Quick Glance at 2010
(Cross-posted in my DailyKos diary)
Thinking more about Stu Rothenberg's suggestion that Dems aim for a filibuster-proof 60-seat majority by 2010, I figured I would take a quick glance at the Senators up for re-election in 2010. In a nutshell, the geography again looks good for Democrats:
34 Senators: 19 Republicans, 15 Democrats
2004 Election: 22 Bush, 12 Kerry
Average Age: 65.26 Republicans, 63.20 Democrats (61.57 w/o Inouye)
70+ Senators: 8 Republicans, only 4 Democrats
Rookie Senators: 8 Republicans, only 2 Democrats
Rookie Senators Average Age: for GOP it's exactly 57, older than both Dem rookies: Obama (49) & Salazar (55)
Number of Senators who are under 70 but not a rookie (i.e. safest Senators: established, but not likely to retire): only 3 Republicans, 9 Democrats
Senators Receiving Less Than 55% in 2004: 9 Republicans, only 1 Democrat
Senators Receiving Less Than 50% Approval: 4 Republicans, zero Democrats
Senator, Age on Election Day 2010 (11/02/10), Current Term, % Vote in Last Election, Current Approval-Disapproval, 2004 Bush-Kerry %
Evan Bayh (D-IN), 54, Second, 62, 61-29, Bush 60-39
Robert Bennett (R-UT), 77, Third, 69, 58-32, Bush 71-26
Christopher "Kit" Bond (R-MO), 71, Fourth, 56, 51-43, Bush 53-46
Barbara Boxer (D-CA), 69, Third, 58, 55-36, Kerry 55-44
Sam Brownback (R-KS), 54, Second, 69, 53-37, Bush 62-37
Jim Bunning (R-KY), 79, Second, 51, 44-47, Bush 60-40
Richard Burr (R-NC), 54, First, 52, 44-42, Bush 56-44
Tom Coburn (R-OK), 62, First, 53, 50-38, Bush 66-34
Mike Crapo (R-ID), 59, Second, 99, 61-29, Bush 69-30
Jim DeMint (R-SC), 59, First, 54, 51-36, Bush 58-41
Christopher Dodd (D-CT), 66, Fifth, 66, 56-36, Kerry 54-44
Byron Dorgan (D-ND), 68, Third, 68, 75-21, Bush 63-36
Russell Feingold (D-WI), 57, Third, 56, 54-38, Kerry 50-49
Chuck Grassley (R-IA), 77, Fifth, 70, 65-27, Bush 50-49
Judd Gregg (R-NH), 63, Third, 66, 50-40, Kerry 50-49
Daniel Inouye (D-HI), 86, Eighth, 76, 68-26, Kerry 54-45
Johnny Isakson (R-GA), 65, First, 58, 51-36, Bush 58-41
Patrick Leahy (D-VT), 70, Sixth, 71, 71-25, Kerry 59-39
Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), 50, Second, 56, 55-37, Bush 54-45
Mel Martinez (R-FL), 64, First, 50, 43-46, Bush 52-47
John McCain (R-AZ), 74, Fourth, 77, 61-34, Bush 55-45
Barbara Mikulski (D-MD), 74, Fourth, 65, 57-35, Kerry 56-43
Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), 53, First, 49, 54-41, Bush 62-35
Patty Murray (D-WA), 60, Third, 55, 55-37, Kerry 53-46
Barack Obama (D-IL), 49, First, 70, 71-22, Kerry 55-45
Harry Reid (D-NV), 70, Fourth, 61, 50-42, Bush 51-48
Ken Salazar (D-CO), 55, First, 51, 56-36, Bush 52-47
Charles Schumer (D-NY), 59, Second, 71, 60-33, Kerry 58-41
Richard Shelby (R-AL), 76, Fourth, 68, 60-31, Bush 63-37
Arlen Specter (R-PA), 80, Fifth, 53, 52-41, Kerry 51-49
John Thune (R-SD), 49, First, 51, 61-36, Bush 60-38
David Vitter (R-LA), 50, First, 51, 66-28, Bush 57-42
George Voinovich (R-OH), 74, Second, 64, 48-44, Bush 51-49
Ron Wyden (D-OR), 61, Second, 63, 59-33, Kerry 52-48
Top Ten Targets in 2010 Appear to Be (in alphabetical order by Senator):
Kit Bond (R-MO): Possible retirement, low approvals, McAskill (D) edged out incumbent Talent (R) in 2006
