)

Maine: Jeezum Crow! Less than a week after the Kennebec Journal ran a pro-Susan-Collins letter to the editor written by a College Republican chapter Chair without identifying him as such, the same paper runs another pro-Susan-Collins letter to the editor written by a Republican state legislator again without identifying him as such! Are the Kennebec Journal's editors incredibly lazy or incredibly partisan?

Mississippi: Trent Lott officially resigned at 11:30pm last night. Expect an appointment by Republican Governor Haley Barbour in the next ten days, followed by a court battle when Barbour officially schedules the special election for Election Day 2008 but the state Attorney General argues that a special must be scheduled within 100 days of the Lott resignation.

Kentucky: Will state Attorney General Greg Stumbo return to the familiar confines of the state Legislature rather than run for Senate in 2008? We may know tomorrow. Meanwhile, BlueGrassRoots wonders how many "last chances" Mitch McConnell will give on Iraq.

New Mexico: Republican Senate candidate Steve Pearce could see us with a troop presence in Iraq for 50 years. Great.

Texas: Is the Lone Star State ready to go blue? A 61% GOP-performing state legislative district just elected a Democrat with over 52% of the vote. It is a promising omen for State Representative and Lieutenant Colonel Rick Noriega.

Tuesday Night Briefs

2007-12-18T22:40:00.000-05:00

Break out the champagne! The Mitch McConnell Republican Senate minority is now officially the most filibustering, most obstructionist Senate minority in history. And the McConnell Republicans broke the record in less than one year of the two-year 110th Congress!

Oregon: Integrity and conviction are two qualities Gordon Smith completely lacks. To wit: at today's send-off of Trent Lott, Gordon Smith criticized the "wolfpack" that questioned Lott's racist sentiments at Strom Thurmond's 100th birthday party, calling Lott's comments "misconstrued." The problem? At the time, Gordon Smith was part of the "wolfpack," saying that "Senator Lott's words were offensive and I was deeply dismayed to hear of them." Smith sure didn't seem to consider Lott's comments misconstrued at the time. As Greg Sargent says, "Classic Gordon Smith -- condemns Lott when the pressure is on, but completely exonerates him when no one's paying any attention."

Mississippi: Speaking of Trent Lott, his spokesman says that a formal resignation will occur "either Wednesday or Thursday." Republican Gov. Haley Barbour plans to appoint a successor to serve until a special election in November 2008. However, state Attorney General Jim Hood released a statement saying that "a special election must be held within 100 days after U.S. Trent Lott makes his resignation official." It looks like we can expect a showdown in a Mississippi courtroom over the scheduling of the special election.

Tuesday Quick Hits

2007-12-18T12:32:00.000-05:00

Alabama: Despite the fact that supporting and defending the Constitution of the United States is a key principle in the oath U.S. Senators take (heck, it's the first line!), Jeff Sessions actually mocks those that would fight to defend the Constitution. First, Sessions is an idiot. Second, Patrick Henry said "Give me liberty or give me death," not "Give me liberty, unless we have to work hard to maintain it from time to time."

Alaska: More sketchy, scandal-ridden earmarks courtesy of Ted Stevens.

Kentucky: More conservative leaders are unhappy with Mitch McConnell. Meanwhile, McConnell is caught pushing for tax breaks for another special interest that happens to be lining his campaign coffers.

Nebraska: Scott Kleeb on the Issues. Draft Kleeb!

Oregon: An Independent Party-commissioned poll sees the Independent Party candidate running in a statistical dead heat with Democratic Senate candidate Jeff Merkley, as they hold Republican Gordon Smith to under 40%.

MyDD's Beeton sees some of our Democratic Senate candidates voicing support for Chris Dodd's fight against retroactive telecom immunity.

Speaking of, count the Guru among those very much warming up to the idea of Chris Dodd being our next Senate Majority Leader.

Monday Night Round-Up

2007-12-17T20:59:00.000-05:00

Oklahoma: Do you remember about a year-and-a-half ago when Jim "In Denial" Inhofe declared how proud he was that there hasn't been a "homosexual relationship" in the "recorded history" of his family? Sounds a bit homophobic, no? Hold that thought for one second. In Wikipedia's entry on "latent homosexuality," it mentions:

A theory that homophobia is a result of latent homosexuality was put forth in the late 20th century. A 1996 study conducted at the University of Georgia by Henry Adams, Lester Wright Jr., and Bethany Lohr indicates that a number of "homophobic" males exhibit latent homosexuality.

What does one have to do with the other? Check out the graphic to the right. It is from an online fundraiser on Inhofe's website, www-dot-jiminhofe-dot-com. It's a tall shaft, atop which is a giant disco ball. And the slogan is "Power the Pole to Light the Ball." Draw your own conclusions, but maybe Inhofe has something else he's in denial about. (Another observer went the Viagra route. Which is more low-brow? Your call.)

In more serious OK-Sen news, State Senator Andrew Rice's pollster released some new polling data. Some numbers in the release include: 58% of Oklahomans feel the nation is off on the wrong track; only 48% of Oklahomans feel Inhofe is doing an excellent or good job; meanwhile, 45% feel Inhofe is doing only a fair or poor job. The most interesting information from the release:

As a result of this evaluation, fewer than half of Oklahomans want to re-elect Inhofe to the U.S. Senate. In a ballot matchup between Republican James Inhofe and an unnamed "Democratic candidate," Inhofe fails to break through 50%, beating the unnamed Democrat 46% to 38% - an 8% lead. When Andrew Rice’s name is substituted in for the unnamed Democrat, the ballot remains virtually unchanged with Inhofe failing to break 50% again: Inhofe scores 49% compared to Rice’s 35%. This slim 4% shift is barely outside the margin of error of the survey and occurs despite the fact that 73% of voters are currently unfamiliar with Rice. ...

