Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races

Keeping a close eye on developments in the 2008 U.S. Senate races

Friday, December 14, 2007

Friday Briefs

  • Mississippi: Disappointing news out of Mississippi as popular former state Attorney General Mike Moore has decided not to run for Senate in 2008. The Clarion-Ledger gives the rundown of possible Democratic candidates:

    Aside from Moore, early speculation for Democratic contenders for the seat centered on former Govs. Ronnie Musgrove and Ray Mabus, as well as former 2nd District U.S. Rep. Mike Espy, former Jackson Mayor Harvey Johnson and state Rep. Erik Fleming, who ran against Lott in 2006.
    A consolation is that polling shows that former Governor Ronnie Musgrove is nearly as strong a candidate as Moore would have been, though Musgrove is also much further to the right.

  • Kentucky: Rumor (yes, rumor for now) has it that state Attorney General Greg Stumbo put out a poll testing him against Mitch McConnll and former GOP KY-Gov nominee Larry Forgy in a hypothetical independent bid for Senate. The numbers - McConnell 34, Stumbo 31, Forgy 27 - could be very encouraging for Forgy as he considers a bid (as either a Republican or an independent). Meanwhile, with Lieutenant Colonel Andrew Horne in the race to oust McConnell, expect VoteVets to devote a lot of energy and attention to the KY-Sen race. Further, Matt Gunterman explains why Horne "has the potential to fire up Kentucky Democrats."

  • Maine: The always-astute Collins Watch catches even more astroturfing on Susan Collins' behalf. Surprising as it may seem (note: thick sarcasm), the Chairman of the University of Maine at Farmington College Republicans lauds Collins in a letter to the editor. Of course, the writer never identifies himself as the Chair of a College Republicans chapter in Maine. I really wish these newspaper editors would do the slightest bit of due diligence.

  • Let's hope all Republican attacks are as smooth and mellifluous as this one:

    I made it to the "fifth day of Christmas" before my shuddering became too much. How far did you make it?

  • If George W. thinks steroids have "sullied" baseball, maybe he'd be interested in further discussing what he personally knew about steroid use in baseball while he was co-owner of the Texas Rangers.

  • Bill O'Reilly is a giant hypocrite and a mind-boggling idiot.


    Blogger Joseph Vogas said...

    I think it would be better for the NRSC not to have Cylon sound effects as they have their words appear at the bottom of the screen at the end of their ad. Seriously, if they want to be associated with Battlestar Galactica villains, fine by me.

    Pretty funny that the Udalls and Al Franken will both PROBABLY be senators-elect a year from now and they choose to go after them.

    Hillary Woodstock head was just creepy though, could be anyone, just the animation was bad.

    1:27 PM, December 14, 2007  
    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    Why would Larry Forgy, who is blasting McConnell for not being Republican enough and calling him a "Louisville liberal", be tempted, in the slightest, to abandon his party and run as an independent?

    2:12 PM, December 14, 2007  
    Blogger NewRed said...

    In case anyone missed it, a major Democratic fund-raiser was recently slapped with a 15-count federal indictment. His contribution list includes Senators: Clinton, Obama, Stabenow, Pryor, Feinstein, Harkin, and Biden among others. Expect this to come up in 2008, especially if Clinton or Obama are the nominee due to their close connections.

    2:19 PM, December 14, 2007  
    Blogger Ajax the Greater said...

    please forgive newred, he has been in a cave during this most recent political season and didnt realize that the norman hsu news is about as new to the scene as the fact that Giuliani's best friend is a pedophilic priest who raped 3 little children, his second-in-command Bernard Kerik has been indicted on 15 counts for bribery and corruption related charges, and that Giuliani forced NY taxpayers to pay the NPYD to protect his mistress and walk her dog.

    oh, and Barack gave back all $2k from hsu many many months ago.

    dont mind newred, he's still working on the traditional media news cycle, and is therefore about 2 months behind the rest of the political world.

    2:56 PM, December 14, 2007  
    Blogger Senate2008Guru said...

    va blogger - If Forgy thinks he has a better chance to win as an independent, why wouldn't he run as an independent. Why not face McConnell in the general when McConnell will be equally focused on fighting off the Democratic nominee rather than face him head-on in the primary where McConnell will focus singularly on him, and, if Forgy wins, he still then has to then beat the Democrat to win the seat? It makes practical sense if he thinks he has a better shot as an independent. Forgy saying as an independent former-Republican that "Republicans aren't fiscally conservative enough - hey, look at big spending Mitch McConnell" could be very powerful.

    newred - Everybody and their mother has heard about Norman Hsu, even though he was just a "bundler" for Clinton and a contributor to a few others. Compare that with Mitt Romney's "national finance committee co-chairman" getting indicted, but that only getting a small fraction of the media coverage that Hsu got. Just more evidence that claims of a "liberal media" are completely bogus.

