Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races

Keeping a close eye on developments in the 2008 U.S. Senate races

Thursday, April 12, 2007

Eyebrows Sufficiently Raised

  • The Guru wishes Governor Jon Corzine a speedy recovery. The Governor sustained injuries that were not life-threatening in a car accident this afternoon, resulting in leg and rib fractures that were attended to surgically this evening.

  • Virginia: Both The Hill and WaPo are confirming that, yeah, John Warner raised only a measly $500 in Q1. Is there any possible explanation for this other than an imminent retirement announcement? Seriously - anything? Is he trying to lull the DSCC into a false sense of security? I'm open to suggestions before J. Warner shoots straight up the Retirement Watch charts. Paging Mark Warner!

  • Louisiana: With Bobby Jindal running for Governor and Jay Dardenne already significantly behind Senator Mary Landrieu in polling, the speculatively nominal GOP frontrunner to challenge Landrieu is GOP Rep. Richard Baker. Say, how much did Rep. Baker raise in Q1? Just $94,000, with only $66,000 cash-on-hand. Pretty weak. I'll say it again: given that Senator Landrieu is supposed to be the Democrats' most vulnerable incumbent, she's looking pretty secure at the moment.

  • Arkansas: Speaking of fundraising, Democratic Senator Mark Pryor took in $1.74M in Q1, with a cash-on-hand total clocking in at over $2M. How strong is that? To put it in perspective, the Morning News article notes that "Tim Hutchinson had $600,000 in his campaign bank account in 2001, the year before his loss to Pryor." The article also mentions that former Governor Mike Huckabee only managed to raise $500K for his Presidential bid in Q1. Seems like a very strong showing for Senator Pryor.

  • Alabama: The Birmingham News reports on Ron Sparks' recent liveblog on Daily Kos. I ask you, how often does a paper of record report on a liveblog? I take it as a sign of growing enthusiasm. (HT: Sack Sessions)

  • Maine: Remember Collins Watch calling out Two-Faced Susan Collins for her hypocrisy on out-of-state money funding in-state political activity? Think Progress now picks up the ball and runs with it. Two-Faced Susan will have a lot of duplicity to answer for once Congressman Tom Allen officially enters the race.

  • North Carolina: Remember Liddy Dole dragging her feet on "the Navy’s plan to put an outlying landing field [OLF] near an important wildlife refuge in northeastern North Carolina"? Well, in the poll that showed Dole under 50% and with only a relatively meager lead against Congressman Brad Miller, there was also a question regarding support for the OLF. 47% oppose, 32% support. Whoops - what's that sound? It's the sound of Liddy Dole missing another opportunity to both demonstrate leadership and represent the wishes of her constituency at the same time.

  • New Hampshire: Blue Hampshire enjoys watching Mayor Steve Marchand put the smackdown on Sprintin' John Sununu. I like it, too.

  • New Mexico: More home-state bad press for Pajamas Pete Domenici? You betcha. This time in the pages of the Las Cruces Sun-News.


    Blogger Blue South said...

    OLF. Its pretty interesting. Even though Burr said it wasnt his job 2 weeks ago, he is now opposed to it. Dole is still "concerned" but doesnt really have a problem with it.

    By the way, if she didnt care more about John Warner than North Carolina this thing could have been dead a long time ago.

    Oh, and considering that the NRA, Citizens for a Sound Economy, the Sierra Club and the Audobon Society all oppose the OLF, I bet that the more info people see on it the more opposition there will be.

    11:26 PM, April 12, 2007  
    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    John Warner:

    "As I have said consistently, I am seriously considering running again for the Senate"

    Lieberman backs Collins for re-election. That bolsters Collins' record as a moderate and centrist-minded Republican in a state that has a strong Independent bent.

    9:32 AM, April 13, 2007  
    Blogger Senate2008Guru said...

    Really, va blogger? Really? Do you like having your head in the sand? Have you EVER heard of a campaign for anything anywhere ever raising practically nothing for an entire quarter? Imagine what a Senator has to do to avoid contributions. Just by having a mailing address, without soliciting, a sitting Senator is bound to receive a few thousand bucks a quarter. Think about it. Exercise some independent thought.