To further test openness to Rice’s candidacy we read voters a series of positive statements about Andrew Rice. After hearing these positive statements about Rice’s values, agenda and background when asked a second time about their choice for Senate, Democrat Andrew Rice jumped out to a 2% lead, beating Republican James Inhofe 43% to 41%. This indicates both that voters are potentially open to Rice and that when presented with a positive alternative to Inhofe, support for the Senator dropped significantly below 50%.

Of course, reading positive statements about Rice would up his numbers, but it also demonstrates that, if he can effectively relay his message and his background, Rice can beat Inhofe. That the race is as close as it is with Rice currently having such low name ID shows a great deal of upside. And Rice's pollster, Benenson Strategy Group, is one of the more reputable pollsters out there (also from the release):

The Benenson Strategy Group conducted 900 interviews statewide with likely general election voters December 8 - 12, 2007. The margin of error for overall results is ±3.27%.

The Benenson Strategy Group’s clients include Governor Tim Kaine (VA), Senator Jim Webb (VA), and Senator Robert Menendez (NJ). Peter Brodnitz, who conducted this survey, was named "Pollster of the Year" by the American Association of Political Consultants earlier this year for his work for Kaine, Webb and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. It is a bi-partisan award given to one pollster every two years.

If you want to help Andrew Rice close in on Inhofe, combat Inhofe's disco ball fundraiser with a contribution to Rice.

Oregon: The story I broke this morning on 2006 Constitution Party nominee Mary Starrett not denying rumored interest in a 2008 Senate bid against Republican Gordon Smith has been picked up by numerous Oregon-based outlets: The Oregonian, Blue Oregon, PolitickerOR, Ridenbaugh Press, Forward Oregon, Witigonen, and Just Out, as well as Third Party Watch outside of Oregon. With gathering interest in a Starrett for Senate bid, perhaps she should strike while the iron is hot and announce. Just a few days ago, Ms. Starrett released a missive on her thoughts on laws regarding firearms, in which she comments:

I would suggest voters fed up with the political duopoly that regularly works to further disarm us and now controls our government, look for another option. Polls show folks are largely dissatisfied with both “Big Box” parties and are considering the “third” option.

Perhaps Ms. Starrett will take action and be that "third option" for Oregon voters.

In other Oregon Senate news, a press release today by Democratic candidate Steve Novick alerts us to yet another failure by Gordon Smith on an important local issue:

Last week, the Senate Republicans, led by Mitch McConnell, blocked consideration of an extension of federal payments to timber dependent counties – denying Oregon communities hundreds of millions of dollars in needed assistance for public safety, roads and local services. Given that Gordon Smith hosted a trip by McConnell to Oregon last June specifically to lobby him on the value of the payments, today Democratic Senate candidate Steve Novick questioned how exactly Smith and his membership in the Republican caucus benefits Oregon.

Novick raises a good point. If Gordon Smith can't stop the leader of his own Party from blocking critical funding to Oregon, Smith is absolutely useless to Oregonians.

Kentucky: The DSCC gives us a two-fer today. First up is a month-by-month review of the year in follies for Mitch McConnell.

Colorado: The second piece from the DSCC is the latest look at Backwards Bob Schaffer's extremist positions as he "Sided Against Veterans, Homeland Security, Drug Control, Schools, [and] Cops".

Texas: The Texas Observer has a terrifically thorough feature on State Representative and Lieutenant Colonel Rick Noriega.

MyDD's Singer takes a look at the National Republican Senatorial Committee's current doldrums. Poor NRSC; nobody wants to play with them.

And the Republican vultures have started circling to pick at the committee seats that will open up when Trent Lott resigns.

Monday Items

2007-12-17T11:39:00.000-05:00

Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) released their list of the top ten ethics scandals of 2007. On the list:

Ted Stevens still sitting on Senate Appropriations;

Senate Ethics Committee looking into Sen. Craig, but not Sen. Vitter

Both are indeed highly scandalous. (HT: Think Progress) I recently commented in depth that the Senate Ethics Committee should be much busier than they seem to be.

Oregon: On Saturday, the Guru mentioned that he had heard rumors that the Constitution Party candidate for Governor of Oregon in 2006, Mary Starrett, is considering a 2008 Senate bid. Well, I engaged in a little investigative journalism and simply contacted Ms. Starrett. I mentioned the rumor and asked if a 2008 Senate bid was something she was considering. Her response by e-mail:

Anything's possible...and let's face it Gordon Smith needs a spanking, don't you think?

First off, that certainly isn't a "Nope, not considering a bid." And it certainly sounds like she's no fan of Gordon Smith. Like I mentioned on Saturday, she got 3.6% in the OR-Gov race, so her entry could cost Gordon Smith two or three percent. Stay tuned! Meanwhile, it looks like Speaker Jeff Merkley had a great event this weekend with Senator Jon Tester.

North Carolina: Public Policy Polling is out with their latest round of Senate polling; and, while Elizabeth Dole's approve-disapprove still languishes at a weak 46-38, she does break 50% for the first time this cycle against potential opponents, as she leads State Senator Kay Hagan 51-39 and businessman Jim Neal 52-37.

Virginia: Looks like Republican Jim Gilmore is getting a primary opponent after all, state delegate Bob Marshall.

Kentucky: Could Mitch McConnell see an opponent in the 2008 Republican Senate primary in the person of conservative Democrat Bruce Lunsford? Crazier things have happened.

South Carolina: Lindsey Graham's 90-day deadline until Iraq should be considered a "failed state" is up. Any comment, Lindsey?