Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races

Keeping a close eye on developments in the 2008 U.S. Senate races

Sunday, February 10, 2008

January Senate Approval Numbers from Survey USA

SUSA is up with their January numbers. For whatever reason, there are no new numbers up for Massachusetts (John Kerry) and Minnesota (Norm Coleman). For December's numbers for them, visit last month's post.

Republicans:

Mitch McConnell1/22/0812/27/07 11/20/0710/18/079/25/078/21/0711/22/06
Approve49514449515054
Disapprove44424745404339

McConnell's approval is back under 50% and his disapproval upticks. Ugly numbers like that mean vulnerability, especially considering some of McConnell's worst numbers come among independent voters (a stunningly bad 34-58).

Pat Roberts1/22/0812/27/0711/20/0710/18/079/25/078/21/0711/22/06
Approve51565155575451
Disapprove38323836323336

Roberts is really teasing us this month as his approval drops to 51% for the second time in three months. The early fundraising and hustle of Democratic candidate Greg Orman, coupled with Roberts' relatively sagging approval and many other negative marks, make Kansas look like the sleeper pick for a competitive Senate race.

Jeff Sessions1/22/0812/27/0711/20/0710/18/079/25/078/21/0711/22/06
Approve61566054565958
Disapprove29343037343332

Sessions enters the really safe zone.

Gordon Smith1/22/0812/27/0711/20/0710/18/079/25/078/21/0711/22/06
Approve48505249484654
Disapprove41383842424437

Smith, like McConnell, sees his approval back under 50%, and Smith's disapproval is even back over 40%. Good times.

Democrats:

Tom Harkin1/22/0812/27/0711/20/0710/18/079/25/078/21/0711/22/06
Approve58545853535753
Disapprove33383742403540

I'll once again stick with my November comment: "Harkin is looking just comfortable enough for me to say something snarky like, 'I hope Tom Latham does challenge Harkin, just to open up Latham's House seat!'"

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