Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races

Keeping a close eye on developments in the 2008 U.S. Senate races

Tuesday, April 17, 2007

Numbers, Numbers, Numbers

  • Polling indicates that the American people trust Democrats more than Bush on Iraq, 58% to 33%. With Bush's mismanagement of Iraq, it's no wonder that, for the first time, a majority of Americans "believe the United States will lose the war in Iraq, and a new high — two-thirds — say the war was not worth fighting." Someone might want to drop John Sununu, Norm Coleman, Susan Collins, Elizabeth Dole, and the rest of the McConnell Republicans a note.

  • Maine: At the end of 2006, Congressman Tom Allen had a cash-on-hand advantage over Susan Collins, roughly $500,000 to $435,000. In Q1, Allen raised $393,000, solid for a House member (though below what I'd like to see for a Senate bid), bringing his cash-on-hand to $812,000. Meanwhile, Collins raised about double Allen, $832,075, an OK number but not overwhelming by any means, bringing her cash-on-hand to about $1.2 million. I'd expect Allen to get a fundraising bump once he formally announces, which I hope will be soon. I'd hate to see another large fundraising disparity in Q2.

  • Idaho: Larry Craig's spokesman seems to be pushing back the timeline for Craig making an announcement on retirement vs. re-election bid. Less than two weeks ago, the line was "this summer" on an announcement. The Idaho Statesman now puts it at "late summer or fall" according to Craig spokesman Dan Whiting. Infer from this what you will.

  • Alabama and Texas: Bush rubber stamps Jeff Sessions and John Cornyn both had OK-to-solid fundraising quarters. Sessions took in $545,000, bringing his cash-on-hand to $1.87 million, and Cornyn apparently took in about $940,000. In both of these states, it is highly unlikely that a Democratic opponent will out-fundraise these Bush rubber stamps, so it will take people-power. Commissioner Ron Sparks has momentum building, if he chooses to enter. I'd like to see more movement out of Texas, especially with Cornyn's lackluster approval rating.

  • New Mexico: I agree with New Mexico FBIHOP that rumors about Governor Bill Richardson running for Senate against Pajamas Pete Domenici if Richardson's Presidential bid doesn't gain traction will probably not materialize into fact. Richardson would be a no-brainer top pick for Secretary of State in a Democratic administration, if not Vice President. I would be very surprised, albeit pleasantly, if Richardson opted for a Senate bid.

  • Alaska: Sit down before viewing this. It is that funny. The Daily Show offers Senator Ted Stevens' thoughts on the White House's missing e-mails.


    Blogger Ari said...

    Richardson is too good for the senate. A guy with his experience needs to be part of the next Democratic administration, taking a leading role in cleaning up the disastrous foreign policy mess Bush has made. My hope is that the attorney-firing scandal taints Domenici and Wilson to such a degree that Steve Pearce is the de-facto Repub candidate, all but hand-delivering the victory to us with whomever we run.

    12:49 PM, April 17, 2007  
    Blogger LP said...

    If Pearce runs, it will be between Pearce and Udall, and I expect Udall would win that.

    But if Domenici stays in, the only man who can beat him in New Mexico -- unless things get much worse for Domenici, as they might -- is Richardson.

    1:33 PM, April 17, 2007  

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