Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races

Keeping a close eye on developments in the 2008 U.S. Senate races

Monday, February 11, 2008

Monday Rundown

  • Condolences to the family, friends, and constituents of Congressman Tom Lantos.

  • New Mexico: CQPolitics chronicles the many reasons why they moved New Mexico from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Democratic," including a 49% to 33% Dem to GOP registration advantage, an impressive lead in the polls for Congressman Tom Udall, and an impressive lead in fundraising for Udall.

  • Alaska: Another week, another Ted Stevens earmark scandal. This time, documents reveal that a $1.6 million earmark Stevens secured in 2005 was tailored to lead to the purchase of property owned by, guess what, a former Ted Stevens aide-turned-lobbyist, Trevor McCabe. And another former Stevens aide-also-turned-lobbyist, Brad Gilman, acted as the "go-between" for the deal. Seriously, at what point will it simply be a crime to work for Ted Stevens? And how many earmark scandals will it take before Stevens loses his seat on the Appropriations Committee?

  • Tennessee: Former Tennessee state Democratic Party Chair Bob Tuke is reconsidering a 2008 Senate bid against Lamar Alexander after having taken himself out of the running. Something to keep an eye on. (HT: GoldnI)

  • Maine: A bad omen for Susan Collins: the turnout at the Maine Democratic caucuses shattered the previous record, 46,000 yesterday compared with just 17,000 in 2004. Maine Democrats are energized! By comparison, reports had Republican caucus turnout at a mere 5,000.

  • New Jersey: Rumors (just rumors for now) have former NJ-GOP Chair and former state sen. Joseph Kyrillos considering an entry into the 2008 GOP Senate primary, further complicating the picture for current candidates businesswoman Anne Evans Estabrook, state sen. Joseph Pennacchio, and professor Murray Sabrin. The more, the merrier! (HT: Blue Jersey)

  • Both Booman and DKos diarist poblano offer thoughtful analyses of Senator Barack Obama's success in states with 2008 Senate races. poblano's focuses more heavily on the most competitive races, while Booman's looks at tougher southern states. Speaking of Senator Obama, he won his second Grammy last night.

  • Today is the second anniversary of the day on which Dick Cheney shot a 78-year-old man in the face. Does Hallmark make an appropriate card?

  • This is hilarious:


    Blogger Andrew said...

    New poll on NH Senate race -

    Shaheen 54%
    Sununu - 37%

    4:36 PM, February 11, 2008  
    Blogger GSOBadger said...

    The pobiano commentary that you linked has one major error. He said that about x races are decided by x%, and therefore if Obama'scoattails are worth x% that means the Democrats would win x more races. However, this assumes all x races are otherwise won by Republicans. In fact, in a certain number of the races the coattails would only serve to increase a Democratic victory. Since about 2/3 of the races this year are held by Republicans, it would seem that the expected extra pickups would be 2/3x, not x.

    9:24 PM, February 11, 2008  

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