Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races

Keeping a close eye on developments in the 2008 U.S. Senate races

Friday, January 12, 2007

Allard's Got a Secret

  • Colorado: And the Colorado news keeps on coming. Fresh off of Denver being the announced site for the 2008 Democratic convention, Republican Senator Wayne Allard says he has a secret:

    Colorado Republican Sen. Wayne Allard says he has decided whether or not he will seek a third term in 2008 — but he isn’t ready to share it just yet.

    “Stay tuned,” he told Congressional Quarterly reporter Daphne Retter Thursday. The senator declined to elaborate further, other than to say that only he and his wife know what he has decided. ...

    The possibility that Allard might not run again has long been the subject of speculation. The winner of a 5 percentage-point victory over Democrat Tom Strickland in 2002, Allard is a supporter of term limits and had promised to serve no more than two six-year terms — a pledge Democrats are demanding that he keep.

    The senator also does not have a bulging treasury. As of Nov. 27, Allard had just $122,000 cash on hand in his Senate campaign account.
    I think he has decided to retire. The first obvious tell is the lack of campaign funds. The second is his term limit pledge. The third, and perhaps most important (and a factor that I think will play into Virginia Republican John Warner's potential decision to retire), is that he doesn't want to end his career on a loss. Colorado has gone big for the Democrats over the last few years, so the momentum is against Allard, who barely won in 2002. Meanwhile, he'll face a popular, well-funded, energetic opponent in what would be the stiffest competition of his political life. Why break a term-limit campaign promise only to run an underfunded campaign that you'll probably lose and spend two years with a giant target on you courtesy of the DSCC? Expect a retirement announcement soon. Then watch the number of potential stand-ins further fracture the Colorado GOP.


    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    While I agree that Allard has decided to retire (he's been shopping around for replacements for the last couple of months now), I don't think that the resulting scramble for a nominee will fracture the party.

    Owens has said "no", so that takes him out of the running. Tancredo is heading out to Iowa this weekend to annouce his presidential bid, so that eliminates him. Scott McInnis has said that if Allard and Owens are out, he'd run. With nearly a million in the bank, I think he'd prevent anybody like Beauprez or Schaffer from getting in. Celebrity candidates like Elway are always batted around, but only in the absence of a real candidate. If McInnis gets in the race after Allard announces his retirement in the next month (and Owens publically confirms he's out), then I think he'll clear the field.

    11:56 AM, January 13, 2007  

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