Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races

Keeping a close eye on developments in the 2008 U.S. Senate races

Wednesday, March 28, 2007


  • Alabama: Swing State Project has two commercials from Ron Sparks' recent re-election bid for Agriculture Commissioner. Given that I have never seen a campaign commercial for Agriculture Commissioner before, I must say they were phenomenal - especially when Sparks notes in the first ad that he "wrote the nation's first anti-terrorist plan to protect our food supply." If he did that as Agriculture Commissioner, imagine what he could do as Senator! The second ad deftly connects the agricultural sector with energy independence and how it can benefit Alabama's farmers. I must say, I'm getting pretty enthused about a possible Sparks bid. (And I think the commercials were effective in Alabama, too - Sparks went from a 51% election victory in 2002 to a 59% re-election victory in 2006.)

  • SSP also comes through with an impressively insightful list of when Senate candidates filed for the 2006 cycle. Bob Corker was the earliest, filing in October 2004; Senator Jim Webb was the second-latest, filing in February 2006, just nine months before Election Day. Even Senators Claire McAskill and Sherrod Brown waited until the September and October (respectively) of 2005 to file. There is a wide gamut, but it demonstrates that we have all of 2007 to recruit terrific candidates before the clock starts ticking.

  • Virginia: Raising Kaine highlights John Warner's incongruity on Iraq.

  • New Mexico: Monica Goodling taking the fifth amendment in the Attorney Purge scandal keeps Pajamas Pete Domenici's role in the scandal in the news in New Mexico. And I don't think it'll go away anytime soon. And I can't imagine that it's helping his poll numbers any.

  • Oregon: Blue Oregon wonders if the recent poll showing Gordon Smith losing to Democratic Congressman Peter DeFazio had an impact on his vote not to strip withdrawal deadline language from the Senate supplemental bill yesterday. Does the Guru think so? Yes. Smith is a finger-in-the-wind politician. He sees that he is losing his flock, so he dives to the left to appear to stay with them. I suspect that Oregon voters will take note of his lack of convictions and opt for a Senator who can demonstrate leadership and, well, a spine.

  • Idaho: mcjoan continues to stoke the Larry Craig retirement flame.

  • New Hampshire: MyDD's Singer is the latest to chime in with a chorus of "John Sununu is out of step with New Hampshire."

  • Colorado: Gubernatorial loser Bob Beauprez tries to remain relevant. Why? Any interest in a newly-wide-open Senate primary? (I really want to see a nasty CO-GOP Senate primary! Can you tell?)

  • Oklahoma: In case you were wondering if Jim "In Denial" Inhofe was the greatest yutz ever perpetrated on the American people, he is.


    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    The concern should not be the lack of candidates, but the number of candidates who have already said "no". A "no comment" keeps somebody in speculation, while a refusal removes them.

    Someone should ask the SSP to look into the number of reversal entries; that is, people who said no then changed thier minds and entered. The only two I can think of from '06 are Mike Bouchard in Michigan and Sherrod Brown in Ohio. If its possible, they should also look at their denials, and compare them to that of Kitzhaber, Easley, Davis, Lynch, Sheheen, Chandler, Ryback, McCollum, Meeker, Henry, Boren, Taylor, and DeFazio, and others who have already passed on an '08 race.

    Speaking of passing on races, a news bit from yesterday that you've yet to post: Bill Baroni is running for a recently opened state Senate seat. While this advances his career and will make him a formidible opponent perhaps in two or five years, it precludes him from running for Senate in '08 against Lautenberg.

    11:35 AM, March 28, 2007  
    Blogger NOVA said...

    McCaskill was a reversal, right?

    3:20 PM, March 28, 2007  
    Blogger Senate2008Guru said...

    McAskill was a reversal. Now, she's a Senator.

    But in the last cycle, we had the persuasive Chuck Schumer as DSCC Chair to convince McAskill to get in.

    If only we had a similarly persuasive DSCC Chair this cycle...

    3:46 PM, March 28, 2007  
    Blogger Blue South said...

    its an impressive record, but i am not that convinced by Sparks' media firm.

    5:51 PM, March 28, 2007  

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