Jim Bunning (R-KY): Probable retirement, low approvals, almost lost in 2004 against token opposition due to mental health concerns - however, he is so likely to retire that the KY-GOP would probably have stronger opposition for a likely open seat
Richard Burr (R-NC): Freshman senator, low approvals, small margin of victory in 2004 - race against Elizabeth Dole in 2008 will be bellwether for Burr in 2010
Tom Coburn (R-OK): Much like Burr in NC - freshman senator, low approvals, tighter race in 2004 than election results indicate - race against James Inhofe in 2008 will be bellwether for Coburn in 2010
Chuck Grassley (R-IA): Possible-to-probable retirement despite high approvals, hates being in the minority party (accounts had him in tears when Jim Jeffords left the GOP and temporarily gave majority status to the Democrats), Iowa has trended blue very recently
Judd Gregg (R-NH): Low approvals, NH has trended very blue over the last couple election cycles - race against John Sununu in 2008 will be bellwether for Gregg in 2010
Mel Martinez (R-FL): Freshman senator despite being in his 60s, very low approvals, hands full with managing the RNC
Lisa Murkowski (R-AK): Freshman senator, low approvals, father was bounced from the Governorship in a GOP primary in 2006
Arlen Specter (R-PA): Possible-to-probable retirement, low approvals, oldest Republican up for re-election in 2010, difficult battles in 2004 in both primary and general elections, Bob Casey (D) solidly knocked out Rick Santorum (R), PA has gotten bluer over the last several years
George Voinovich (R-OH): Much like Specter in PA, possible retirement, low approvals, Ohio has developed an anti-GOP sentiment due to corruption scandals, Sherrod Brown (D) solidly knocked out Mike DeWine (R) in 2006
Thinking more about Stu Rothenberg's suggestion that Dems aim for a filibuster-proof 60-seat majority by 2010, I figured I would take a quick glance at the Senators up for re-election in 2010. In a nutshell, the geography again looks good for Democrats:
34 Senators: 19 Republicans, 15 Democrats
2004 Election: 22 Bush, 12 Kerry
Average Age: 65.26 Republicans, 63.20 Democrats (61.57 w/o Inouye)
70+ Senators: 8 Republicans, only 4 Democrats
Rookie Senators: 8 Republicans, only 2 Democrats
Rookie Senators Average Age: for GOP it's exactly 57, older than both Dem rookies: Obama (49) & Salazar (55)
Number of Senators who are under 70 but not a rookie (i.e. safest Senators: established, but not likely to retire): only 3 Republicans, 9 Democrats
Senators Receiving Less Than 55% in 2004: 9 Republicans, only 1 Democrat
Senators Receiving Less Than 50% Approval: 4 Republicans, zero Democrats
Senator, Age on Election Day 2010 (11/02/10), Current Term, % Vote in Last Election, Current Approval-Disapproval, 2004 Bush-Kerry %
Evan Bayh (D-IN), 54, Second, 62, 61-29, Bush 60-39
Robert Bennett (R-UT), 77, Third, 69, 58-32, Bush 71-26
Christopher "Kit" Bond (R-MO), 71, Fourth, 56, 51-43, Bush 53-46
Barbara Boxer (D-CA), 69, Third, 58, 55-36, Kerry 55-44
Sam Brownback (R-KS), 54, Second, 69, 53-37, Bush 62-37
Jim Bunning (R-KY), 79, Second, 51, 44-47, Bush 60-40
Richard Burr (R-NC), 54, First, 52, 44-42, Bush 56-44
Tom Coburn (R-OK), 62, First, 53, 50-38, Bush 66-34
Mike Crapo (R-ID), 59, Second, 99, 61-29, Bush 69-30
Jim DeMint (R-SC), 59, First, 54, 51-36, Bush 58-41
Christopher Dodd (D-CT), 66, Fifth, 66, 56-36, Kerry 54-44
Byron Dorgan (D-ND), 68, Third, 68, 75-21, Bush 63-36
