Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races

Keeping a close eye on developments in the 2008 U.S. Senate races

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Wednesday Tidbits

  • Bob Corker and Norm Coleman are both being eyed as the next head of the NRSC. Jim Talent of Missouri was also eyed for the gig for this election cycle before he got knocked out by Senator Claire McCaskill. In other words, Bob Corker may be the frontrunner, as Coleman's re-election is in high jeopardy. My first instinct is that a piece of furniture would be a better Chair than either John Ensign is or Elizabeth Dole was. But the conventional wisdom was that Ensign would be far superior to Dole. Hopefully Corker (or whoever is next) will just be more of the same as we look ahead to 2010.

  • Oregon: Gordon Smith is getting slammed in the media, both local and national, for his integrity-free flip-flop on Trent Lott's racist sentiments. He is "Say Anything" Senator Smith for a reason. (P.S. To KVAL-Eugene, KATU-Portland, and The Olympian, who ran the headline "Democrats accuse Smith of flip-flop on Lott" - it's not an accusation by the Democrats, as though it's a partisan attack or anything up for debate; it's a statement of fact. He flip-flopped. There's no debate. Please properly portray the situation as such.)

  • Maine: Jeezum Crow! Less than a week after the Kennebec Journal ran a pro-Susan-Collins letter to the editor written by a College Republican chapter Chair without identifying him as such, the same paper runs another pro-Susan-Collins letter to the editor written by a Republican state legislator again without identifying him as such! Are the Kennebec Journal's editors incredibly lazy or incredibly partisan?

  • Mississippi: Trent Lott officially resigned at 11:30pm last night. Expect an appointment by Republican Governor Haley Barbour in the next ten days, followed by a court battle when Barbour officially schedules the special election for Election Day 2008 but the state Attorney General argues that a special must be scheduled within 100 days of the Lott resignation.

  • Kentucky: Will state Attorney General Greg Stumbo return to the familiar confines of the state Legislature rather than run for Senate in 2008? We may know tomorrow. Meanwhile, BlueGrassRoots wonders how many "last chances" Mitch McConnell will give on Iraq.

  • New Mexico: Republican Senate candidate Steve Pearce could see us with a troop presence in Iraq for 50 years. Great.

  • Texas: Is the Lone Star State ready to go blue? A 61% GOP-performing state legislative district just elected a Democrat with over 52% of the vote. It is a promising omen for State Representative and Lieutenant Colonel Rick Noriega.

  • 3 Comments:

    Blogger Neal said...

    My 2008 US Senate analysis prediction.

    Blue State Democrats- Biden(DE),Durbin(IL),Kerry(MA),Levin(MI),Lautenberg(NJ),and Reed(RI) plus Red/Purple State Democrats- Pryor(AR),Harkin(IA),Baucus(MT),Johnson(SD)and Rockefeller(WV) are in the safe collumn.
    They won their previous Senate Races by landslide margins. They are faced with token opposition.

    Landrieu(LA) is the only Democratic Senator that is vulnerable. LA is trending Republican and Landrieu won her previous Senate Races by narrow margins.

    On the Republican side.
    red State Republicans
    Sessions(AL),Chambliss(GA),Roberts(KS),Cochran(MS),Inhofe(OK),Graham(SC),Alexander(TN),Cornyn(TX),Enzi(WY)and Barrasso(WY)are in the safe column due to lack of top tier challengers.

    Stevens(AK),McConnell(KY)and Dole(NC) are the three red state Republican senator that are vulnerable- Stevens(AK)has the scandals,McConnell(KY)-national issues. Dole(NC)-lackluster campaign and poll numbers. Stevens gets Murkowskied- republicans hold onto Alaska. McConnell survives due to Swiftboating. Dole(NC) is most likely to lose.

    That leaves us Blue State Republicans and OPEN seat Races.

    Regarding the open seat Races-
    Mississippi,Idaho,and Nebraska are in the Republican favored collumn. solid Red States-

    Colorado,New Mexico,and Virginia are in the Democratic Favored collumn. Battleground States- Strong Democrats and Weak Republicans. New Mexico has a strong Democratic electorate- Hispanics.Native Americans- population in ABQ/Santa Fe area is strong- Favors Democrats- Democratic Nominee Tom Udall is highly popular. Colorado and Virginia are trending Democratic. The Democratic Nominee in VA is a popular former Governor.

    Blue State Republicans.
    Collins-ME and Smith(OR) are in the Republican favored collumn. Collins and Smith(OR) are personally popular in their home state and won relection in 2002 by a double digit margin.

    Coleman(MN) is in a tossup and Sununu(NH)is Democratic Favored. IN NH- Democrats have a top tier challenger(a popular former Governor) and NH leans Democratic.

    Looking at the battleground States- the top ten list includes.
    1)Virginia(R-D)
    2)New Mexico(R-D)
    3)New Hamphsire-(R-D)
    4)Colorado-(R-D)
    5)Louisiana-(D-?
    6)Minnesota-(R-?
    7)North Carolina(R-?
    8)Oregon(R)
    9)Maine(R)
    10)Kentucky/Alaska

    12:48 PM, December 20, 2007  
    Blogger Neal said...

    2008 US Senate Ratings.

    Safe Democratic
    1)Rhode Island
    2)Delaware
    3)West Virginia
    4)Massachusetts
    5)Illinios
    6)Michigan
    7)Montana
    Democratic Favored
    8)South Dakota
    9)Arkansas
    10)Virginia-(DEM GAIN)
    11)Iowa
    12)New Mexico-(DEM GAIN)
    13)New Jersey
    Leans Democratic.
    14)New Hampshire(DEM GAIN)
    15)Colorado(DEM GAIN)
    16)Louisiana
    Tossup
    17)Minnesota(R-D)
    Leans Republican
    18)North Carolina
    19)Oregon
    20)Maine
    Republican Favored
    21)Kentucky
    22)Alaska
    23)Idaho
    24)Nebraska
    25)Mississippi(B)
    Safe Republican
    26 Wyoming(B)
    27 Oklahoma
    28 Texas
    29 Georgia
    30 Alabama
    31 Tennessee
    32 South Carolina
    33 Kansas
    34 Mississippi(A)
    35 Wyoming(A)

    3:06 PM, December 20, 2007  
    Blogger Neal said...

    2008 US Senate Races- Battleground States.
    1)Virginia- +D
    Warner(D)61%
    Gilmore(R) 38%
    2)New Mexico +D
    Udall(D)58%
    Wilson(R)41%
    3)New Hampshire
    Shaheen(D)56%
    Sununu(R) 43%
    4)Colorado
    Udall(D)53%
    Schaffer(R)46%
    5)Lousiana
    Landrieu(D)51%
    Kennedy(R)48%
    6)Minnesota
    Coleman(R)51%
    Franken(D) 48%
    7)Oregon
    Smith(R)53%
    Merkley(D)46%
    8)Maine
    Collins(R)56%
    Allen(D)43%

    5:07 PM, December 20, 2007  

    Post a Comment

    << Home