Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races

Keeping a close eye on developments in the 2008 U.S. Senate races

Monday, October 29, 2007

Monday Rundown

  • You may notice in the upper left hand corner of the website that we have a new addition to the Expand the Map! ActBlue page: State Representative and Lieutenant Colonel Rick Noriega. Representative/Lt. Col. Noriega has ignited the grassroots and netroots and achieved broad support among the establishment. Noriega is a terrific candidate and understands the meaning of words like "duty" and "service." Further, incumbent Republican and Bush rubber stamp John Cornyn is extremely vulnerable. To recognize State Representative and Lieutenant Colonel Rick Noriega's addition to the Expand the Map! ActBlue page, I would love to see readers of the Guru's blog put up a half dozen contributions to Noriega today. Just six contributions - you can do it! Whether you can contribute $100 or $10, please contribute if you can! Many thanks!

  • Idaho: One notable difference between Democrat Larry LaRocco and Republican Jim Risch: LaRocco makes his own travel arrangements, while Risch has his corporate cronies fly him around in style.

  • New Mexico: Heather Wilson and Dick Cheney sitting in a tree K-I-S-S-I-N-G.

  • New Jersey: The Star-Ledger calls Senator Frank Lautenberg a "key voice" on global warming legislation. (HT: Blue Jersey)

  • Louisiana: David Vitter reminds us that Johns of a feather flock together.

  • Four months ago today, I made seven predictions about the Senate races. Let's revisit those seven:

    1) John Warner, Larry Craig, and Chuck Hagel will all opt against running for re-election to the Senate in 2008.
    Check, check, and check.

    2) Thad Cochran will run for re-election.
    Looks like.

    3) Popular former Governors Jeanne Shaheen and Mark Warner will enter their states' respective Senate races and win.
    Check and check.

    4) At least four incumbent Republican Senators running for re-election will face primary opponents.
    We'll see how strong those primary opponents will be, but it's looking likely. (Go for it Larry Forgy, Joe Repya, and Bill Sizemore!)

    5) Assuming Tim Johnson opts for a re-election bid and his health remains stable, Democratic Senators will repeat their 2006 feat of holding every incumbent seat, yes including Mary Landrieu's.
    We'll know next year...

    6) Either Pete Domenici or Ted Stevens won't be a Senator after January 2009.
    With Pete Domenici's retirement, check.

    7) The DSCC will ouraise the NRSC in every quarter for the remainder of 2007.
    Remains to be seen, but looking good.


    Blogger Peter said...


    Nothing wrong with coming out about how right you were with your predictions! Way to go!

    Do you have any new predictions to make?


    2:58 PM, October 29, 2007  
    Blogger Woody said...

    No one can catch all the diaries and comments at dkos, so I repeat:

    I supported Noriega from the beginning. But I'd held off on throwing my puny contribution against the potential counter-expenditures from Mikal Watts' own fortune. Now that Watts has gracefully withdrawn from this primary, I know that my money to Rick Noriega will go against John Cornyn. I'm in for $100.

    And thanks for adding Noriega to the Expand the Map list!

    3:01 PM, October 29, 2007  
    Blogger JeremiahTheMessiah said...

    With regards to counting on primary challenges... I can't believe Borrasso is getting a free ride through the primary. I'd imagine somebody challenges him, considering he was appointed and all. We'll see. Maybe he'll luck out.

    5:35 PM, October 29, 2007  
    Blogger Tex Sen '08 said...

    Thanks for adding Noriega to your expand the map effort. Texas has many huge and expensive media markets and Cornyn is an idiot whose only gift, as far as I can tell, is raising money so we need every penny we can get to compete with Cornyn in Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Austin, etc., etc., etc.

    7:13 PM, October 29, 2007  
    Blogger youngbuckbear said...


    Sorry to be a pest again with off topic remarks, but wanted to share something with y'all.

    I work at a state facility in Delaware, and today got to meet the politician who was the first person I ever voted for, Senator Thomas Carper of Delaware.

    A pic can be found here:

    Voting, blogging and contributing to the DSCC has been very rewarding on it's own for me, but was very cool to get a chance to meet a real sitting US Senator, especially one whom I and a majority of Delawareans voted to reelect in 2006! :)

    Thought you guys would like, Cheers!


    7:59 PM, October 29, 2007  
    Blogger Senate2008Guru said...

    peter - more predictions coming soon.

    woody - many, many thanks!!!

    jtm - two other appointment finalists, former state Treasurer Cynthia Lummis and former U.S. Attorney Matt Mead are both considering a challenge to Barrasso.

    tex sen - definitely. Much like McConnell in Kentucky, Cornyn's singular strength in the face of lagging approvals is a large war chest - counter that and they're awfully vulnerable.

    ybb - Congrats. It's always a thrill to meet the people we vote for - and to see that they're really just human beings like us mere mortals. :)

    9:37 PM, October 29, 2007  

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