Russell Feingold (D-WI), 57, Third, 56, 54-38, Kerry 50-49
Chuck Grassley (R-IA), 77, Fifth, 70, 65-27, Bush 50-49
Judd Gregg (R-NH), 63, Third, 66, 50-40, Kerry 50-49
Daniel Inouye (D-HI), 86, Eighth, 76, 68-26, Kerry 54-45
Johnny Isakson (R-GA), 65, First, 58, 51-36, Bush 58-41
Patrick Leahy (D-VT), 70, Sixth, 71, 71-25, Kerry 59-39
Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), 50, Second, 56, 55-37, Bush 54-45
Mel Martinez (R-FL), 64, First, 50, 43-46, Bush 52-47
John McCain (R-AZ), 74, Fourth, 77, 61-34, Bush 55-45
Barbara Mikulski (D-MD), 74, Fourth, 65, 57-35, Kerry 56-43
Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), 53, First, 49, 54-41, Bush 62-35
Patty Murray (D-WA), 60, Third, 55, 55-37, Kerry 53-46
Barack Obama (D-IL), 49, First, 70, 71-22, Kerry 55-45
Harry Reid (D-NV), 70, Fourth, 61, 50-42, Bush 51-48
Ken Salazar (D-CO), 55, First, 51, 56-36, Bush 52-47
Charles Schumer (D-NY), 59, Second, 71, 60-33, Kerry 58-41
Richard Shelby (R-AL), 76, Fourth, 68, 60-31, Bush 63-37
Arlen Specter (R-PA), 80, Fifth, 53, 52-41, Kerry 51-49
John Thune (R-SD), 49, First, 51, 61-36, Bush 60-38
David Vitter (R-LA), 50, First, 51, 66-28, Bush 57-42
George Voinovich (R-OH), 74, Second, 64, 48-44, Bush 51-49
Ron Wyden (D-OR), 61, Second, 63, 59-33, Kerry 52-48
Top Ten Targets in 2010 Appear to Be (in alphabetical order by Senator):
Kit Bond (R-MO): Possible retirement, low approvals, McAskill (D) edged out incumbent Talent (R) in 2006
Jim Bunning (R-KY): Probable retirement, low approvals, almost lost in 2004 against token opposition due to mental health concerns - however, he is so likely to retire that the KY-GOP would probably have stronger opposition for a likely open seat
Richard Burr (R-NC): Freshman senator, low approvals, small margin of victory in 2004 - race against Elizabeth Dole in 2008 will be bellwether for Burr in 2010
Tom Coburn (R-OK): Much like Burr in NC - freshman senator, low approvals, tighter race in 2004 than election results indicate - race against James Inhofe in 2008 will be bellwether for Coburn in 2010
Chuck Grassley (R-IA): Possible-to-probable retirement despite high approvals, hates being in the minority party (accounts had him in tears when Jim Jeffords left the GOP and temporarily gave majority status to the Democrats), Iowa has trended blue very recently
Judd Gregg (R-NH): Low approvals, NH has trended very blue over the last couple election cycles - race against John Sununu in 2008 will be bellwether for Gregg in 2010
Mel Martinez (R-FL): Freshman senator despite being in his 60s, very low approvals, hands full with managing the RNC
Lisa Murkowski (R-AK): Freshman senator, low approvals, father was bounced from the Governorship in a GOP primary in 2006
Arlen Specter (R-PA): Possible-to-probable retirement, low approvals, oldest Republican up for re-election in 2010, difficult battles in 2004 in both primary and general elections, Bob Casey (D) solidly knocked out Rick Santorum (R), PA has gotten bluer over the last several years
George Voinovich (R-OH): Much like Specter in PA, possible retirement, low approvals, Ohio has developed an anti-GOP sentiment due to corruption scandals, Sherrod Brown (D) solidly knocked out Mike DeWine (R) in 2006
posted by Senate2008Guru | 2:39 PM
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