Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races

Keeping a close eye on developments in the 2008 U.S. Senate races

Monday, April 02, 2007

Monday Night Rundown

  • Idaho: It looks like Democratic former Congressman Larry LaRocco will be getting in the race to challenge the Republican nominee for Senate in 2008, be it Larry Craig or whoever else might win the primary, with Craig's re-election bid status in question. Quick bio on LaRocco: elected to Congress in 1990, but lost his seat in the '94 GOP tidal wave; was the Democrats' 2006 nominee for Lt. Gov. of Idaho. Sources say a formal announcement should come by mid-April.

  • Colorado: It looks like conservative wild card radio talk show host Dan Caplis might not be so serious about entering the GOP Senate primary scrum, so suggests Colorado Confidential. While the CO-GOP is losing candidates as fast as it gained potential competitors, the hope for a nasty Schaffer-Suthers primary still lingers.

  • Think Progress catches several Republicans, including 2008 Senators Norm Coleman, Susan Collins, Pete Domenici, Mitch McConnell, Pat Roberts, Ted Stevens, and John Warner, exhibiting rather blatant hypocrisy regarding legislative pork.

  • Alabama: Sack Sessions questions Jeff Sessions' misplaced priorities, with video.

  • Senate 2008 Guru's statistical trend of the day, courtesy of kos:

    March 2007
    Republican 31.5
    Democrat 38.1

    March 2006
    Republican 34.0
    Democrat 36.7

    March 2005
    Republican 37.2
    Democrat 38.7
    Between March 2005 and March 2007, the Dems dipped from 38.7 to 38.1, that 0.6 translating to 1.5% of the Democratic-identifying population lost. During the same period, Republicans plummeted from 37.2 to 31.5, that 5.7 translating to a whopping 15.3% of the GOP-identifying population lost. There is no way to spin this, no alternate perspective - this is just bad for the Republicans.


    Blogger Blue South said...

    What will be interesting about the partisan identification numbers is what the trend is like a year from now. If the overall trend continues then 08 will be as good as 06. If it levels off then we might be looking at a tough fight.

    Or we could be looking at a leveling off, but still enough of an edge to win big.

    11:14 PM, April 02, 2007  
    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    There's no way to spin it--its obviously bad news for Republicans.

    That said, the GOP base turned out in 2006; the problem is we got killed by independents and moderates. Some states where Bush won Independents in 2004 lost independents by as much as 20 points in 2006. Its no coincedence that the only state that the GOP won Independents in in 2006 was Tennessee (besides Rhode Island, which is lopsidedly Democratic).

    Even with the decreased party registration numbers in 2007, the races will still be won and lost in the middle. A candidate can make up lackluster base support with support from the middle. It doesn't work the other way.

    Its, to be sure, a tougher fight with less base support in 2008 than in previous years. But that doesn't count the GOP out of any race. (Just a note, I didn't say that you said it counted the GOP out).

    7:14 AM, April 03, 2007  
    Blogger Blue South said...

    hat tip to kos.

    Defazio is considering a Senate run, but (as in the past) is hesitant to do so because he doesnt want to raise the needed funds

    1:23 PM, April 03, 2007  

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