Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races

Keeping a close eye on developments in the 2008 U.S. Senate races

Wednesday, November 07, 2007

Wednesday Tidbits

  • Kentucky: While Mitch McConnell clearly did not do enough for corrupt Ernie Fletcher either to put him over the top in the KY-Gov race (or avoid a landslide, for that matter) or even to appease potential 2008 Senate primary opponent Larry Forgy, he say quite a few nice things about the corrupt loser Fletcher that may come back to haunt him, including saying that Fletcher has "wonderful character" and that Fletcher somehow "won our respect." (Huh?!?!) The huge margin of victory for Governor-elect Steve Beshear as well as the breadth of Kentucky that went blue should serve as a bad omen for McConnell.

    Also serving as a bad omen for McConnell is intensifying rumors that Auditor Crit Luallen is considering a 2008 Senate challenge. Why is that bad news for McConnell? Not only did Luallen just win re-election to the Auditor's office with about 60% of the vote, but a recent Rasmussen poll has Luallen down only 10 points on McConnell in a hypothetical match-up, and a recent Herald-Leader poll has Luallen down only 5 points. In both polls, Luallen holds McConnell to under 50.

  • Louisiana: Another reason to re-elect Senator Mary Landrieu: she secures funding for recovery from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, even when the Bush administration doesn't lift a finger.

  • Minnesota: A brand new Survey USA poll again shows the Democrats breathing down Norm Coleman's neck: Coleman 48, Franken 44; Coleman 49, Ciresi 43.

  • Maine: Tom Allen has an op-ed in the Bangor Daily News where he asks tough questions about Iraq and offers clear positions. If Susan Collins had done either of those things several years ago, perhaps Maine and the U.S. would be better off.

  • North Carolina: Public Policy Polling has the first Democratic primary poll numbers that I've seen: State Senator Kay Hagan at 24%, businessman Jim Neal at 13%, and veteran John Ross Hendrix at 8%. WIth over 50% undecided, obviously this will be a very fluid race.

  • New Jersey: Jersey's state legislative elections gave Republicans no new reasons for optimism for 2008 in a race against Senator Frank Lautenberg, as the State Senate had a net gain of 1 Democrat and the State Assembly had a net gain of only 1 Republican (where Dems will hold at least a 48-32 advantage).

  • Nebraska: The NE-Sen race is getting a Green Party candidate. The guy got 3% in last year's state Auditor race.

  • New Mexico: According to the Santa Fe Reporter:

    WINNERS

    US Rep. Tom Udall, D-NM
    Rep. Tom Udall has announced he’s “reconsidering” a bid for the US Senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici. Buoyed by public polling that shows he’d wallop both of the announced Republican aspirants, Udall also looks like a good bet to beat Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez in the Democratic primary. That’s mostly because Udall’s progressive credentials are untarnished while Chavez’ are, well, tarnished after years of positioning himself as a quasi-Republican mayor. With cousin Mark Udall leading in the polls in Colorado’s open US Senate race, the second generation of America’s greenest political family might be in for a double win.

  • 10 Comments:

    Blogger Neal said...

    Looking at the 2006 Election cycle

    Polls showed that
    Santorum(PA)
    DeWine(OH)
    Chaffee(RI)
    Burns(MT)
    were trailing their Democratic Challengers.
    Talent(MO) was in a neck and neck race.
    Allen(VA)was leading Webb

    Looking at 2008.
    Sununu(NH)is the only vulnerable Republican Incumbent trailing his Democratic Challenger by a comfortable margin.

    Coleman(MN)is in a neck and neck race with both Democratic Challengers- same goes with Smith(OR).

    Collins(ME) is leading her Democratic Challenger by a comfortable margin.

    Looking at Vulnerable Republican Open Seats.
    The Democratic Nominee in Virginia is leading the Republican Nominee by a landslide Double Digit Margin.

    The Democratic Nominee in Colorado is leading the Republican Nominee by a comfortable Single Digit Margin

    In New Mexico- The Top Tier Democratic Candidate is leading both Republican candidates by a landslide Double Digit Margin. While the Second Tier Democratic Candidate is leading both Republican Candidate by a narrow single digit margin.

    3:00 PM, November 07, 2007  
    Blogger Media Czech said...

    every candidate held McConnell under 50%, including Andrew Horne.

    7:31 PM, November 07, 2007  
    Blogger jak said...

    neal/CMBurns/NeKiPa - why must you recapitulate your seemingly superficial understanding of every single competitive race every time you post? Have you ever seen anyone in the history of blogging repeat the same information over and over again as you do? Don't you think most political junkies are already aware of the fundamental dynamics of each race as they develop?

    Now don't get me wrong- we're on the same team, Democratic blue runs through my veins, and I generally support your view- but do you think you could limit your "contributions" to new and original material? It becomes exceedingly tiresome having to scroll through the identical race summary each time I read the comments section. Thanks.

    8:22 PM, November 07, 2007  
    Blogger VA Blogger said...

    Jak, you forgot "nkpolitics", or whatever variation of that he posted under.

    10:28 PM, November 07, 2007  
    Blogger Neal said...

    2008 US Senate Ratings

    Lean Democratic Takeover
    1)Colorado-OPEN
    2)New Hampshire
    3)New Mexico-OPEN
    4)Virginia- OPEN

    Tossup
    1)Minnesota
    2)Ohio

    Lean Democratic Retention'
    1)Lousiana

    Lean Republican Retention
    1)Alaska
    2)Kentucky
    3)North Carolina

    Safe Democratic
    1)Arkansas
    2)Delaware
    3)Illinios
    4)Iowa
    5)Massachusetts
    6)Michigan
    7)Montana
    8)New Jersey
    9)Rhode Island
    10)South Dakota
    11)West Virginia

    Safe Republican
    1)Alabama
    2)Georgia
    3)Idaho
    4)Kansas
    5)Mississippi
    6)Nebraska
    7)Oklahoma
    8)South Carolina
    9)Tennessee
    10)Texas
    11)Wyoming
    12)Wyoming

    10:33 AM, November 08, 2007  
    Blogger JeremiahTheMessiah said...

    Neal, come on. You added a state to the 2008 elections and forgot two.
    Ohio isn't on the slate for 2008.

    Maine and Oregon are still set for November 2008.

    11:55 AM, November 08, 2007  
    Blogger Neal said...

    My bad Jeremaih

    I meant to say Oregon instead of Ohio.

    12:06 PM, November 08, 2007  
    Blogger Neal said...

    Maine would be ranked as a Lean Republican Column

    12:08 PM, November 08, 2007  
    Blogger Liz Fossett said...

    http://www.draftcrit.com was launched yesterday

    1:14 PM, November 08, 2007  
    Blogger jak said...

    Thanks for your cooperation and invaluable insight, Neal. Armed with your irrefutable rankings, I can finally stop reading inferior pundits like Cook, CQPolitics, National Journal, Rothenberg, Sabato, Cillizza, et al.

    I've never found the collapse comment link as useful as I do today.

    1:59 PM, November 08, 2007  

    Post a Comment

    << Home