Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races

Keeping a close eye on developments in the 2008 U.S. Senate races

Saturday, September 08, 2007

Saturday Quick Hits

  • Nebraska: The Omaha World-Herald and Lincoln Journal Star are both reporting that Chuck Hagel will announce on Monday that he not only won't run for President in 2008 but will also retire from the Senate at the end of his current term. Any bets on whether or not former Senator Bob Kerrey will announce his candidacy before the end of the month? And any other bets on how many Republican candidates will enter the primary? We have the possibility of at least Jon Bruning, Hal Daub, Tony Raimondo and even Mike Johanns.

  • Colorado: "Backwards" Bob Schaffer's own commissioned poll of his race against Congressman Mark Udall has him down outside the margin of error, 45-40. If Schaffer's own numbers have him down five points, then I can't wait for the non-partisan numbers!

  • Idaho: Lots of people want to be Idaho's new Senator.

  • Oklahoma: Democratic State Senator Andrew Rice may be in a unique position to highlight the failures of George W. Bush and Jim "In Denial" Inhofe on Iraq and the War on Terror given his personal experience:

    Rice, whose brother was killed in the attack on the World Trade Center on Sept. 11, 2001, calls the decision to go to war in Iraq "a very rash and dangerous thing to do."

    He said the country is "bogged down in a war that didn't have anything to do with the murder of my brother." He says the 9-11 terrorists "are not in Iraq and they never have been."
    Sad but very, very true.

  • Maine: Finally, the Bangor Daily News demonstrates some semblance of responsibility and has two editors, one with ties to Susan Collins' campaign and one with ties to Tom Allen's campaign, recuse themselves from campaign coverage. Was that so hard, BDN?


    Blogger JeremiahTheMessiah said...

    Something more telling on the possibility of a Bob Kerrey candidacy.

    Former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D-NE) "stepped to the brink of a possible 2008 Senate bid," the Lincoln Journal-Star reports.
    "Kerrey placed a conference call to New School University trustees in New York City to inform them he may be returning to Nebraska. Kerrey said he has become convinced Sen. Chuck Hagel will not be a candidate for a third term next year."

    Said Kerry: "I am more and more certain Chuck is not going to seek re-election, and my intention is to make my decision before he makes an announcement."
    End Quote

    Full Article (Although that was most of it) Here: 8/23/kerrey_readies_possible_senate_bid. html

    It is also worth noting that that article talking about Bob Kerrey knowing Hagel would retire and possibly moving back to Nebraska was from late August. Well before the Hagel retirement was a sure-thing here.

    11:48 AM, September 08, 2007  
    Blogger BruinKid said...

    No, wait, someone doesn't understand margin of error in the Colorado race. The MOE is basically +/- 4% (3.9% to be exact). To be "outside" the margin of error, you need to have greater than TWICE the margin of error. A 45%-40% lead is still within the margin of error.

    What that means is Udall can be getting anywhere from 41% to 49%, and Schaffer is anywhere from 36% to 44%. Because those two intervals overlap, technically, Schaffer could actually be leading 44%-41% in that poll of his. Probably not, but this is considered "within" the margin of error.

    If Udall were leading by 48%-40% or better, then the intervals would not overlap, and Udall's lead would truly be "outside" the margin of error.

    And of course, all of this is being said at a 95% confidence level. :-)

    1:23 AM, September 10, 2007  

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