Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races

Keeping a close eye on developments in the 2008 U.S. Senate races

Monday, April 30, 2007

Approval Ratings and Other News

  • New approval ratings - (11/22/06 approvals in parenthesis):

    On the Republican side:
    Norm Coleman: 53-41 (48-43)
    John Cornyn: 43-40 (45-42)
    Pete Domenici: 54-38 (68-25)
    Mitch McConnell: 53-40 (54-39)
    Pat Roberts: 48-39 (51-36)
    Jeff Sessions: 54-36 (58-32)
    Gordon Smith: 51-41 (54-37)
    John Warner: 55-33 (60-28)

    On the Democratic side:
    Tom Harkin: 57-38 (53-40)
    John Kerry: 54-41 (48-50)

    Observations:
    1) It's good to see both Harkin and Kerry doing better, not that I was "worried" about either; just good to see a positive trend among Democrats.
    2) Anybody who thinks that Domenici's role in the Attorney Purge Scandal isn't hurting him isn't paying attention. Domenici goes from 68-25 to 54-38, a 27-point swing in five months, and the Scandal is the only explanation. Let's see how long the trend continues and how low Domenici can go.
    3) Cornyn is at 43-40. Absolutely toxic by any sensible standards. Anybody want to claim that the net positive 3-points is good?
    4) Except for Coleman, all Republicans are down from last November.

  • South Dakota: Tim Johnson has left the hospital and will continue outpatient rehabilitative therapy. More progress is terrific news.

  • Texas: Could Texas see a Republican Senate primary? In Capitol Annex's post on the Houston Chronicle article looking at Congressman Nick Lampson's electoral choices, this tidbit gets thrown in at the end:

    What’s more interesting to me is that there are major rumblings that Cornyn is going to receive a challenge from within his own party. Names mentioned so far in that department include Lt. Governor David Dewhurst.
    That would be something to see. Cornyn's approval is tanking at 43-40. (Compare that with Kay Bailey Hutchison's 63-31.) Meanwhile, Lt. Gov. Dewhurst just won his 2006 race by a 58-37 margin. And, recalling the 2006 Texas gubernatorial race, the Lone Star State is no stranger to statewide electoral scrums. Definitely something to keep an eye on.

  • Nebraska: Robert "Count Chocula" Novak presents Chuck Hagel with this super-softball column, offering another indication that the DC-GOP establishment is behind him as state AG Jon Bruning gains steam in his possible primary challenge. Unfortunately for Hagel, I don't think Novak votes in the NE-GOP primaries.

  • 5 Comments:

    Blogger Blue South said...

    I think a Republican Primary in Texas could be bad for us, cause I think Conryn would lose and we would have to face a Republican with much better numbers.

    But, more importantly, who is paying SUSA to not poll in North Carolina. Seriously.

    1:07 PM, April 30, 2007  
    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    You have that backwards. SUSA polls are always sponsored by local media. No one in NC is paying SUSA to poll there, hence they're not. Put pressure on your local affiliates.

    1:24 PM, April 30, 2007  
    Blogger LP said...

    I think what is particularly interesting about the Domenici numbers are that his disapproval ratings have went up at the same rate as his approval ratings have went down.

    People aren't just leaving the Domenici bandwagon to sit it out and see what happens... they are actively disapproving of his job.

    And he has the phone call to David Iglesias to thank for it.

    2:50 PM, April 30, 2007  
    Blogger Blue South said...

    ah. thanks va. while that was mostly in jest i now know who to bother.

    2:57 PM, April 30, 2007  
    Blogger NOVA said...

    I don't think a major primary battle happens in TX, unless Cornyn gets Attorney General. Dewhurst wants Governor bad (hence, why he is more than likely going to succeed in screwing us out of our Feb. 5 primary - Hutchison wins in a walk, if it's a short campaign season, so he's using the State Senate to hold it up). However, on the same thought, if Dewhurst is sure the mighty KBH jumps into the 2010 gov's race, he might have no other choice than to challenge Cornyn in 08.....hmm, maybe not such a preposterous idea.

    3:06 PM, April 30, 2007  

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