Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races

Keeping a close eye on developments in the 2008 U.S. Senate races

Tuesday, March 20, 2007

Shifting Dynamics in Louisiana; More of the Same in New Hampshire

  • Louisiana: Gov. Kathleen Blanco has announced that she will not run for re-election to the Governorship, and popular former Senator John Breaux seems ready to move forward with a bid. How will the newly-shaped 2007 LA-Gov race impact the 2008 LA-Sen race? (Let's assume for the moment that the hooplah over Breaux's residency is put to rest.) There seem to be four possible outcomes, pitting popular Democrat Breaux against popular Republican Jindal:

    1) Breaux wins and re-affirms the standing of Democrats in Louisiana; boosts Mary Landrieu's re-election bid in 2008, whether or not Jindal, now a two-time gubernatorial loser, challenges her.

    2) Breaux narrowly wins, but Jindal remains popular in a narrow defeat and goes on to victoriously challenge Landrieu.

    3) Jindal wins, but it doesn't have an impact on Landrieu's re-election bid as she goes on to defeat a lesser opponent.

    4) Jindal wins and further improves the standing of Republicans in Louisiana, boosting a GOP opponent against Landrieu.

    We still have to wait and see regarding Breaux's formal entry into the Gov race, as well as the formal settling of his residency issue (which, I have to believe, will get settled in short order, or the LA-Dems wouldn't have risked such a gambit). Breaux's entry will shake up Louisiana electoral dynamics in 2007 and 2008, but we won't know how exactly for some time. I'm rooting for option 1.

  • New Hampshire: MSNBC declares Sprintin' John Sununu as "beatable." MSNBC highlights Sununu's overall allegiance to Bush:

    Despite his recent high-profile clashes with Bush, Sununu also voted in support of the president’s positions 96 percent of the time in 2004 and 95 percent of the time in 2003, according to the non-partisan Congressional Quarterly analyses.

    And last week he supported the president by voting against the Democratic resolution which would have ordered Bush to begin withdrawing U.S. forces from Iraq within four months.
    Support of Bush in the mid-90's. Offers rhetoric all over the place regarding Iraq, but votes to stay the course with Bush's policy. I don't think the Granite State will respond positively.


    Blogger Blue South said...

    I think #2 is most likely.

    10:57 PM, March 20, 2007  
    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    Anyone see the poll that had Jindal 30 points up on Breaux?

    10:19 PM, March 21, 2007  

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