Polls, Dollars, and Fun with Numbers
Nebraska: Looks likelier and likelier that we'll see a Bruning v. Hagel Senate primary:
Attorney General Jon Bruning said Monday he led Sen. Chuck Hagel by 9 points in a survey last week of likely Republican voters in a 2008 GOP Senate primary contest.404 people is a relatively small sample size. Nevertheless, Bruning claims to have a significant lead. Let's see Hagel's camp come out with its own numbers to suggest otherwise. This could very well turn into, as the Lincoln Journal Star's Don Walton suggests, "a bitter, even ugly, primary battle."
The poll of 404 Republicans was conducted by Bruning’s pollster, Dresner, Wickers and Associates of San Francisco. In a head-to-head matchup, Bruning led by 47 percent to 38 percent.
Nebraskans are “very troubled” by Hagel’s criticism of President Bush and his support for legislation calling for withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, Bruning said.
Texas: The DSCC commissioned some numbers from Texas. It's a partisan poll, so ingest with all appropriate grains of salt, but the results are quite intriguing:
Republican John Cornyn has lower than expected name recognition for an incumbent US Senator, with 39% of the electorate unable to rate Cornyn either favorably or unfavorably. Overall he is 41% favorable – 19% unfavorable.Almost 2 in 5 "likely voters" are unable to rate Cornyn. That has to reflect poorly on him. It's not like Cornyn is a first-time candidate looking to raise his name ID. If almost 2 out of 5 "likely voters" don't know who this guy is by this point or don't know enough about him to make a judgment, it means that Cornyn has done nothing to stand out or demonstrate his value as a Senator.
Senator Cornyn’s generic reelect versus a Democrat is under 50% (47% Republican John Cornyn - 38% Democratic candidate; 15% undecided).
From the "You're kidding me, right?" department: Republicans are hoping to make political gains off of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's comments on Bush's mismanagement in Iraq. Seriously? Where does the GOP hope to make these gains? The public trusts Democrats over Bush to handle Iraq by a 58-33 margin, oppose Bush's escalation by a 65-35 margin, and even support a troop withdrawal deadline by a 51-46 margin.
Arkansas: In case GOP former Governor Mike Huckabee is considering shifting from the Presidential race to a Senate race, the press is already noting that Senator Mark Pryor is making him look bad in the fundraising department.