Looking Ahead to 2008
Election Day 2006 is on Monday. The balance of power in the U.S. Senate (along with the U.S. House of Representatives and many Governorships and state Legislatures) is up for grabs. So why start looking at 2008 already? Because it's never too early.
As tenuous a time as the GOP is having with the 2006 election, the GOP's prospects in 2008 are all the more difficult, numerically, given that they have 21 seats to defend, compared with 12 Democratic seats.
Prime opportunities for Democratic pick-ups of GOP seats include Colorado (Wayne Allard), Minnesota (Norm Coleman), Oregon (Gordon Smith), New Hampshire (John Sununu), and Virginia (John Warner). Other targets include Georgia (Saxby Chambliss), Texas (John Cornyn), North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole), and Oklahoma – yes, Oklahoma – (James Inhofe).
The GOP's best chances for pick-ups of Democratic seats include Louisiana (Mary Landrieu) and South Dakota (Tim Johnson). Other targets include Illinois (Richard Durbin), Iowa (Tom Harkin), and New Jersey – yes, New Jersey – (Frank Lautenberg).
There is also the potential for several open seats, between retirements and Presidential runs. The oldest Senators up for re-election in 2008 (and, therefore, the ones we should watch most closely for possible retirement announcements) are Ted Stevens (R-AK) at age 82, Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) at age 82, John Warner (R-VA) at age 79, and Pete Domenici (R-NM) at age 74. Senators up for re-election in 2008 who are reportedly considering Presidential bids that year are Joe Biden (D-DE), Chuck Hagel (R-NE), and John Kerry (D-MA).
33 Senators:
21 GOP, 12 Dem
2000: 22 Bush, 11 Gore
2004: 23 Bush, 10 Kerry
Average Age: 62.38 GOP, 62.25 Dem
Note: Approval ratings are from Survey USA 3/23/06.
Lamar Alexander (R-TN)
Approval: 57-32
Age: 66 (7/3/40)
2000: Bush 51, Gore 47
2002: Alexander 54, Clement 44
2004: Bush 57, Kerry 43
Wayne Allard (R-CO)
Approval: 47-37
Age: 62 (12/2/43)
2000: Bush 51, Gore 42
2002: Allard 51, Strickland 46
2004: Bush 53, Kerry 46
Max Baucus (D-MT)
Approval: 57-32
Age: 64 (12/11/41)
2000: Bush 58, Gore 33
2002: Baucus 63, Taylor 32
2004: Bush 59, Kerry 38
Joe Biden (D-DE)
Approval: 60-33
Age: 63 (11/20/42)
2000: Gore 55, Bush 42
2002: Biden 58, Clatworthy 41
2004: Kerry 53, Bush 46
Saxby Chambliss (R-GA)
Approval: 50-36
Age: 62 (11/10/43)
2000: Bush 55, Gore 43
2002: Chambliss 53, Cleland 46
2004: Bush 58, Kerry 41
Thad Cochran (R-MS)
Approval: 65-26
Age: 68 (12/7/37)
2000: Bush 58, Gore 41
2002: Cochran 85 (No Dem, O'Hara Ref 15)
2004: Bush 60, Kerry 40
Norm Coleman (R-MN)
Approval: 55-38
Age: 57 (8/17/49)
2000: Gore 48, Bush 46
2002: Coleman 50, Mondale 47
2004: Kerry 51, Bush 48
Susan Collins (R-ME)
Approval: 72-24
Age: 53 (12/7/52)
2000: Gore 49, Bush 44
2002: Collins 59, Pingree 41
2004: Kerry 53, Bush 45
John Cornyn (R-TX)
Approval: 44-38
Age: 54 (2/2/52)
2000: Bush 59, Gore 38
2002: Cornyn 55, Kirk 43
2004: Bush 61, Kerry 38
Larry Craig (R-ID)
Approval: 59-32
Age: 61 (7/20/45)
2000: Bush 67, Gore 28
2002: Craig 65, Blinken 33
2004: Bush 69, Kerry 38
Elizabeth Dole (R-NC)
Approval: 56-35
Age: 70 (7/29/36)
2000: Bush 56, Gore 43
2002: Dole 54, Bowles 45
