Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races

Keeping a close eye on developments in the 2008 U.S. Senate races

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Tuesday Briefs

  • Yesterday Lieutenant Colonel, State Representative, and Senate candidate Rick Noriega was added to the Expand the Map! ActBlue page and the Guru set a modest goal of six new contributions for Rick Noriega. I'm disappointed to say that we only got three contributions in. That makes the Guru very sad. So let's see if we can't get three more contributions this afternoon! Please contribute if you can. Every dollar goes toward dislodging John Cornyn from the U.S. Senate - that should be thanks enough!

  • North Carolina: State Senator Kay Hagan will enter the 2008 Senate race to unseat Elizabeth Dole, she announced today. Hopefully Hagan and Jim Neal will have a spirited, positive, issue-based primary where the only negative words will be for Dole's record (or lack thereof) and where they use the primary to raise their statewide name ID.

  • Maine: Tom Allen will have labor kicking butt for him with the MSEA-SEIU behind him and now with the Maine AFL-CIO having voted unanimously to back him.

  • New Mexico: Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez' own polling has him in a statistical dead heat with the ethically compromised and out-of-touch Republican Heather Wilson. (While it's Chavez' own polling that has him in a statistical dead heat, independent polling has Congressman Udall comfortably defeating all comers. Draft Tom Udall!)

  • Kentucky: Mitch McConnell's ongoing lackluster poll numbers must have him worried. He's already buying TV ads more than a year before Election Day!

  • Idaho: Another difference between Democrat Larry LaRocco and Republican Jim Risch: LaRocco wants to expand Internet access to rural areas, understanding the web's potential as a tool for education and connectivity, while Risch simply doesn't get the Net.

  • South Dakota: Senator Tim Johnson has a fantastic re-election campaign staff.

  • Tennessee: Mike McWherter for Senate has a Facebook group up.

  • Louisiana: David Vitter finally settled his federal election law violations from his 2004 Senate race. Now if he could only take real responsibility for soliciting prostitutes over, what appears to be, a number of years.

  • California: Looking ahead to 2010, a new poll sees a statistical dead heat between Senator Barbara Boxer and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

  • Colorado: Also looking ahead to 2010, Presidential candidate (I guess...) Tom Tancredo says that, should his Prez campaign not end victoriously, he'd consider a Senate challenge to Senator Ken Salazar.

  • Here's the latest reason to dislike the jerks who run Clear Channel.


    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    McConnell buying TV air time is more likely due to the dozen or so national Democratic groups who have already run TV ads targetting him this year.

    2:06 PM, October 30, 2007  
    Blogger NewRed said...

    NM: SUSA also has Wilson only narrowly leading Chavez and Madrid while Congressman Pearce has a healthy lead on the mayor and the former AG. Maybe Pearce isn't too conservative for NM after all.

    MA: With the Red Sox winning the World Series, pitcher (and Republican) Curt Schilling has finished his contract with Boston. Since they wouldn't give him an extension past 2007, which he definitely wanted, he may pass on being a free agent and take on John Kerry. Obviously, its a very small chance given his previous statements, but with his personal wealth, extreme popularity in Kerry's Boston base, and with Kerry not having had a good political week since the 2004 Democratic convention, its the best the GOP can hope for. I did notice that someone already reserved a site for Curt. The question is, who owns it?

    2010 could be a tough year for the Democrats. With the probability being that they will win the White House and keep Congress, the first off year election is historically damaging for the party in power (with the exception of the Republicans in 2002). Not only do the Democrats have to worry about Boxer falling to Arnold, but Harry Reid is concerned about his about his re-election chances amid falling poll numbers. The backlash of a major 2009 tax increase probably won't help.

    2:47 PM, October 30, 2007  
    Blogger Johnny C said...


    I think it is most likely due to the success of the ads of those Democratic groups. You can not deny that his latest approve/disapprove numbers were way down and certainly in the danger zone. If he is running ads I suspect he does not think the poll is an outlier but that, for at least a significant number of voters, the messages in the Democratic ads is resonating.

    He has a ton of cash so a small ad buy now is not a huge concern for him but it is a sign that there is some vulnerability there.

    We will have to wait and see how vulnerable he really is and whether or not the Kentucky Dems have anyone to take advantage of his vulnerability.

    2:47 PM, October 30, 2007  
    Blogger JeremiahTheMessiah said...

    Newred, I hate to say it, but there was a Republican on here a few diaries ago saying that Udall has been hiding his congressional record, and he's way far to the left of New Mexico. I'm guessing the same (except reverse) could be said about Pearce. Obviously it doesn't hurt him now, but once the campaign starts rolling, mud will be thrown from the right (at Udall - If he gets in) and from the left (At Pearce from Wilson and/or Chavez) because of them being in the Representatives.

    It's interesting how the establishment is supporting Wilson when Pearce polls better. Maybe they'd agree that he's too far to the right for New Mexico. That's my guess, if you have any other reasoning or ideas, feel free to add your two cents.

    3:02 PM, October 30, 2007  
    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    There's also only so much stock you can put in a SurveyUSA poll taken right after Domenici's retirement. Certainly, in my mind, not enough to make broad strategy decisions.

    3:36 PM, October 30, 2007  
    Blogger Kingsville Democrat said...

    I'm glad you put Noriega on the list of candidates who need help. Noriega is fixing to get outspent by 10 or 15 to 1. It'll be a slaughter if we don't raise money like we mean it. Thanks!

    5:13 PM, October 30, 2007  
    Blogger boadicea said...

    We can't have a sad guru. That's no good.

    So, I'll put in a few dollars more. Gotta get a new U.S. Senator in Texas, and Rick Noriega is the real deal.

    Bu-bye, Junior John!!!!

    6:24 PM, October 30, 2007  
    Blogger Jake said...

    I agree -- a sad guru is not good. So I just sent $100.

    7:13 PM, October 30, 2007  
    Blogger Matthew said...

    Contrary to newred's post, I like the Democratic Senatorial prospets in 2010... there are rumblings about retirements from Bunning, Grassley, McCain, Voinovich, and Gregg (which would seriously make New England all Blue)... and I would like our chances in those open seat races... someone has said that Dorgan may retire from North Dakota, but seriously doubt that (I am from North Dakota and the people like him... and there would be serious pressure from both the DNC and the DSCC for him to run for another term). And I like our chances against Tom Coburn, Arlen Specter (which would continue the blue trend from New England to the Mid-Atlantic), Kit Bond, and John Thune (who will lose to Stephanie Herseth Sandin)... I feel very, very good about 2010.

    6:06 PM, October 31, 2007  

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