Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races

Keeping a close eye on developments in the 2008 U.S. Senate races

Saturday, November 03, 2007

Saturday Tidbits

  • To hit what I promise will be our last Expand the Map! ActBlue page goals for a little while, we only need $109 more for Andrew Rice, $44 more for Larry LaRocco, and $45 more for Rick Noriega. So close! Please, please, please, please contribute if you can. Thanks sooooo much!

  • Stu Rothenberg sees seven Republican-held seats at "considerable risk" at this point, calling it a "huge number this early in the cycle" while noting that only one Democratic seat, Louisiana, is also at "considerable risk."

  • New Mexico: Might Congressman Tom Udall announce a Senate run TODAY?

  • Oklahoma: At this point, you almost have to think that Jim Inhofe prefers that children be sick.

  • Maine: The latest Critical Insights poll puts the Susan Collins-Tom Allen race at 54-34. Still an uphill climb, but still very winnable.

  • Louisiana: Prostitute-lovin' David Vitter may be forced to testify in a court case involving the D.C. Madam. Maybe when Viter is called to the stand, he can talk about how he cheated on his wife with hookers while actually trying to get his wife pregnant, and then how the prostitute-soliciting marriage-vow-ignoring philanderer put his kids front-and-center in his campaign commercials where he touted his family values. Or maybe the loathsome hypocrite will just plead the fifth.

  • 20 Comments:

    Blogger JeremiahTheMessiah said...

    "1. Rep. Udall enters the NM-SEN race.
    2. Mayor Begich enters the AK-SEN race.
    3. Senator Cochran retires, possibly creating a power vacuum in the Republican party, meanwhile Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove or Former Attorney General Mike Moore decide to run for the Democrats."
    -Me a few diaries back.

    I listed three possibilities that could significantly shift the dynamics of the US Senate races in 2008. It looks like number one is coming true.

    1:38 PM, November 03, 2007  
    Blogger Josh I said...

    Why is Allen having such a tough time against Collins?

    1:43 PM, November 03, 2007  
    Blogger Senate2008Guru said...

    I think Collins is still enjoying the reflected glow of Olympia Snowe. It's still too early, a year out, for Allen to really be sticking it to Collins, highlighting how different Collins and Snowe are and how much Collins: 1) supports Bush blank-check-style and 2) is dishonest with the voters of Maine. As that stuff actually gets laid out, we'll see the gap narrow.

    1:53 PM, November 03, 2007  
    Blogger Neal said...

    Is their a possibility that a Begich running for the Senate can force Stevens into voluntary retirement. Stevens could end up retiring- considering his age and Republicans are going to lose seats in the Seat- Stevens is no longer the most powerful member of the Senate.

    2:24 PM, November 03, 2007  
    Blogger Senate2008Guru said...

    Stevens, like John Warner, might be old enough that he'd take another term if it was easy, but doesn't have the energy for a tough campaign battle - as such, I think Mark Begich announcing (and the sooner the better) would increase the likelihood of a Stevens retirement.

    2:57 PM, November 03, 2007  
    Blogger JeremiahTheMessiah said...

    I'd rather run against a Senator who is barely maintaining a net positive in his approval ratings, while a corruption scandal is pulling him down like an anchor, than against somebody with none of those rolling against him or her. Especially in a state like Alaska.

    3:01 PM, November 03, 2007  
    Blogger Anthony_Distler said...

    It IS funny, because I think the only way the Dems pick up Alaska is if Ted Stevens decides to run. A Stevens retirement means the seat stays with the Republicans

    3:04 PM, November 03, 2007  
    Blogger JeremiahTheMessiah said...

    Sorry, I meant to add, I'd rather run against him, and hold off announcing for that reason. He'll build up a warchest, and it will slowly kill the opportunity for someone to run a winning primary campaign against him.

    As for Susan Collins, the campaign hasn't REALLY started. Allen announced in May, it has been 7 months and we have 12 to go. Collins has the worst yet to come for her.

    3:08 PM, November 03, 2007  
    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    Well, true, but Collins also hasn't begun campaigning yet either. Assuming the numbers will get worse for her is quite an assumption, especially given how favorable she's viewed (and therefore how much benefit of the doubt she'll recieve) from voters.

    9:37 PM, November 03, 2007  
    Blogger JeremiahTheMessiah said...

    Well, Collins is better known than Allen. Allen is also setting up to give her more of a challenge than she has seen yet. It seems rather self explanatory.

    11:25 PM, November 03, 2007  
    Blogger Matthew said...

    A vote for Collins is a vote for McConnell's leadership.... I need say no more than that.

    1:27 AM, November 04, 2007  
    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    So Matthew, what you're saying is that Maine voters should vote for literally any Democrat before they vote for Susan Collins? Somehow, I don't think that reflects reality.

    8:11 AM, November 04, 2007  
    Blogger The Sleep said...

    Reading accounts of Udall's speech yesterday, I don't see any way he refuses to run now. He's generated too much momentum, his flirtation is seen as having convinced Denish to stay out, all told it would in fact be pretty bad for him to walk away now. However he's saying he needs two weeks to decide. Perhaps this is just a way of generating further free media and putting emphasis on the grass-roots nature of the movement that drafted him. But my own utterly non-professional opinion puts the percentage chance of him getting in in the nineties.

    12:22 PM, November 04, 2007  
    Blogger Senate2008Guru said...

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    12:55 PM, November 04, 2007  
    Blogger Senate2008Guru said...

    Remember that the polls were so bad for Tom Davis that he ultimately decided to just stay out of the Senate race in Virginia altogether. Perhaps Tom Udall is trying to wait a couple weeks in order to cement both Pearce and Wilson in the race to open up both of their seats and make sure they have their divisive primary. No reason for Udall to get in too soon, as long as he gets in.

    1:16 PM, November 04, 2007  
    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    S2G, don't even pretend to try and kid yourself. Tom Davis was never imtimidated by Mark Warner. Tom Davis dropped out because his party made it clear they wanted Jim Gilmore to be the nominee.

    1:50 PM, November 04, 2007  
    Blogger Matthew said...

    VA Blogger,

    That's the argument that Tom Allen has to make... that a vote for Collins is a vote for the status quo... the only way we change Iraq policy is if Collins is shown the exit door... it is as simple as that.

    Matthew

    7:21 PM, November 04, 2007  
    Blogger Matthew said...

    Top 50 movie on Amazon...

    http://www.noendinsightmovie.com/

    7:28 PM, November 04, 2007  
    Blogger Matthew said...

    VA Blogger said, "S2G, don't even pretend to try and kid yourself. Tom Davis was never imtimidated by Mark Warner. Tom Davis dropped out because his party made it clear they wanted Jim Gilmore to be the nominee."

    VA Blogger... if Tom Davis can't get his wife elected, he wouldn't have a snowball's chance in hell at winning a United States Senate seat...

    10:14 PM, November 05, 2007  
    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    Matthew, that statement doesn't even make sense. How does a candidate's spouse's performance in 30-some precincts have any impact on the candidate's performance in 3,000-some precincts?

    3:59 PM, November 06, 2007  

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