2004: Bush 56, Kerry 44
Pete Domenici (R-NM)
Approval: 63-28
Age: 74 (5/7/32)
2000: Gore 48, Bush 48
2002: Domenici 65, Tristani 35
2004: Bush 50, Kerry 49
Richard Durbin (D-IL)
Approval: 48-42
Age: 61 (11/21/44)
2000: Gore 55, Bush 43
2002: Durbin 60, Durkin 38
2004: Kerry 55, Bush 45
Michael Enzi (R-WY)
Approval: 57-30
Age: 61 (2/1/44)
2000: Bush 69, Gore 28
2002: Enzi 73, Corcoran 27
2004: Bush 69, Kerry 29
Lindsey Graham (R-SC)
Approval: 59-29
Age: 51 (7/9/55)
2000: Bush 57, Gore 41
2002: Graham 54, Sanders 44
2004: Bush 58, Kerry 41
Chuck Hagel (R-NE)
Approval: 59-32
Age: 60 (10/4/46)
2000: Bush 62, Gore 33
2002: Hagel 83, Matulka 14
2004: Bush 67, Kerry 32
Tom Harkin (D-IA)
Approval: 53-39
Age: 66 (11/19/39)
2000: Gore 49, Bush 48
2002: Harkin 54, Ganske 44
2004: Bush 50, Kerry 49
James Inhofe (R-OK)
Approval: 46-39
Age: 61 (11/17/34)
2000: Bush 60, Gore 38
2002: Inhofe 57, Walters 37
2004: Bush 66, Gore 34
Tim Johnson (D-SD)
Approval: 69-24
Age: 59 (12/28/46)
2000: Bush 60, Gore 38
2002: Johnson 50, Thune 49
2004: Bush 60, Kerry 38
John Kerry (D-MA)
Approval: 53-43
Age: 62 (12/11/43)
2000: Gore 60, Bush 33
2002: Kerry 81 (No GOP, Cloud Lib 19)
2004: Kerry 62, Bush 37
Mary Landrieu (D-LA)
Approval: 53-42
Age: 50 (11/23/55)
2000: Bush 53, Gore 45
2002: Landrieu 52, Terrell 48
2004: Bush 57, Kerry 42
Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ)
Approval: 45-38
Age: 82 (1/23/24)
2000: Gore 56, Bush 40
2002: Lautenberg 54, Forrester 44
2004: Kerry 53, Bush 47
Carl Levin (D-MI)
Approval: 56-33
Age: 72 (6/28/34)
2000: Gore 51, Bush 46
2002: Levin 61, Raczkowski 38
2004: Kerry 51, Bush 48
Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
Approval: 49-40
Age: 64 (2/20/42)
2000: Bush 56, Gore 41
2002: McConnell 64, Weinberg 36
2004: Bush 60, Kerry 40
Mark Pryor (D-AR)
Approval: 57-29
Age: 43 (1/10/63)
2000: Bush 51, Gore 46
2002: Pryor 54, Hutchinson 46
2004: Bush 54, Kerry 45
Jack Reed (D-RI)
Approval: 68-23
Age: 56 (11/12/49)
2000: Gore 61, Bush 32
2002: Reed 78, Tingle 22
2004: Kerry 60, Bush 39
Pat Roberts (R-KS)
Approval: 50-38
Age: 70 (4/20/36)
2000: Bush 58, Gore 37
2002: Roberts 83 (No Dem, Rosile Lib 9, Cook Ref 8)
2004: Bush 62, Kerry 37
Jay Rockefeller (D-WV)
Approval: 66-27
Age: 69 (6/18/37)
2000: Bush 52, Gore 46
2002: Rockefeller 63, Wolfe 37
2004: Bush 56, Gore 43
Jeff Sessions (R-AL)
Approval: 58-31
Age: 59 (12/24/46)
2000: Bush 57, Gore 42
2002: Sessions 59, Parker 40
2004: Bush 63, Kerry 37
Gordon Smith (R-OR)
Approval: 50-38
Age: 54 (5/25/52)
2000: Gore 47, Bush 47
2002: Smith 56, Bradbury 40
2004: Kerry 52, Bush 48
Ted Stevens (R-AK)
Approval: 65-29
Age: 82 (11/18/23)
2000: Bush 59, Gore 29
2002: Stevens 79, Vondersaar 10
2004: Bush 62, Kerry 35
John Sununu (R-NH)
Approval: 52-36
Age: 42 (9/10/64)
2000: Bush 48, Gore 47
2002: Sununu 51, Shaheen 47
2004: Kerry 50, Bush 49
John Warner (R-VA)
Approval: 63-24
Age: 79 (2/18/27)
2000: Bush 53, Gore 45
2002: Warner 84 (No Dem, Spannaus O 9, Hornberger O 7)
2004: Bush 54, Kerry 45
As tenuous a time as the GOP is having with the 2006 election, the GOP's prospects in 2008 are all the more difficult, numerically, given that they have 21 seats to defend, compared with 12 Democratic seats.