    As for Lieberman endorsing Collins, two responses:
    1) Wasn't Collins just bashing out of state influences in Maine? I guess it only applies when the influence is negative for her...
    2) At this point, Lieberman ain't a "moderate/centrist" - after McCain, he is the #1 pro-unlimited-Iraq-War Senator, and he will only muddy Collins' record on Iraq. I hope Lieberman makes campaign appearances with Collins so that the Dems can nail her on her real Iraq record.

    10:36 AM, April 13, 2007  
    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    You might want to apply the brakes there for a second, S2G. All I did was post the most recent news article concerning the topic, since I thought you might be interested, seeing as how you regularly update your blog with the most recent news about these topics. I didn't make a judgement one way or another.

    As for Collins, out-of-state money from special interest groups is vastly different from endorsements. You know this.

    And Lieberman's endorsement has its ups and downs. But given that Maine recently elected an Indpendent Governor, and that Lieberman votes consistently Democratic on domestic issues, his endorsement will go along way to counter the inevitable but false accusations of Collins' having anything other than a moderate voting record.

    10:53 AM, April 13, 2007  
    Blogger Senate2008Guru said...

    Well, you didn't just post a link; you also posted a quote that contradicts a very obvious non-verbal statement. Do you actually think John Warner is running for re-election after raising only $500 in Q1? Seriously.

    Is out-of-state money different from out-of-state endorsements? Cuz Collins also takes out-of-state money after criticizing the use of out-of-state money. Hypocrite much?

    And Lieberman's endorsement will go a long way, will it? You're kidding, right? Lieberman + McCain = Iraq all the time. It will be a drag on Collins once the real campaign begins.

    11:09 AM, April 13, 2007  
    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    Yes, I posted a quote from the news article, because the quote is what's relevent to the news you're covering. I'm trying to help you out by pointing you to news articles you might not have seen yet. Calm down there, tiger.

    And I said that Lieberman's endorsement has its ups and downs. Yes, a focus on Iraq is one possibility. So is the confirmation that Susan Collins' has a moderate voting record.

    11:37 AM, April 13, 2007  
    Blogger Senate2008Guru said...

    va blogger - OK, I see, you live in make-believe world.

    Lieberman has become pretty synonymous with support for an unlimited credit card for Bush's Iraq Fiasco. He is all about Iraq. So how will that help Collins look at all moderate? How? Explain. Please.

    11:54 AM, April 13, 2007  
    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    How am I living in a make-believe world? I agreed with you that a focus on Iraq is a possibility of Lieberman's endorsement. My point is simply that there is more than just one issue in the country today.

    How can I convince you that its okay to respond to a post of mine without hostility? The world will continue to spin on its axis, I promise you.

    12:14 PM, April 13, 2007  
    Blogger Senate2008Guru said...

    You live in make-believe world because, while there is more than just one issue in the country today, there is not more than one issue that Joe Lieberman is identified with anymore. Lieberman is Iraq. If Collins wants to put Iraq front-and-center, great, Lieberman's the guy to help her do that. But I don't think it's a winning electoral strategy for a Republican in a purple-to-blue state.

    Want to convince me that an absence of hostility is OK? Quit accusing me of lying when I use a Senator's exact words or simply offer an opinion you disagree with. Quit whining all the time. Quit bellyaching that this blog's readers don't fully appreciate your deep, thoughtful, insightful points. Quit being a crybaby. That would help. Oh yeah, and quit misspelling so many words - just a pet peeve of mine.

    12:21 PM, April 13, 2007  
    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    Just because you don't associate Joe Lieberman with anything but Iraq doesn't mean that everybody else feels the same way. It certainly doesn't feel the voters of Connecticut, a majority of whom oppose the war and oppose Bush but voted for Lieberman, feel that way. And it doesn't mean that the voters of Maine feel that way.

    I always forget, though, that you know the voters better than they themselves. You know that they won't appreciate Susan Collins running for a third-term, despite the fact that 3 out of 4 Maine voters approve of the job she's doing. And they won't be able to see Lieberman's endorsement as anything other than a statement on the Iraq War, because they're as one-dimensional as you are.

    I've only accused you of lying twice, but I can tell that it had a profound impact on you. I "whine" about your posts as much as you "whine" about mine--that much is evident given the number of times you've begged me to stop posting. And I don't have a problem with the other readers of this blog, only you, who ignores valid points I make in an attempt to foster a discussion, then turns around and complains that there's never any discussion, all while acting like the school bully who doesn't like that the new kid is sitting at his lunch table.