    2:58 PM, December 14, 2007  
    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    It just seems odd that someone who is effectively one-issue, that McConnell should've supported Ernie Fletcher more, and thus is accusing McConnell of betraying the party, would even consider leaving the party, and thus nullifying everything he's criticized McConnell for.

    It has always seemed to me that Forgy's goal wasn't to win the seat, but to punish McConnell. That would be better served by a primary challenge instead of playing "spoiler" and costing the party he claims to love a seat in the Senate.

    3:07 PM, December 14, 2007  
    Blogger Senate2008Guru said...

    va blogger said: It has always seemed to me that Forgy's goal wasn't to win the seat, but to punish McConnell. That would be better served by a primary challenge instead of playing "spoiler" and costing the party he claims to love a seat in the Senate.

    Ummmm, I guess my response is "duh" - if his goal is to punish McConnell, then why wouldn't he want to play spoiler and cost McConnell his seat? Yeah, it would hurt the GOP (a GOP that turned its back on his buddy Fletcher). But if his goal is to punish McConnell, then he serves his purpose if McConnell loses his seat. Clear?

    3:40 PM, December 14, 2007  
    Blogger NewRed said...

    Ajax -
    Hsu was just indicted on December 4th, so its still relevent.
    Obama did more than take several thousand, he was actively recruiting Hsu as a major fundraiser since Norman pulled in well over a million for Hillary.
    Rudy will have to answer for those issues if he wins the nomination, and this will be among the issues Obama and/or Hillary will have to answer for if either of them are nominated. Issues that come up in the primary ususally return in the general for the respective winners.

    3:56 PM, December 14, 2007  
    Blogger Ajax the Greater said...

    VA Blogger, regarding Forgy running as an Indy, from an article in The Hill last month (sorry I dont know the HTML codes here on blogspot):

    But that could soon change for McConnell, with opponents lining up not only on the Democratic side but from an angry Republican-turned-Independent as well.

    Former Republican gubernatorial candidate Larry Forgy has made no secret of his anger over what he sees as McConnell’s role in dividing the state party by throwing Fletcher under the bus at the onset of his administration’s scandals and backing former Rep. Anne Northup in the GOP primary last spring. He believes this led to Fletcher’s defeat this week.


    the hsu stuff might have some legs if hillary makes it out of the primaries, but will have no potency whatsoever if any of the others do, Obama included. in addition to the fact that he has made it very that he doesnt take lobbyist or PAC money, he returned hsu's cash immediately, and can point to the fact that he has $10s of MILLIONS from small dollar donations that constitute a massive majority of his total donations.

    if you're going to try to come after Obama, you should leave the pea-shooters at home, you're playing with the big dogs now...

    4:38 PM, December 14, 2007  
    Blogger Ajax the Greater said...

    va blogger and S2G, to sum up, from the article in The Hill I referenced above, Forgy has already abandoned his party and become an independent. the question is if he will attempt to rejoin the Publican party prior to running for the seat (if he decides to run).

    Knowing what we know about corrupt thug McConnell and the Publicans in general, chances are that McConnell either (a) gives Forgy a cool $1M and he goes away, or (b) has something on him that he lets him know will be made public (that is, before Flint has a chance to bring out the young boys from McConnell's past days of youthful indiscretion).

    4:44 PM, December 14, 2007  
    Blogger Anthony_Distler said...

    Forgy could spin it, saying that if he were to win the seat, he would switch parties and be a Republican once Congress starts (which is probably what would happen.) If Forgy were to run as an Indy, that's what I see him doing.

    I see it more likely that he runs in the primary, however.

    4:46 PM, December 14, 2007  
    Blogger NewRed said...

    Thanks for the advice, "big dog". :)

    5:52 PM, December 14, 2007  
    Blogger John said...

    I'm curious to see how they would justify blaming "liberals" for $4 a gallon in gas.

    7:12 PM, December 14, 2007  
    Blogger Brian said...

    Mississippi is another in a long string of recruiting disappointments in second tier pick up states. I'll bet that we won't get a strong candidate in that state, just as we haven't in Nebraska, Tennessee, Alaska (though this could change), North Carolina, Oklahoma (sorry Guru, Rice is third tier) Georgia, or Kansas. Add to this list second or third tier candidates in Minnesota, Oregon, and Texas and you'll understand why we're only forecast to gain four to five seats. Huge gains come in years where a party has first tier recruits in states that aren't obvious pick up opportunities. I will say that we're in much better shape than the GOP, but that isn't saying much.

    12:16 AM, December 15, 2007  
    Blogger Glenn said...

    I find myself merely annoyed at their (now-standard) "liberal" bashing (or should I characterize their bashing as liberal in its amount?), because I'm more distracted by the REALLY BAD SINGING going on. Seriously, poor choices of wording as well people singing out-of-tune all over the place make the song an egregion even without the words.

    Also, among those twelve senators, I actually see several people I don't recognize, as well as Johnson, Kerry, Levin, Trent Lott, and Bill O'Reilly.

    2:04 AM, December 15, 2007  

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