Prime opportunities for Democratic pick-ups of GOP seats include Colorado (Wayne Allard), Minnesota (Norm Coleman), Oregon (Gordon Smith), New Hampshire (John Sununu), and Virginia (John Warner). Other targets include Georgia (Saxby Chambliss), Texas (John Cornyn), North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole), and Oklahoma – yes, Oklahoma – (James Inhofe).
The GOP's best chances for pick-ups of Democratic seats include Louisiana (Mary Landrieu) and South Dakota (Tim Johnson). Other targets include Illinois (Richard Durbin), Iowa (Tom Harkin), and New Jersey – yes, New Jersey – (Frank Lautenberg).
There is also the potential for several open seats, between retirements and Presidential runs. The oldest Senators up for re-election in 2008 (and, therefore, the ones we should watch most closely for possible retirement announcements) are Ted Stevens (R-AK) at age 82, Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) at age 82, John Warner (R-VA) at age 79, and Pete Domenici (R-NM) at age 74. Senators up for re-election in 2008 who are reportedly considering Presidential bids that year are Joe Biden (D-DE), Chuck Hagel (R-NE), and John Kerry (D-MA).
33 Senators:
21 GOP, 12 Dem
2000: 22 Bush, 11 Gore
2004: 23 Bush, 10 Kerry
Average Age: 62.38 GOP, 62.25 Dem
Note: Approval ratings are from Survey USA 3/23/06.
Lamar Alexander (R-TN)
Approval: 57-32
Age: 66 (7/3/40)
2000: Bush 51, Gore 47
2002: Alexander 54, Clement 44
2004: Bush 57, Kerry 43
Wayne Allard (R-CO)
Approval: 47-37
Age: 62 (12/2/43)
2000: Bush 51, Gore 42
2002: Allard 51, Strickland 46
2004: Bush 53, Kerry 46
Max Baucus (D-MT)
Approval: 57-32
Age: 64 (12/11/41)
2000: Bush 58, Gore 33
2002: Baucus 63, Taylor 32
2004: Bush 59, Kerry 38
Joe Biden (D-DE)
Approval: 60-33
Age: 63 (11/20/42)
2000: Gore 55, Bush 42
2002: Biden 58, Clatworthy 41
2004: Kerry 53, Bush 46
Saxby Chambliss (R-GA)
Approval: 50-36
Age: 62 (11/10/43)
2000: Bush 55, Gore 43
2002: Chambliss 53, Cleland 46
2004: Bush 58, Kerry 41
Thad Cochran (R-MS)
Approval: 65-26
Age: 68 (12/7/37)
2000: Bush 58, Gore 41
2002: Cochran 85 (No Dem, O'Hara Ref 15)
2004: Bush 60, Kerry 40
Norm Coleman (R-MN)
Approval: 55-38
Age: 57 (8/17/49)
2000: Gore 48, Bush 46
2002: Coleman 50, Mondale 47
2004: Kerry 51, Bush 48
Susan Collins (R-ME)
Approval: 72-24
Age: 53 (12/7/52)
2000: Gore 49, Bush 44
2002: Collins 59, Pingree 41
2004: Kerry 53, Bush 45
John Cornyn (R-TX)
Approval: 44-38
Age: 54 (2/2/52)
2000: Bush 59, Gore 38
2002: Cornyn 55, Kirk 43
2004: Bush 61, Kerry 38
Larry Craig (R-ID)
Approval: 59-32
Age: 61 (7/20/45)
2000: Bush 67, Gore 28
2002: Craig 65, Blinken 33
2004: Bush 69, Kerry 38
Elizabeth Dole (R-NC)
Approval: 56-35
Age: 70 (7/29/36)
2000: Bush 56, Gore 43
2002: Dole 54, Bowles 45
2004: Bush 56, Kerry 44
Pete Domenici (R-NM)
Approval: 63-28
Age: 74 (5/7/32)
2000: Gore 48, Bush 48
2002: Domenici 65, Tristani 35
2004: Bush 50, Kerry 49
Richard Durbin (D-IL)
Approval: 48-42
Age: 61 (11/21/44)
2000: Gore 55, Bush 43
