Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races

Keeping a close eye on developments in the 2008 U.S. Senate races

Thursday, May 10, 2007

Below the Mason-Dixon

  • Louisiana: Remember earlier in the week when Louisiana Secretary of State Jay Dardenne was called out for using racially-charged language? Well, a reminder that Dardenne is shoring up his bona fides:

    One of the first things that Republican Secretary of State Jay Dardenne did after taking office was to immediately purge 86,000 voters from the rolls, 75% of which were Democrats. Now, he has engaged the assistance of the Republican Party Chairman to oppose legislation that would allow many of the displaced Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita storm victims from participating in the upcoming election process.
    Nothing like a state's chief election management officer inhibiting democracy to endear him to the masses. (HT: pointecoupeedemocrat)

    So, let's sum up. Mary Landrieu is the most vulnerable Democratic Senator in recent history. Who do the Republicans have to challenge her? Hmmmm... Bobby Jindal is running for Governor. GOP Congressmen Charles Boustany and Jim McCrery have both taken their names out of the running. GOP Congressman Richard Baker has a whopping $66,000 cash-on-hand. And Jay Dardenne, who is already polling significantly behind the vulnerable Landrieu, is embarrassing himself. In fact, the only Republicans who have demonstrated any interest are Woody Jenkins and Suzanne Haik Terrell, the two Republicans Landrieu has already defeated. It's like the LA-GOP and NRSC are standing at a microphone mumbling, "Is this thing on?"

  • North Carolina: Blue NC has funny dancing graphics of Elizabeth Dole - oh, and she bumblingly politicized the American Red Cross and the Navy's OLF plan.

  • I know I'm only the 8,653rd person on the blogosphere to say it, but Bill Richardson's new ads are outstanding.


    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    Yeah, its looking pretty bad in Louisiana. I mean, its already May. The election is in November. We only have six months to find a suitible candidate. I sure hope we are able to pull a rabbit out of our hat.

    11:30 AM, May 10, 2007  
    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    Holy shit! That's right! The election is 2008! What a bunch of squandering failures the LA GOP is, not even fielding a candidate 18 months ahead of the election. We might as well just give up and prep for beating Landrieu in 2014.

    By the way, please, please, tell me your going to include in your next Maine update that Tom Allen is polling "significantly behind" Susan Collins. Consistency, my ass.

    11:33 AM, May 10, 2007  
    Blogger Senate2008Guru said...

    va blogger: I believe I noted back on Tuesday that Tom Allen was polling significantly behind Collins, 57-32. I also posted reasons why I didn't think it was such a terrible starting point. So what's your problem?

    Also, again, I'll ask that you refrain from gratuitous cursing. It's just unnecessary.

    If you've heard of some possible GOP challenger in Louisiana that no one knows about yet, you're certainly encouraged to share.

    11:46 AM, May 10, 2007  
    Blogger Sean said...

    Landrieu hasn't won landslides, and the other time she ran in a Presidential election year was 1996, when their Presidential candidate had much more appeal to Southerners than Barak Obama or the junior Senator from New York. If I were you, I wouldn't be thrilled with the prospect of a rematch.

    3:51 PM, May 10, 2007  
    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    You noted the results of the poll, but you never said he was polling significantly behind. You went straight from the results of the poll into a desperate spin on why its really not that bad that he's losing by 25 points, and even in his own Congressional district.

    And I'm willing to bet real money that you will never make a reference to Allen polling "significantly behind" Collins in the future, despite the fact you've already done it for Dardenne on several occasions.

    As for possible challengers, there are several that we know of, and others that could pop up between now and the end of the year. Keep in mind, we have 18 months until Election Day. To assume that no strong candidate will challenge Landrieu because no one has in the first months of 2007 is beyond ridiculous.

    For instance, in 2006, both Sherrod Brown and Michael Bouchard ran for Senate after saying they wouldn't. Its also interesting how you continually make references to Mike Easley, and joined the draft DeFazio bandwagon, after they said "no". So apparently, when a strong Democrat passes on a race, they just need you to change their mind. When a strong Republican (like Boustany) says "no", then they're out and its a recruitment failure.

    And then there's Richard Baker, who is the number one pick to run for the seat (after Jindal, obviously). Polling already has him beating Landrieu in media markets where their name ID is equal (something Tom Allen can't say). As for his fundraising, you dramatically overestimate the importance of the 1st quarter in a non-election cycle. For purposes of comparison, Bob Casey raised $75K in the first quarter of 2005, and had under $100K cash on hand, and he was an announced candidate by March and was running in a more expensive state. Brad Miller, a candidate that you've touted on this blog, raised a fraction more than Baker in the first quarter, and has a fraction more in cash on hand, yet you don't discount his chances based on fundraising. And let's not forget that, by this time in 2005, winning candidates like Jim Webb, Jon Tester, Sheldon Whitehouse, and Sherrod Brown weren't even in the race yet, so they would have raised zero dollars in the first quarter. Richard Baker remains the strongest candidate, he hasn't said no, and his fundraising does not indicate anything.

    As for Jay Dardenne, you have a LONG way to go from liberal blogs smearing him to a credible attack before you can claim that he's "embarassing himself". He's a Republican. You will never approve of his actions. He remains not only a strong candidate, but one that polls better against Landrieu than Tom Allen does against Collins, and (according to Rasmussen) than Al Franken does to Norm Coleman.

    9:33 PM, May 10, 2007  

    Post a Comment

    << Home