    Yet, despite all of that, I'm still able to make comments directed towards you that aren't full of condecension, hostility, and hatred. Its amazing how far just a touch of common decency goes in making your arguments presentable.

    12:33 PM, April 13, 2007  
    Blogger Blue South said...

    va blogger, do you mind stepping down from your high horse for a few minutes? I am having trouble hearing you, you are just too far away.

    1:09 PM, April 13, 2007  
    Blogger Senate2008Guru said...


    Here va blogger calls me a liar for using Liddy Dole's exact words.

    Here va blogger fabricates what I'd do if somebody got into a race.

    Here va blogger lies about my "seeing only Republican weaknesses" or somesuch, despite posting several times on the strength of specific Republicans.

    Here va blogger misrepresents Mike Ciresi's position on self-financing, calling it a pledge (which, yeah, means promise).

    Here va blogger goes from one end of the spectrum to the other on Gordon Smith's support or lack there of for earmarks.

    Here, in all of his non-partisan objectivity, va blogger claims that Norm Coleman's 47-43 approve-disapprove is "solid."

    Here va blogger calls me moronic. Very mature.

    Here va blogger says that I'm a "know-nothing" who can't be trusted.

    Here va blogger calls me a "dumb oaf" - very mature once again.

    Here va blogger rules out DeFazio as a possible candidate against Smith. A lot of foresight there.

    Here and here va blogger gets the Club for Growth's record and personnel all wrong.

    Here va blogger really let's it rip: "You're a hack, and lack the ability of objective analysis, which is why you continue to make worthless points and back it up with the weakest of evidence."

    va blogger - I believe you were saying something about comments "that aren't full of condecension, hostility, and hatred" or something like that...

    1:12 PM, April 13, 2007  
    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    I never said I didn't ever make comments like that. I make them as often as you do.

    The difference is that you only know how to respond to me with hostility. Whereas, from time to time, I manage to inject common decency into my posts.

    Take, for example, this thread, where I post two news articles that you hadn't covered yet. Not that uncommon practice; people all the time post news articles here. Yet your response to me posting these articles was one of hostility and contempt, despite the fact that nothing in my post was objectionable or wrong.

    I don't mind that 100% of your responses towards me are bathed in open contempt (despite the fact that the reciprocal of that is not true). I can easily handle the words of an anonymous malcontent, a feat you haven't been able to master yet. It just strikes me as funny that you dismiss my words as "whining", when you do the exact same thing to me.

    1:24 PM, April 13, 2007  
    Blogger Senate2008Guru said...

    va blogger - Before this week, I repeatedly gave you the benefit of the doubt and unwarranted politeness despite your repeated insults. But now I'm calling your idiocy what it is.

    Oh, and I see - you're allowed to make insulting comments as long as it's not 100% of the time. Please re-read all of the comments you made that I linked to, and then ask yourself why anything you post on this blog should be given any respect?

    va blogger, you have nothing by negative words for me and this blog, but you still read it seemingly every ten minutes. That makes you either an addict or a loser. Either way, get help.

    1:35 PM, April 13, 2007  
    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    Its not a matter of "allowed to", and its never been. I'm not sure where you got that notion from. I simply did not expect you to react so negatively to me posting a news article. I didn't know such a thing would offend you like it did. Now that I know, I will be prepared to be showered with insults anytime I post, no matter what I post. That, apparently, is the "progressive" way.

    I understand that you don't like to be challenged. If my challenging you leads you to not respect me, then so be it. I think I can manage to live without your respect.

    And I disagree that I have nothing but negative words. Just because I think you're a one-dimensional hack with obvious biases and sub-par analytical skills doesn't mean you don't do a good job of what you do. You post biased, one-dimensional, self-serving analysis better than most. Whether that's due to talent, or do to most people possessing a sense of shame, I think is immaterial. The point is that your blog is regularly on top of happenings in the Senate races, even if your perspective of them is horribly skewed.

    I look forward to your response, where no doubt you'll whine that I'm whining again.

    1:46 PM, April 13, 2007  
    Blogger Senate2008Guru said...

    I'm just curious how you're able to breathe with your head so far up your ass. Do you use a snorkel?

    And do keep checking this blog that you appear to hate every ten minutes. That in no way makes you a loser.

    I'm all done here. Feel free to get the last word and misrepresent whatever anybody else says all you want.

    1:57 PM, April 13, 2007  

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