Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races

Keeping a close eye on developments in the 2008 U.S. Senate races

Monday, September 10, 2007

Monday Shorts

  • Nebraska: Chuck Hagel made it official; he is retiring at the end of this term. I doubt we'll see a Democratic primary; I think Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey will defer to former Senator Bob Kerrey if Kerrey runs, or run himself if Kerrey doesn't. The Republican side, however, should see a heated primary with names like Bruning, Flynn, Raimondo, Daub, and Johanns.

  • Idaho: Larry Craig has filed papers to have his guilty plea withdrawn. In the meantime, I'll operate under Craig's staff's doctrine of "expect a resignation at the end of the month unless we hear something new to the contrary." (Given Craig's back-and-forth consideration over legal maneuvering, I'm surprised no enterprising blogger has Photoshopped Craig's face over Kevin Kline's for an "In & Out" parody graphic.)

  • Virginia: Will popular former Governor Mark Warner enter the 2008 Senate race on Thursday?

  • Colorado: Backwards Bob Schaffer will face another significant hiccup in his 2008 Senate race: a Republican primary opponent in the person of Delta County Commissioner Wayne Wolf. Good times.

  • SSP's James L. looks at Governors' success rates running for Senate, especially salient with former Governors Bob Kerrey (NE), Jeanne Shaheen (NH), and Mark Warner (VA) all considering Senate bids for 2008. James finds that, over the ten cycles from '86 to '04, Governors have an almost two-thirds rate of victory.


    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    I wonder if Rep. Tom Allen agree's with's ad that labels four-star Marine General David Petraeus as a traitor. After all, he is bought and paid for by the far-left group: supporters have contributed over $108,000 to Democratic presidential candidates this year through the group�s political action committee, according to Federal Election Commission records.


    Tom Allen of Maine, has received money from the group, though the amount he has received, almost $250,000, makes up nearly half of the group�s total campaign contributions this year.

    Tom Allen has recieved more money from than all of the Presidential candidates combined. Why would Maine voters throw out an independent voice like Susan Collins in favor of someone like that?

    8:27 AM, September 11, 2007  
    Blogger Senate2008Guru said...

    va blogger - this is why you have zero credibility.

    1) The ad does NOT call Petraeus a "traitor." The word "traitor" doesn't even show up in the ad, which you can see for yourself right here. So, va blogger, you are a liar. What the ad actually does is question whether or not Petraeus will accurately report on the level of violence in Iraq and the success or failure of the surge. The ad also highlights several reports that says the surge is failing and violence continues to increase, lest Petraeus reports otherwise. (And if va blogger, in his infinite glibness, is going to say "Hey, but they're name-calling him 'General Betray-Us'," I would offer that if he doesn't tell the truth about the situation in Iraq (and, yeah, he's not counting car bombs in the death count, etc.), then it is a betrayal of the American people's trust!

    2) I know! Icky. A bunch of people who subscribe to MoveOn's e-mail list and really want the War in Iraq to end contributed money to Tom Allen's campaign because Susan Collins has not worked to effectively end the War in Iraq. Icky! I hate when individuals contribute to candidates they support! Let's demonize it!

    3) Susan Collins is NOT an independent voice for Maine. She is a dishonest voice. She keeps trying to liken her position on Iraq to Olympia Snowe's for political cover, but Snowe's position and Allen's position are very similar while Collins' position is closer to George W. Bush's.

    4) If you're gonna chirp right-wing talking points, at least include the link to where you're plagiarizing it from so we can all enjoy it.

    10:39 AM, September 11, 2007  
    Blogger JeremiahTheMessiah said...

    I'm just wondering, how articles can say Petraeus is looking at downsizing numbers in Iraq and then he comes back to say the surge is working. Working, not worked. If it had worked, the success from the surge would be complete. Working implies it is still vital to finishing the goals that premised the surge. Robert Gates is even seriously looking at drawing down troop levels in Iraq.

    Senate guru, I hope you pick up rasmussen's numbers for Minnesota and Virginia senate in your next post.

    11:19 AM, September 11, 2007  
    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    What right-wing talking points are you referring to? The quotes I used are purely objective and are only reporting numbers.

    And saying that Petraeus has betrayed us, the American people, is calling Petraeus is a traitor. Words carry weight, S2G. It is not a lie to interpret's message here. Glibly referring to a four-star marine general as a traitor is something that should be taken seriously, especially when it comes a political organization that has many candidates, such as Tom Allen, in their back pocket.

    11:56 AM, September 11, 2007  
    Blogger Johnny C said...

