Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races

Keeping a close eye on developments in the 2008 U.S. Senate races

Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Wednesday Morning Quick Hits

  • Please, please, please contribute a little if you can. Tom Allen is only $27 away, Larry LaRocco is only $112 away, and Rick Noriega is only $127 away from the next benchmark for each!

  • The conservative National Review's gauging of the 2008 Senate races offers no surprises, relatively favoring Republicans (for instance, the list ranks Arkansas and Alaska as identical levels of competitivity).

  • Kentucky: Draft Forgy gives us a two-fer. First, they spy the Lexington Herald-Leader explicitly encouraging former Republican gubernatorial nominee Larry Forgy to challenge Mitch McConnell to a 2008 Senate primary. Second, they see the Louisville Courier-Journal taking McConnell to task for his hypocrisy on fiscal conservatism (and highlighting conservative think tank The Heritage Foundation, which agrees with that criticism on McConnell).

  • Georgia: I wonder who on Dale Cardwell's staff thought this stunt up.


    Blogger Neal said...

    Everyone seems to agree that Virginia is a Democratic Takeover. However - New Mexico should also be ranked as a Democratic Takeover- since Tom Udall is going to be the Democratic Nominee and is polling way ahead of his GOP rivals- Heather Wilson and Steven Pearce.
    It is highly unlikely that Arkansas,New Jersey,Iowa,or South Dakota will be competitive- The Democratic Incumbents in those states will be getting a free pass.

    Republicans are strongly favored in holding on open seats in Idaho and Nebraska. Republicans will also have an advantage in holding on to Maine and Oregon.

    The tossup states are
    Colorado,New Hampshire,Minnesota,Lousiana
    Mississippi- if Ronnie Musgrove runs otherwise - Republican retention.
    Alaska- if Begich runs

    12:30 PM, January 02, 2008  
    Blogger NewRed said...

    New SUSA Senate numbers are out and there are some interesting findings for Republicans:
    Mitch McConnell improves his approve/disapprove numbers going from 44/47 in November to 51/42 in December. This is either the start of a rebound, or just an outlier.
    Gordon Smith has a decent approve/disapprove spread currently at 50/38, up from 46/44 last August.
    Norm Coleman is the real surprise for me. Despite facing negative ads already, he has been on the approve/disapprove upswing since September's lowly 46/46 to the current 53/39.
    These are positive indicators for those GOP Senators, but I don't believe it means they are totally safe. Their approvals are still low enough that the presidential nominees will have a significant effect.

    2:12 PM, January 02, 2008  
    Blogger Michael Westmoreland-White, Ph.D. said...

    The stunt by Dale Cardwell has pulling more for Rand Knight to take the Dem. primary in Georgia.

    McConnell's small upswing is probably due to his self-publicizing of pork largess. Also, in July, when the last numbers were out, he'd just been seen backing Ernie Fletcher. Time is erasing that blunder. But Horne is going to take McConnell to the cleaners.

    I also think Norm Coleman is on his way out, but Pat Roberts looks to keep his job for lack of a strong Democratic contender. Don't anyone kid ourselves over Mississippi. The GOP will retain MS no matter what because of how "red" it is. It will take longer for the 50 State strategy to begin to work in the Deep South. Maybe by 2010.

    7:04 PM, January 02, 2008  

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