Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races

Keeping a close eye on developments in the 2008 U.S. Senate races

Monday, December 03, 2007

Monday Quick Hits

  • The Mitch McConnell Republicans are now the filibustering-est, most obstructionist Senate minority in history.

  • Nebraska: Word is that businessman Tony Raimondo will change his party affiliation to Democratic in the very near future in order to run for Senate in 2008 as a Democrat.

  • Kentucky: DMKY gives us a twofer. First, internal polling by state AG Greg Stumbo reportedly has him even with Mitch McConnell in Louisville. Second, the Jim Bunning retirement rumors are starting awfully early.

  • Texas: State Representative and Lieutenant Colonel Rick Noriega is making his 2008 Senate bid official.

  • New Mexico: MyDD's Singer has a terrific interview with Congressman Tom Udall up. They discuss such topics as the Draft Udall movement and legislative goals.


    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    Louisville is one of the more liberal areas of Kentucky, is it not? Its not surprising--it would be surprising if he were not--leading there.

    2:32 PM, December 03, 2007  
    Blogger Eric In Manassas said...

    And Mitch McConnell is an entrenched incumbent with very high name recognition and a strong base throughout Kentucky. Name recognition plays the biggest role at this point in any election. So in that light being tied in Louisville is nothing to scoff at.

    2:57 PM, December 03, 2007  
    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    Greg Stumbo also has a very high name ID, being the holder of a statewide office, running for Lt. Governor earlier this year, and being directly involved in the Fletcher case. If McConnell enjoys 99% name ID, I can't imagine Greg Stumbo's is anywhere south of 85%.

    3:18 PM, December 03, 2007  
    Blogger Eric In Manassas said...

    I'm not nearly as sure of that as you are. I know a lot of polls show that most people can't name both of their senators and the State Attorney General is likely to have even less name recognition. I know until I started follow politics about 4 years ago I couldn't name my Lieutenant Governor, much less my Attorney General. Polls show fairly large segments of the population can't tell you who Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee are, and they are running for President.

    3:36 PM, December 03, 2007  
    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    Fair enough, but there is also a difference between being asked, "Who is your state's attorney general?", and being provided with his name and asking for an opinion of him. I think more people would say that they recognized the name "Greg Stumbo" than would be able to answer "Who is your attorney general?".

    3:44 PM, December 03, 2007  
    Blogger Eric In Manassas said...

    Yes, I would tend to agree with that. However, it does make a difference in polling if you recognize two names but only attach meaning to one of them. Let's take David Hasselfhoff for example, most people probably recognize the name. Do they know what he was famous for though? It's the same thing with Stumbo. They might recongize the name, but if they don't know what he did in office that's going to put him at a disadvantage compared to McConnell at least initially.

    3:54 PM, December 03, 2007  
    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    Sure, but that's how name ID is tallied, and I would guess its north of 85%, especially among likely voters.

    4:46 PM, December 03, 2007  
    Blogger Eric In Manassas said...

    Well, I'm going to have to disagree with you, but that's purely speaking from my anecdotal evidence. I'd be suprised if he was anywhere near 85% name recognition this far out of it. You might have a point with likely voters, but this being a Presidential cycle you'll get a lot more people out there that have very little knowledge of politics. Meaning that name recognition counts for a lot, even among people that aren't as likely to vote in your average election.

    4:50 PM, December 03, 2007  
    Blogger Josh I said...

    I love that Greg Stumbo is compared -- for any reason -- to The Hoff.

    5:44 PM, December 03, 2007  
    Blogger The Sleep said...

    Unfortunately with Stumbo low name ID may be keeping his numbers a bit high, since whatever he claims, I don't really believe that voters would be unaffected by a barrage of negative ads, given his past. So IF his name ID is low, it probably will only come up along with a big surge in his negatives. I also agree with VA that tied in Louisville is not good news. I think the moral of this story is that Stumbo is not the candidate we want. I don't know much about the others but I would say better to start off with someone with low name ID which can be brought up without driving up his negatives.

    1:24 AM, December 04, 2007  
    Blogger The Sleep said...

    Incidentally, since that last comment was a bit Machiavellian in its focus on the horserace, I should add that given Stumbo's past I don't think he deserves support in a primary (were I from Kentuck), whatever his electability, and even in a general election against McConnell it would be hard to be very enthusiastic. If there were a Republican candidate with that kind of past, we would rightly have a field day.

    1:33 AM, December 04, 2007  

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