    Va Blogger back in August discussing contributions to Republican candidates:

    "You are attempting to lower the bar for accepting donations by trying to link the negative aspect of whoever gives money to the person they gave it to. It doesn't have to stop with crimes. Soon, you'll be saying, "X donor gave $1,000 to Chuck Hagel, and this donor also supports the war. Therefore, Chuck Hagel supports the war, unless he gives the $1,000 back". Donations don't work that way, for either party."

    Hey But Va Blogger please don't let intellectual honesty, integrity, or your own opinions get in the way of good spin.

    Your current argument is absurd and you know that you were right a month ago: it is wrong to assume that a receipent of a contributions shares every belief of the contributor. You are way off base today and obviously spouting a foolish talking point.

    You know it would be interesting to read your real views and your real take on these races but I guess your job as a paid blogger doesn't let you take that kind of break from partisan spinning does it.

    1:50 PM, September 11, 2007  
    Blogger Johnny C said...

    Oh and what do you mean by the statement "Someone like that?"

    Do you mean someone who accepts campaign contributions?

    I guess Collins must be desperate when she can't run on her own record. Can't run against the actual public views and record of her opponent and is left running against the assumed views of one of her opponents donors.

    Collins must be in a lot more trouble than I thought.

    1:53 PM, September 11, 2007  
    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    There's quite a large difference between $1,000 from a single contributor and over a quarter of a million dollars from a group that came as a result of an active participation with the organization. Tom Allen has allied himself with, far beyond the usual relationship between a contributor and a candidate. I think the voters of Maine have a right to know whether that allyship is due to political opportunism, or because he believes what the group says, such as General Petraues betraying the American people.

    2:10 PM, September 11, 2007  
    Blogger Senate2008Guru said...

    va blogger - keep piling on the lies.

    "And saying that Petraeus has betrayed us, the American people, is calling Petraeus is a traitor. ... Glibly referring to a four-star marine general as a traitor ..."

    va blogger - you're the only one referring to Petraeus as a traitor. Saying that Petraeus "betrayed us" is calling him a "liar" not a "traitor" - and if he's undercounting deaths in Iraq and understating the level of violence in Iraq, then he is lying to us.

    va blogger - it's also hilarious when you make an argument as a matter of principle (donors don't reflect on the candidate), and then it's thrown back in your face, and then you claim it's a matter of degrees! You really look stupid there., like a majority of the American people want the War to end - they encourage individuals to contribute to candidates who will achieve that policy goal. And individual Americans choose to contribute. Drives you nuts, va blogger, huh?

    2:49 PM, September 11, 2007  
    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    How can you say they're not calling Petraeus a traitor? They are saying he betrayed the American people. They are saying he betrayed his country. How is that any different than calling him a traitor? Is that really your defense of the ad?

    And as I said (and you ignored), Tom Allen worked with the organization to raise that money.

    3:03 PM, September 11, 2007  
    Blogger Johnny C said...

    Gee Va Blogger,

    $1000 is it. As I am sure you recall you made the above statement when discussing Alan Fabian and his over one quarter million dollars worth of campaign contributions. But hey please don't let facts get in the way of a good smear we know Rove and the rest of Bush Co. never do.

    It would be so nice if you could drop the partisan gamesmanship for just one post but alas I guess it is asking to much to ask you to try to at least correctly state the facts and maintain a basic level of honesty.

    3:07 PM, September 11, 2007  
    Blogger Johnny C said...

    Va Blogger,

    You are just being silly now. Yes Allen worked with a group that opposses the war to raise money for a campaign that opposses the war.

    That in no way means he shares all of their views or is responsible for their thoughts.

    You screamed a while ago that it was unfair to hold Collins to account for the sexist rant of Lance (who is on her paid staff) because she herself did not make the statements. If one is not responsible for the views of a paid campaign internet coordinator on his blog how can you possible say with a straight face that Allen is accountable for the views of Collins never apologized for Lance's obviously inappropriate remarks and you never called on her to clarify her position. You are grasping here trying to make an issue out of nothing.

    I'll say it again, if Collins feels she can't run on her own record or at least against her actual opponent she is in more trouble then it appears.

    3:14 PM, September 11, 2007  
    Blogger Senate2008Guru said...

    va blogger - I'll use small words:

    "How can you say they're not calling Petraeus a traitor? They are saying he betrayed the American people. They are saying he betrayed his country. How is that any different than calling him a traitor? Is that really your defense of the ad?"

    They are questioning if Petraeus betrayed us. And how did he betray us? By lying about the situation in Iraq! He's not a traitor - he's not selling us out to the enemy. But he is betraying our trust - lying to us!

    The ad questions Petraeus' honesty about the situation in Iraq, not his loyalty to our country. Liar - not traitor, va blogger. Re-read the ad as many times as you have to. It won't change that you're lying about its content, va blogger.

    3:44 PM, September 11, 2007  

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