2002: Durbin 60, Durkin 38
2004: Kerry 55, Bush 45
Michael Enzi (R-WY)
Approval: 57-30
Age: 61 (2/1/44)
2000: Bush 69, Gore 28
2002: Enzi 73, Corcoran 27
2004: Bush 69, Kerry 29
Lindsey Graham (R-SC)
Approval: 59-29
Age: 51 (7/9/55)
2000: Bush 57, Gore 41
2002: Graham 54, Sanders 44
2004: Bush 58, Kerry 41
Chuck Hagel (R-NE)
Approval: 59-32
Age: 60 (10/4/46)
2000: Bush 62, Gore 33
2002: Hagel 83, Matulka 14
2004: Bush 67, Kerry 32
Tom Harkin (D-IA)
Approval: 53-39
Age: 66 (11/19/39)
2000: Gore 49, Bush 48
2002: Harkin 54, Ganske 44
2004: Bush 50, Kerry 49
James Inhofe (R-OK)
Approval: 46-39
Age: 61 (11/17/34)
2000: Bush 60, Gore 38
2002: Inhofe 57, Walters 37
2004: Bush 66, Gore 34
Tim Johnson (D-SD)
Approval: 69-24
Age: 59 (12/28/46)
2000: Bush 60, Gore 38
2002: Johnson 50, Thune 49
2004: Bush 60, Kerry 38
John Kerry (D-MA)
Approval: 53-43
Age: 62 (12/11/43)
2000: Gore 60, Bush 33
2002: Kerry 81 (No GOP, Cloud Lib 19)
2004: Kerry 62, Bush 37
Mary Landrieu (D-LA)
Approval: 53-42
Age: 50 (11/23/55)
2000: Bush 53, Gore 45
2002: Landrieu 52, Terrell 48
2004: Bush 57, Kerry 42
Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ)
Approval: 45-38
Age: 82 (1/23/24)
2000: Gore 56, Bush 40
2002: Lautenberg 54, Forrester 44
2004: Kerry 53, Bush 47
Carl Levin (D-MI)
Approval: 56-33
Age: 72 (6/28/34)
2000: Gore 51, Bush 46
2002: Levin 61, Raczkowski 38
2004: Kerry 51, Bush 48
Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
Approval: 49-40
Age: 64 (2/20/42)
2000: Bush 56, Gore 41
2002: McConnell 64, Weinberg 36
2004: Bush 60, Kerry 40
Mark Pryor (D-AR)
Approval: 57-29
Age: 43 (1/10/63)
2000: Bush 51, Gore 46
2002: Pryor 54, Hutchinson 46
2004: Bush 54, Kerry 45
Jack Reed (D-RI)
Approval: 68-23
Age: 56 (11/12/49)
2000: Gore 61, Bush 32
2002: Reed 78, Tingle 22
2004: Kerry 60, Bush 39
Pat Roberts (R-KS)
Approval: 50-38
Age: 70 (4/20/36)
2000: Bush 58, Gore 37
2002: Roberts 83 (No Dem, Rosile Lib 9, Cook Ref 8)
2004: Bush 62, Kerry 37
Jay Rockefeller (D-WV)
Approval: 66-27
Age: 69 (6/18/37)
2000: Bush 52, Gore 46
2002: Rockefeller 63, Wolfe 37
2004: Bush 56, Gore 43
Jeff Sessions (R-AL)
Approval: 58-31
Age: 59 (12/24/46)
2000: Bush 57, Gore 42
2002: Sessions 59, Parker 40
2004: Bush 63, Kerry 37
Gordon Smith (R-OR)
Approval: 50-38
Age: 54 (5/25/52)
2000: Gore 47, Bush 47
2002: Smith 56, Bradbury 40
2004: Kerry 52, Bush 48
Ted Stevens (R-AK)
Approval: 65-29
Age: 82 (11/18/23)
2000: Bush 59, Gore 29
2002: Stevens 79, Vondersaar 10
2004: Bush 62, Kerry 35
John Sununu (R-NH)
Approval: 52-36
Age: 42 (9/10/64)
2000: Bush 48, Gore 47
2002: Sununu 51, Shaheen 47
2004: Kerry 50, Bush 49
John Warner (R-VA)
Approval: 63-24
Age: 79 (2/18/27)
2000: Bush 53, Gore 45
2002: Warner 84 (No Dem, Spannaus O 9, Hornberger O 7)
2004: Bush 54, Kerry 45
posted by Senate2008Guru | 7:03 PM
1 Comments:
This blog looks great. It's a good time to start thinking about 2008.
As for 2008, I'm hoping that Senator Hagel runs for President.
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