Monday (Very) Quick Hits
Georgia: I'll say it again: Not a day goes by where I don't hope that war hero and former Senator Max Cleland will reconsider and run for Senate against Spineless Saxby Chambliss.
"But if I were Mitch McConnell, I'd be very nervous. Because there's a Democratic trend in his state, a new Democratic governor who's going to try to get him, and he is the representative of George Bush and the Iraq war in Kentucky. Good luck!"Indeed.
posted by Senate2008Guru | 3:44 PM
7 Comments:
Kentucky may be turning into a purple state.
We unseated Anne Northup in 2006
We unseated Ernie Fletcher- in 2007
How did the Democrats do in the State Legislatures.
We then unseat Mitch McConnell in 2008.
In 2010- We finally get rid of Jim Bunning-
Kentucky will have two Democratic Senators since 1984.
Thanks for ignoring the rest of the Sabato quote:
My money is on Mitch McConnell because history suggests it ought to be.
As for Neal, don't count on it. Unseating McConnell is a very tall order, and Bunning is likely to retire for the 2010 term. Democrats aren't favored to win either seat, so talk about having two Democratic Senators is insanely premature.
Democrats will have an advantage in the Bunning seat- Heard of Ben Chandler- The GOP's don't have a top tier candidate.
Bunning barely survived in 2004. 2004 was a very Pro Republican atmosphere when it came to the senate. Please VA.
Kentucky can be competitive and Mitch's current approval give reason to hope he can be unseated but this will be a very uphill fight. Also, I really think that everyone needs to stop using the Governor's race as evidence of a blue trend - Ernie Fletcher was corrupt, indicted, and incompetent. The voters were voting against Ernie. It will take a lot of work to turn those protest votes into pro Dem votes in future elections.
It can be done but will take work.
Obviously Mitch is vlunerable but we Ds don't have a candiate yet and Neal I think you are way to optimistic about 2010. Chandler would probably beat Bunning if he stays. If it is open it will be a real toss up and three years out is a little early to call declare the R bench empty. They have Grayson and while he is said to have his eye on the Governors mansion a lot can change in three years the Rs also have 4 Congressmen so expect a real race in KY in 2010.
Thank you, Johnny C. In a lot of places I've been seeing pre-hatched chickens from Kentucky. Search around other blogs and find the Dem presidential nominee winning KY next year, you can count on it. Well, Kerry got 60% of the vote, for crying out loud. Yeah, in '06 we won Louisville, a long-time Repub held D-majority seat. At the same time our team spent $2 or $3 million trying to knock off the Repub in KY-04 and our guy got 43% of the vote. We had a Fighting Dem in KY-02 who ran a pretty good race but didn't quite get 45% of the vote. The state may have moved from blood red to dark purple, but folks, let's not get carried away. This is not yet Va, where we held Bush to 54%. And BTW, seats in the Lege are up next year, not this year, don't ask me why.
Not to be cynical, but doesn't Larry Sabato publish his bowel movements? Here's what he says at his site...
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2008/senate/?state=KY
He states that the seat is likely Republican, but... "if Ben Chandler or Greg Stumbo enter the race, Democrats will hope that Kentuckians will break out their big hats and mint juleps once again, and that the derby might come twice next year."
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